Friday, October 07, 2016
WARNING: the Markets Might Crash HERE AND NOW / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
Stock investing is ultimately based on risk.
The global risk-free rate is the Us 10-Year Treasury. Again, this is the “risk-free” rate for the world. Stocks trade relative to this rate.
The ENTIRE move in the market from the early 2016 lows was predicated on bon yields falling (or bond prices rising). As this occurred, risk became cheaper, forcing stocks higher.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
The Next Recession Looms Large / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Peter_Schiff
Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.
Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks plummeted out of the blue this week, shattering their bull-market uptrends. Gold-futures speculators had been holding excessive long positions for months, weathering all kinds of selling catalysts. But once gold slipped through key support, long-side futures stop losses started to trigger unleashing cascading selling. Understanding this event and its implications is crucial for traders.
This week’s precious-metals carnage was a big surprise, erupting suddenly with no technical warning. Gold had been faring quite well after hitting its latest interim high of $1365 in early July. That was driven by heavy fund buying of gold-ETF shares in the wake of late June’s unexpected pro-Brexit vote. After those big capital inflows dried up, gold consolidated high. At worst by late August it had pulled back 4.1% to $1308.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Sterling Flash Crash Last Night? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Marty_Chenard
Remember flash crashes?
Well, one showed up last night with the Sterling dropping about 10% and then recouping to about a 2% drop.
Here is the question ... Was it really a flash crash or a real exodus out of the Sterling? (In other words, was it a computer trading issue or a trader issue?)
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Friday, October 07, 2016
British Pound Sterling Flash Crash and the Rise of Machine Intelligence (AI) / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently a computer algorithm (dumb AI) crashed sterling during the night, dropping it by about 10% before it mostly recovered but still remains 2% down from where it started. Whilst the media is focused on which person or group of persons could be behind the flash crash, however all are failing to comprehend the bigger picture of what this and other flash crashes represent, computer algorithms / AI's with the ability to bring our civilisation to a juddering halt literally within minutes as my forth coming series of videos on AI mega-trend investing will seek to illuminate how to profit form, because dumb AI's will within a matter of a few short years be starting to exceed human intelligence.
Friday, October 07, 2016
What Tools Does the Fed Have Left and How Could They Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Although the U.S. economy is currently expanding, we cannot rule out the possibility of a significant slowdown in the next few years. Some analysts argue that the Fed would be out of ammunition during the next crisis. Is that true? “Not necessarily,” as it turns out – the whole issue is a bit more complicated. We will now analyze what monetary weapons could the Fed use to stimulate the economy when the next recession strikes. The table below presents a short summary of available tools.
Friday, October 07, 2016
Pound Sterling Flash Crashes. Is the SPX Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Last night’s flash crash in the Pound Sterling should not take us by surprise. It was merely fulfilling its Bearish Pennant objectives. In addition, it was within a Wave 3 of (3) scenario, which would tell us that there would be large gaps in trading as it descends.
ZeroHedge reports, “U.S. equity index futures fell, with European, Asian stocks also declining before the September payrolls data, following the stunning 2-minute "flash crash" meltdown in sterling which plunged as much as 6.1%, the most since Brexit and is set for its biggest weekly loss since 2009.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Sterling Gold Surges 5% In One Minute “Flash Crash” – Up 1.7% In Week As Gilts Sell Off / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Sterling gold surged 5% in less than a minute overnight in Asia with prices rising from £994/oz to £1,043.40/oz as sterling had a massive “flash crash.” Sterling plummeted in the second biggest fall in its history – only slightly less than the collapse after the Brexit vote.
Despite gold’s peculiar, sharp fall in dollar terms on Tuesday and 4.1% loss for the week, sterling gold is another 1.7% higher this week – from £1,010/oz to £1,027/oz – again showing gold’s importance in hedging against currency devaluation.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Market Crash Sound More like Stock Market Trash when you listen to Drs of Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
A small mind is obstinate. A great mind can lead and be led. Alexander CannonEvery few months there is some nonsensical headline that is passed off as news when it should be relegated to the rubbish bin of time. Sometimes it is high oil price that is not good for the market, and then on other occasions, we hear that low oil prices are not good. Then you have the Dance with the Fed and interest rates, which sounds more like a silly girl peeling petals from a flower and murmuring “he loves me, or he loves me not”. If you go back and start from 2006 for example, you will notice that with the passage of each year the headlines are bombastic in nature. However, the outcome is always the same, the masses panic and the smart money comes and laps up all the stocks being sold for next to nothing.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Stock Buybacks Fueling the Stock Market? By How Much? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here's the question of the day: are corporate stock buybacks fueling the stock market?
