Saturday, October 12, 2019
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials / Politics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Social Security is a textbook illustration of how government programs go off the rails.It had a noble goal: to help elderly and disabled Americans, who can’t work, maintain a minimal, dignified living standard.
Back then, most people either died before reaching that point or didn’t live long after it. Social Security was never intended to do what we now expect, i.e., be the primary incom source for most Americans during a decade or more of retirement.
Life expectancy when Social Security began was around 56. The designers made 65 the full retirement age because it was well past normal life expectancy.
No one foresaw the various medical and technological advances that let more people reach that age and a great deal more, or the giant baby boom that would occur after World War II, or the sharp drop in birth rates in the 1960s, thanks to artificial birth control.
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Saturday, October 12, 2019
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Positive expectations related to the US/China trades negotiations on October 10th prompted a moderately strong upside move in the US major indexes and the stock market.
Additionally, the precious metals fell in correlation to the upside move in the US stock market and presented another opportunity for skilled technical traders to look for entries below $1500 in Gold and below $17.75 in Silver.
We can’t stress the importance of this critical $1500 price level in Gold as a key level for all traders to watch. It has continued to provide key support for Gold since the price rally that initiated in late April 2019. We believe this level will act as a relatively strong price “floor” going forward and any price activity below $1500 could represent a very opportunistic entry area for skilled traders.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good technical starting point would be a quick look at the prospects for the US Dollar.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In contrast to gloomy international projections, economic realities suggest that China’s Golden Week may have exceeded expectations.I spent China’s 70-year National Day festivities in Shanghai, China's global financial hub, and Guangzhou, the global trade hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In both, China’s massive transition toward consumption and innovation is now an increasing reality.
Due to US tariff wars, Chinese mass consumers – like their peers in the United States, Europe and Japan – are cost-conscious, increasingly discriminate and sophisticated in their spending. Indeed, sales of gold jewelry boomed during the holidays, fueled by gold prices, holiday festivities and the wedding season.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The on-again, off-again, on-again Trump trade war with China coupled with weakening signs of U.S. economic growth has placed the S&P 500 into another multi-month consolidation.
Stocks continue to gyrate from mid-year as news of a possible trade deal appears to solidify only to have a reverse decision suddenly develop.
This whip-sawing creates uncertainty among traders. As such, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average has remained in a 10% trading band over the last six months, whereas the Canadian TSX has been held in a tighter 6% trading range (Chart 1).
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Friday, October 11, 2019
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The entire precious metals sector rallied yesterday, but the upswing was particularly visible in case of silver and (especially) mining stocks. Both: silver, and miners moved to new October highs. Silver’s breakout was tiny, but miners rallied relatively significantly and that’s the part of the current long trade that’s particularly profitable. Of course, these profits are near to nothing compared to what’s likely ahead in case of the big short trade that we plan to profit on in the following months, but they add their part to the overall results. Please note that a small long position here also means staying temporarily out of the short position, which brings the likelihood of re-entering them at higher prices.
Let’s take a closer look at what happened.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.
The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks / Companies / Internet
By: Stephen_McBride
An unusual race recently took place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.Former NFL star Keyshawn Johnson lined up at the 40 yard line...
While an average guy named Ricky stood in the end zone.
Keyshawn’s challenge was to run 40 yards faster than Ricky could download an episode of HBO’s Hard Knocks to his smartphone.
Ricky won. He downloaded the hour-long show in 3.6 seconds.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money / Personal_Finance / Scams
By: Rodney_Johnson
I’m tired of the impeachment talk and it hasn’t really started yet. With the House working on impeachment inquiries in several committees, we’ll get a healthy dose of political doublespeak from everyone involved for at least the rest of this year. It’s already started to crowd other stories out of the news cycle. But we have to pay attention, because other things are happening that will directly affect us in the months and years to come.
