Monday, October 10, 2016

Bubble Blind Central Bankers / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

Fed Head Janet Yellen is keeping alive the tradition of her predecessors, Messrs. Greenspan and Bernanke, by showing she is equally as blind-sighted to the bubbles central banks are blowing in the bond and equity markets. During her September press conference, Ms. Yellen stubbornly clung to the misconception that it is only possible to tell if a bubble exists after it bursts. And because of this delusion, in Yellen's eyes ninety-six months of a virtual Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is merely, and I quote, "a modest degree of accommodation." Her blinders are so opaque that she claims to see, "no signs of leverage building up." And her feckless ability to spot market imbalances even resulted in this doozy of a Yellen quote: "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms."

Monday, October 10, 2016

Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The gold trading Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released Friday, shows the peculiarly timed gold sell off and much needed wash out of speculative longs out of the gold futures market last week sets gold up for lower prices, prior to moving higher again.

Monday, October 10, 2016

No Clear Short-Term Direction, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, October 10, 2016

Bank Current Account Overdraft Fees Hit a High, Attacking Careful Customers / Personal_Finance / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that the average two-year tracker rate has increased by 0.07% in just one month, bringing the figures back to July 2016’s level and cancelling out the “base rate effect”.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Ken_Ticehurst

We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.

Monday, October 10, 2016

NFP, Wikileaks, falling momentum, slipping real estate…recipe for correction? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Mesh

The rally in equities resumed for the UK's FTSE and three of the four Eastern indexes on our world watch list (the Shanghai Composite spent the week on holiday celebrating Chinese National Day). Japan's Nikkei was the top week-over-week performer, up 2.49% with Hong Kong's Hang Seng close behind at 2.38%. The US's S&P 500 was the laggard, down 0.67%, which snapped a three-week advance.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Stock Market Pressure Mounting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.

SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Gold and Silver PM Stocks Indices at an Emotionally Challenging Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

This past week there was some panic selling in the PM complex which is what we need to see happen to put in an important low. The HUI hit the 50% retrace at 195 for this first leg up in its new bull market, just under 200, which is an important physiological round number. Many times investor will place their sell/stops just under a round number like 40, 50 or 200 for instance, thinking if a stock drops below that important round number it’s time to exit that position. Many times a drop below these round numbers can be the reversal point for the next rally in the case of an uptrend.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Gold – Commitments of Traders – hedge fund longs liquidate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

Fortunately for we traders, the Commitments of Traders report did at least catch the big move lower on Tuesday of this week so we were able to get a peek inside the market to see what happened to those massive hedge fund long positions during this week’s meltdown in the gold price.

Here is the first chart. Hedge fund outright positions.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Stock Market Down Monday? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The SPX could take a plunge Monday, but the set up is there for a nice rebound into October 14th.  I think we finally get my False Break of the Rising Wedge and the rebound that takes us above 2200 SPX. October 14th should be the high for the year.

GDX and the gold complex are due for a nice rebound rally, but much damage has been done.  A move back into the mid 26.00 area for GDX is the minimum expectation for an October 18 top.  It may take a couple of more days to get kick started as the buyers are hesitant and selling into rallies. 

Monday, October 10, 2016

Fifteen Years Into the Afghan War, Do Americans Know the Truth? / Politics / War on Terror

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Last week marked the fifteenth anniversary of the US invasion of Afghanistan, the longest war in US history. There weren't any victory parades or photo-ops with Afghanistan's post-liberation leaders. That is because the war is ongoing. In fact, 15 years after launching a war against Afghanistan's Taliban government in retaliation for an attack by Saudi-backed al-Qaeda, the US-backed forces are steadily losing territory back to the Taliban.

Monday, October 10, 2016

UK and Forex Markets – Trading in GBP / Currencies / British Pound

By: ....

Forex (short for foreign exchange) trading is a speculative option that has increased in attractiveness over the past few years. Forex brokers offer trading that comes free of commission, and with the chance of making massive gains. It's easy to get going with trading, and forex markets do not have the same negative reputation as some other markets, such as binary options.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago has been having a devastating impact on what was an already a badly damaged Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory after Trump lost the 1st debate, where virtually each day has tended to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity / Stock-Markets / Technology

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst most readership interest is in my regular stock market in-depth analysis that tend to conclude in detailed trend forecast usually covering at least the next 2-3 months and where possible much longer. However, whilst it is useful to know the probable short-term direction of the stock market for trading, accumulation (investing) and distribution (banking profits) purposes, but frankly, I think most people get overly carried away if not obsessed with seeking out short-term market direction.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Trump Campaign in Free Fall Going into 2nd Debate, Expect All Guns Blazing With Nothing to Lose / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The leaked lewd audio tape from a decade ago is having a devastating impact on what was an already crippled Trump campaign that has been on a downward trend trajectory since losing the 1st debate, where virtually each day tends to bring forward more bad news as the mainstream press digs deeper into Trumps past.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Pentagon Begins Low-Intensity Stealth War in Syria / Politics / Syria

By: Mike_Whitney

“Last Wednesday, at a Deputies Committee meeting at the White House, officials from the State Department, the CIA and the Joint Chiefs of Staff discussed limited military strikes against the (Assad) regime … One proposed way to get around the White House’s long-standing objection to striking the Assad regime without a U.N. Security Council resolution would be to carry out the strikes covertly and without public acknowledgment.” – Washington Post

Call it stealth warfare, call it poking the bear, call it whatever you’d like. The fact is, the Syrian war has entered a new and more dangerous phase increasing the chances of a catastrophic confrontation between the US and Russia.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Gold Bull Markets Have Corrections / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Human nature is nothing if not consistent. I’ve seen this dozens  of times. At every single intermediate cycle low traders begin to doubt. No matter how strong the bull signals are, when a correction occurs traders find, or make up reasons for why the bear market is still in force or a new bear market is starting.

Folks, bull markets have to have corrections. They don’t signal the end of the bull, they are just profit taking events when price gets stretched too far above the mean, or when sentiment becomes too bullish.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

I used to wonder how these massive World Wars happened.

World War I, for instance.  The “official” story for why it happened makes absolutely no sense.  The mainstream reason for the war was because some Archduke from Austria got killed.

Then, like some bizarre drunken bar fight, tens of millions of people from dozens of different countries all were wounded or injured in the ensuing four years.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Andy_Sutton

This will be a bit different of a piece because we are not reporting on something that has already happened; we’re dealing with something that is ongoing and developing. Graham will handle roughly the first half of the article, then Andy will handle the second. Please bear with us as we try to break this editorial into two distinct pieces. You’ll understand as you read it why we chose to handle this in such a fashion.

Since everything in the blogosphere goes by what is officially declared by who, so forth, and so on, ditto, ditto, etc, etc, we are officially declaring there is yet ANOTHER bubble – this one in housing. Again. Perhaps ‘still’ is the proper word rather than ‘again since the first one never really was totally washed out of the system. As an addendum to our very well-received ‘American Economics’ piece, we’ll add a corollary: binges are good, purges are not to be tolerated unless absolutely necessary. If a purge becomes necessary, it will be only enough to give the Proletariat the idea that the problem is actually gone. A purge will never last longer than is absolutely necessary since that might affect consumer spending and the consumetariat’s voracious appetite for debt and financial self-mutilation.

Sunday, October 09, 2016

World Gone Mad: Credit Bubble “Perpetual Preferred” / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Rubino

Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits.

In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.”