Let's look at a couple of charts and a news report to help determine the answer.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold Bull Still Intact, Use Pullback to Accumulate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
This week's drop in the gold price has spooked many investors, says money manager Adrian Day, who provides his perspective on the volatility.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
Gold Mining Shares in a World of Hurt / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Dan_Stinson
The HUI is coming unglued on the charts with the index falling below long term chart support at the 200 day moving average in today’s session. It had not been below that key technical indicator since early February of this year.
We are also now seeing the 50 day moving average and the 100 day both moving lower.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold’s Second Waterfall Drop this Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_J_Kosares
We do not often find ourselves jogging the same track as the redoubtable Dennis Gartman who commands untold premiums for his advice, but now, it seems, he is verifying our suspicion of two days ago (Please see “Gold’s waterfall drop might be associated with the big drop in British sterling”) that something is amiss in London gold trading circles. Here is today’s chart – a second waterfall move in the gold market coincident with a second swan dive for the pound and Gartman’s take (snipped from ZeroHedge).
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Path to the White House is Paved by Billions of Dollars / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Walter_Brasch
With a month left before the November general election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are trash-talking each other in a financial race to the White House.
According to the latest filing with the Federal Election Commission, Clinton has raised about $516.8 million for her campaign. Total spending by outside groups and SuperPacs supporting her was an additional $31.7 million; the total spent opposing her was about $40.2 million.
Thursday, October 06, 2016
Wall Street Earnings Recession is no cause for Worry; Stock Market Bull has been ignoring it. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Irony is the form of paradox. Paradox is what is good and great at the same time.Friedrich SchlegelWe could sum it up in two words as to why earnings recession was, is and will be a non-event; Hot Money. However, for some strange reason when it comes to the markets individuals happen to love long explanations even though in most cases the long answers reveal a lot less than the short ones do. So let’s take a look at some of these meaningless statistics.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. In other words, we think that taking profits off the table and closing the previous long positions is a good idea.
On Tuesday, crude oil gave some of earlier gains after news that Iran and Libya have continued to increase production. In these circumstances, light crude slipped to the previously-broken resistance zone, but then closed the day above it. Is this a verification of the breakout?
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Stocks Extend Their Fluctuations, Topping Pattern Or Just Consolidation Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, October 06, 2016
China Might Be Deutsche Bank’s Last Hope / Companies / Credit Crisis 2016
By: John_Mauldin
By Olivier Garret: The pressure has been mounting on Deutsche Bank (DB), with the German government spurning the possibility of a bailout and the stock slumping. DB recently hit a record low.The German titan has been trying to sell assets to raise money to pay the US Department of Justice its record US$14 billion fine. And there have been rumors that Berlin is applying pressure to get the huge fine reduced.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
The West Is Playing a Zero-Sum Game with ISIS / Politics / ISIS Islamic State
By: John_Mauldin
ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism are a threat to the Western world. And so far, we have not really developed any serious defense mechanisms to deal with it. Rather, we are mostly just reacting to seemingly random events.
My friend Dr. Woody Brock is one of the most brilliant game theory specialists that I know. He regularly applies game theory to economics and investing. Here, he analyzes the conflict between the West and ISIS. He says that because of our very values, we end up playing the “game” in a way that leads us to continual frustration.
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Thursday, October 06, 2016
Gold Price to Rally $80 into October 14th? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I admit I missed the GDX move down to 22.93 today, but at the same time it has presented itself with a great opportunity. The chart below is predicting GDX 29.84 by October 14. I am now leveraged, extremely leveraged with options for a strong rally ahead in gold and GDX.
A lot of negative bias now in the precious metals complex has me thinking the other way: and that is a massive short covering rally ahead. The e-wave look and cycles suggest the same. The "nonfarm payrolls report" on Friday could be (likely) the catalyst.
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