Tuesday, October 22, 2019
U-Turn or Perfect Storm? Globalization at Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Only 12 years ago, globalization peaked. Today, it is in the doldrums and the Trump trade wars have nullified the recovery. We are at a crossroads, where globalization may further stagnate or fall apart.According to the new IMF outlook, global growth is forecast at 3.0% for 2019. That’s the lowest since the global crisis of 2008-9. It is largely due to the US tariff wars, which have contributed to the projected slowdown in the US and China.
The IMF projects growth to pick up to 3.4% in 2020. That, however, is predicated on improvements in a number of emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East and developing Europe, which, in turn, would require a trade recovery. Thanks to the global slowdown, world growth prospects now hover at levels where they were last in the darkest moments of 2008/9.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Stock Market Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year. History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises. It appears in 2019 is no different. Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.
We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don’t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials. In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM – a rotational range of about 11% in total size. Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM – nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Fake Numbers Fueling the Wage War on Wealth / Politics / Economic Statistics
By: Rodney_Johnson
I’m stupid about the cost of a lot of things. I don’t mean uneducated, or lacking knowledge. I’m talking about downright dumb as a stump. Thank goodness the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is around to set me straight.Take my television, for instance.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
A Look at Peak Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Harry_Dent
David Stockman, Dr. Lacy Hunt and I agreed on a lot of things last week at the seventh annual Irrational Economic Summit in D.C. In the September issue of Boom & Bust, I talked about corporate debt being the greatest threat globally this time around. The worst is in the emerging world that used cheap printed dollars from the developed countries, primarily the U.S., to fund a debt binge concentrated in the corporate sectors. But our corporate sector also added a lot to their debt and only 39% of their bonds are investment grade, with 39% BBB and 22% junk.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
How High Debt Affects Bond Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Harry_Dent
The only Phd economist I allow to speak each year at the Irrational Economic Summit is Dr. Lacy Hunt. (You can watch his presentation from this year’s conference here.) Lacy can take that complex science and still see the forest for the trees. He can still find reality from all of that great theory to real-life outcomes.It also helps that he advises a $4 billion bond fund at Housington Management and has to get the reality of bond interest rates right or face the consequences – which he has for this entire boom!
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
The Coming Great Global Debt Reset / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Richard_Mills
In the first quarter of 2019, global debt hit $246.5 trillion.
Encouraged by lower interest rates, governments went on a borrowing binge as they ramped up spending, adding $3 trillion to world debt in Q1 alone. It reverses a trend that started in the beginning of 2018, of reducing debt burdens, when global debt reached its highest on record, $248 trillion.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2019
GamStop Became Mandatory / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
The online gambling industry is one of the successful business ventures in the United Kingdom. All forms of gambling and betting in the region are regulated by the UK Gambling Commission. Although the industry has achieved a lot since it was established back in 2005, it is forced to find solutions to emerging problems. The most recent changes expected in the UK gambling market are aimed at tackling the problem gamblers.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Learn to Spot Reliable Trading Setups: ANY Market, Any Market Time Frame / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
On October 23, you are invited for a rare, free opportunity to see for yourself how to use simple, everyday price charts to find reliable trade setups -- in any market and any time frame.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
How To Secure A Debt Consolidation Loan Even If You Have A Bad Credit Rating / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Submissions
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Kids Teepee Tent Fun from Amazon by Lavievert Review - 15% Discount! / Personal_Finance / Money Saving
By: Anika_Walayat
The kids wanted a play tent, so after much searching of Amazon, decided to go with the Lavievert Teepee Childrens Indian Playhouse Cotton Canvas Tent (https://amzn.to/31rGpMY), given it's size should be ample to take several kids, and that it's canvas instead of plastic which many of these tents tend to be. Also like the fact came with wooden poles which are more realitic of a tepeee that the usual plastic or metal poles.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
Equity markets have once again moved to all time highs esp in the US but action at the top is dicey and looks suspicious.
Key stocks are analysed below and we can see the stall in momentum which is often a harbinger of things to come.
AMZN- Stalling under the 50-day moving average after back testing the up trend line. AAPL - Stalled out all week, flat to Friday's close. FB - Stalling at last months high, trying to bounce off the 50-day moving average but below the trend line. GOOGL - Stalling at resistance NFLX - Stalled and reversed at the channel line. Falling below the 50-day moving average. MSFT - Stalling at resistance, falling below the 50-day moving average today. ADBE - Stalled at the 50-day moving average, falling below the topping pattern neck line.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Stock Market Crash Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been attempting to answer the question that seems to be on everyone’s minds right now – are we setting up another Black Monday type of event in the global markets and what should traders/investors know before the event potentially takes place. Our research team has spent the past few weeks trying to better understand the global economic events that took place 8 to 20+ years before the Black Monday event happened and have been particularly interested in the 10+ years just before the Black Monday event. Additionally, we’ll focus on the recovery event that took place after the Black Monday collapse completed.