We got a glimpse of our financial future at the end of last week when the first reports about Puerto Rico’s proposed financial settlement came to light. It’s not finished, but we know two things: The law will be ignored, and investors will get crushed.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Earlier this week I read a great article by Kuppy at Adventures In Capitalism. It brought back memories of the last condo and real estate bubble in Miami… I was there. I was moving to Tampa and sold before the crash that I was nearly alone in forecasting in late 2005 .Kuppy noted that prices had plateaued for a few years and had begun to drop 20% to 35% in South Beach – and worse in the downtown Brickell area. He talks to a friend who makes non-traditional loans against these condos, and he says “it’s about to blow… just give it six to nine months.”
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Friday, October 11, 2019
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits / Companies / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
Who’s Eyeing Up 2020? Warren or Sanford? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020
By: Rodney_Johnson
In a recent interview with MSNBC, Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) said that his House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence had no knowledge of the UkraineGate whistleblower claim before notification from the Inspector General.That statement was eventually proven false. As the first whistleblower approached staffers for Schiff’s committee before going to the IG. For the falsehood, the Washington Post awarded Schiff “four Pinocchios.”
Although, as my Millennial kids would tell me, if we’re counting falsehoods, the Washington Post would probably award Trump “all the Pinocchios.”
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
As the correction in gold stocks continues and as it’s likely to endure for the time being, we take a step back and share some tips for selecting individual junior gold companies.
The current correction may provide the last chance to buy before the bull market in Gold is confirmed and capital pours into the junior sector and pushes up prices.
Here are three of our best tips to help you spot the big winners before the crowd.
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
Consumers are always worrying about the rising cost of basic needs, products, and services. Whether we like it or not, the global economy affects all of us.
When we hear the word inflation, we often think about the increase in the prices of the things we buy. But how important is it to understand inflation and the factors that influence it?
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
Employment Data, Rate Cut Speculations and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
If you look at the manufacturing data only, the relative strength of the jobs figures surprised. Another positive development were the upward revisions for August and July. The unemployment rate again dropped, this time to 3.5 percent. What will that mean for the Fed and gold?
September Payrolls Slow Down, but Unemployment Rate Drops Anyway
The U.S. created only 136,000 jobs in September, following an increase of 168,000 in August (after an upward revision). The nonfarm payrolls were short of the analysts’ forecast of 150,000. The gains were widespread, spearheaded by education and health services (+40,000) and professional and business services (+34,000). Manufacturing, which is in recession, and retail trade, which faces overcapacity, cut jobs.
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Thursday, October 10, 2019
Monetary Madness Puts U.S. Dollars Holders in Jeopardy / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
We’re in uncharted territory. Never before have U.S. fiscal and monetary policy been leveraged so heavily to boost an economy that wasn’t even in recession.
Something will break – and it could be the value of U.S. currency. The Federal Reserve Note now faces devaluation pressures on multiple fronts.
With the federal government running a trillion-dollar budget deficit and an election year approaching, fiscal restraint is a dead letter in Washington, D.C. Politicians are fighting over who can promise to borrow and spend the most.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Robert_Ross
Have you checked the returns on your dividend-paying stocks lately?If so, you should like what you see.
See, most value stocks also pay dividends. And value stocks have been on an incredible run over the last month. They’ve outperformed growth stocks by 9%, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
This isn’t normal. Value stocks haven’t outpaced growth stocks by this wide of a margin since 2010. And this is probably just the start.
Once they break ahead like this, value stocks usually outperform growth stocks for another nine months. This pattern has held up around 75% of the time since 1986.
Those are pretty good odds, making now the perfect time to load up on value stocks. Three in particular…
Thursday, October 10, 2019
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
1. It is led by institutions and funds, not private investors. Global quantitative easing created a huge and mobile pool of capital in constant need of a place to call home. As the need for a safe haven became apparent among the stewards of that capital, the demand for gold flourished. The consistent presence of funds and institutions as buyers in this rally, as represented by the growth in ETF stockpiles, is one of its hallmarks and represents one of the major differences between this gold rally and rallies of the past. Though private investors have been late to the game, the rapid development of the physical market for gold coins and bullion in the United Kingdom is testament to the fact that sentiment can change quickly.
Wednesday, October 09, 2019
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has continued to prove REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as the charts over the past 15 months illustrate, where the basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
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