In Part I of this article, we attempted to highlight some of the similarities of today’s global economic world to the scenario in the early 1980s. Many of you may not be old enough to remember the 1960s or 1970s, but at least one individual on our research team is old enough and was actively trading in 1985. His interpretation of the economic events prior to the 1987 Black Monday collapse and how they may be similar to today highlight some very interesting facets for our readers.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Most likely building intermediate top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, October 21, 2019
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Back in the day, for those of you that are old enough to remember and have experienced one of the most incredible trader psychology driven stock market decline in recent history.
The difference between “Black Monday” and most of the other recent stock market declines is that October 19, 1987, was driven by a true psychological panic, what we consider true price exploration, after an incredible price rally.
It is different than the DOT COM (2001) decline and vastly different than the Credit Market Crisis (2008-09) because both of those events were related to true fundamental and technical evaluations. In both of those instances, prices have been rising for quite some time, but the underlying fundamentals of the economics of the markets collapsed and the markets collapsed with future expectations. Before we get too deep, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
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Monday, October 21, 2019
Land Rover Discovery Sports Out of Warranty Top Money Saving Tips / ConsumerWatch / Land Rover
By: HGR
As soon as my Discovery Sports 3 year manufacturer warranty is up, up popped the dreaded yellow engine management warning light prompting a visit to the local land rover dealer for a diagnosis. Apparently the EGR Valve is failing that typically are supposed to last 10 years or 100,000 miles and the job to replace the gasket is billed at £1000!
So here are my top money saving tips for when your Land Rover Discovery Sport goes out of Warranty.
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Sunday, October 20, 2019
Investing lessons from the 1987 Stock Market Crash From Who Beat it / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest day of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October 19th, the 32nd anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday that saw the stock market crash by an unprecedented 22% in one day that few saw coming but ever since many prophesies the repeat of each October, regardless of what the stock market has actually done thus far each year as the perma bear crowd can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent, pointing to a myriad of harbingers of the imminent stock market apocalypse. Against which the historic record paints a picture of a coin toss having proved infinitely more accurate than the perma crash is coming calls awaiting their broken clock moment to proclaim their success.....
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Sunday, October 20, 2019
Trade Wars: Facts And Fallacies / Economics / Protectionism
By: Steve_H_Hanke
U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside many others, has a straightforward view on international trade, particularly the U.S. external balance. They believe an external deficit is a malady caused by foreigners who manipulate exchange rates, impose tariff and non-tariff barriers, steal intellectual property, and engage in unfair trade practices. The president and his followers feel the U.S. is victimized by foreigners, as reflected in the country’s negative external balance.
This mercantilist view of international trade and external accounts is wrongheaded. The negative external balance in the U.S. is not a “problem,” nor is it caused by foreigners engaging in nefarious activities. The U.S.’s negative external balance, which the country has registered every year since 1975, is “made in the USA”—a result of its savings deficiency.
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Saturday, October 19, 2019
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
What’s In Play Now
It has been about 2 months since the gold stock sector, as represented by the HUI index, topped out. The ensuing correction has been a whipsaw affair of ups and downs, but smoothing that volatility out we find an ongoing correction in time and price that has not been too difficult to manage.
The pattern that some would call a “complex H&S” (TA-speak for a freakish pattern with too many shoulders) held a key lower high on the recent bounce to the daily chart’s SMA 50 (blue line). The neckline has been tested (and held) twice since it was created in September and the negative RSI divergence that began last summer has been guiding Huey downward.
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Saturday, October 19, 2019
Gold during Global Monetary Ease / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Another round of global monetary easing has just begun! More than 30 central banks around the world have cut interest rates this year so far. The Fed and the ECB are certainly among them. Should gold investors look forward to these policies playing out? Let’s find out how gold tends to behave during such an extraordinary period!
Ladies and Gentlemen! Another round of global monetary easing has just begun! More than 30 central banks around the world have cut interest rates this year amid trade wars and slowing economic growth and subdued inflation. The Fed cut the federal funds rate twice this year, each time by 25 basis point. In September, the ECB cut its deposit rate from minus 0.4 percent to minus 0.5 percent and reintroduced its quantitative easing, while the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve ratio by 50 basis point to 13 percent for large banks, the third time this year, releasing about $126 billion in liquidity to support the slowing economy. In August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised investors with 50-basis point interest rate cut. The central banks of Hong Kong, Thailand, Mexico, Turkey and Russia also have cut rates recently, while the Bank of Japan may join the club soon.
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Friday, October 18, 2019
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater. Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.
We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart.
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