Saturday, May 18, 2019
What Does the New Fed’s Regime Imply for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed promised that the quantitative easing would be only temporary and that it would reduce its ballooned balance sheet to the pre-crisis level. Now, as the Fed adopted an interest targeting with ample-reserves, we know that this is not going to happen. We invite you to read our today’s article about the new Fed’s regime and find out how it works and what it implies for the US monetary policy and the precious metals.
The discussion about the US monetary policy concentrates on the changes in the interest rates and Fed’s balance sheet. But what is also very important is how the US central bank implements its monetary policy, especially that in recent years the Fed has started operating in a new monetary policy implementation regime. Let’s analyze that change and its implications for the economy and the gold market.
Before the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers, life was simple. And the economic textbooks adequately described how the US central bank conducted the monetary policy. In short, the FOMC set a target for the federal funds rate and reached that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. The commercial banks had to hold some reserve balances to meet the reserve requirements. Banks who lacked these reserves, borrowed them in the federal funds market from banks who had excess liquidity. As the reserves were scarce, the Fed could affect the level of the federal funds rate and move it to the target level through changes in the supply of reserves, known as open market operations. For example, when the Fed observed that the market rate is above the target, it purchased the government bonds adding reserve balances to the banking system and creating downward pressure on the market rate.
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Saturday, May 18, 2019
If You and Your Spouse Argue About Money, You Have to Read This / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: Jared_Dillian
People fight about money all the time. It has been quantified. A third or more of all arguments in marriages are about money.Usually this falls into one of two categories:
- Spouse A thinks that Spouse B spends too much money.
- Spouse A thinks that Spouse B doesn’t spend enough money (i.e., is a CF).
I advocate for married couples to keep their money separate. My wife and I have always kept our money separate—for 21+ years. And it works great for us.
Friday, May 17, 2019
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks are drifting sideways with gold, their early-year momentum sapped by the recent stock-market euphoria. But they are more important than ever for prudently diversifying portfolios, a rare sector that surges when stock markets weaken. Their just-reported Q1’19 results reveal how gold miners are faring as a sector, and their current fundamentals are way better than bearish psychology implies.
The wild market action in Q4’18 again emphasized why investors shouldn’t overlook gold stocks. Every portfolio needs a 10% allocation in gold and its miners’ stocks. As the flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index plunged 19.8% largely in that quarter to nearly enter a bear market, the leading gold-stock ETF rallied 11.4% higher in that span. That was a warning shot across the bow that these markets are changing.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Deflationary Assets Surge in Performance Over Inflationary Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
Deflationary assets (financials, technology, industrials, healthcare and consumer products) are outperforming inflationary assets (commodities), once again.
Deflationary sectors have been dominant over inflationary assets for most of the last seven years. Outside of the short-term surge in performance from commodities in 2016, deflationary assets have held the top performance spot for most of the period from 2012 to 2019.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout. We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part. It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes. Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.
The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility. That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain. After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Nasdaq De-FAANGed? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Submissions
By Zac Mannes : We generally chart the regular NASDAQ -- the NDX, QQQ, and the futures -- but when you consider that a mere five momentum names, affectionately given the acronym "FAANG," comprise nearly 40% of the weighting of the entire index, a glance at the Equal Weight version is not a bad idea. I prefer the First Trust (QQEW) to the Direxion (QQQE) as it seems to chart slightly cleaner and the "EW" is easier to remember.
Watching for nuanced differentiation in the patterns between the QQEW and NDX, it is possible to see the potential for the former to lead a bit. For example, back in August/September of 2018, QQEW marked a divergent high. More recently, the QQEW began to count more like the blue 5th wave extension of (5) of Primary Wave 3 before the NDX shifted from it's "(B)" wave.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Where Next For Gold After Touching the $1,300 Mark? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Monday, the price of gold has briefly jumped above $1,300. For the next two days, the yellow metal has been holding near that important psychological level, although it failed to rally subsequently. Let’s take a look at the trigger(s) of the upward move. The reaction of the gold market over the following days is pretty telling...
China Strikes Back
It has been a hot week! Indeed, just look at the chart below. As you can see, the price of the yellow metal leaped to $1,300 on Monday, even surpassing briefly that key level. What happened exactly?
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Friday, May 17, 2019
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast / ElectionOracle / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's walking dead Labour and Conservative zombie political parties are about to reap the whirlwind for not just failing to deliver on the 2016 EU referendum result of LEAVING the EU on the 29th of March 2019. But having effectively ignored near half the electorate for the past 2 decades, who have increasingly became disengaged from the 2 parties, who in reality have become largely the SAME party!
The first shock to the system was the UKIP victory in the 2014 European Elections by winning 24 seats, and then came LEAVE winning the 2016 EU Referendum. And so voters on the 23rd of May look set to deliver the next BREXIT SHOCK to the political establishment, where most MP's have long since sold out the British people to the bankers and billionaires who effectively run the show the most notable consequence of which was ConLab BAILING OUT the BANKING CRIME SYNDICATE in 2008-2019, the price for which has been borne by ordinary British people resulting in a decade of stagnating earnings for most workers.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Although most of the precious metals sector has trended lower in recent months, Gold has held up well. It and the other, weaker components of precious metals got a boost on Monday when China retaliated with tariffs of its own.
There has been little follow through since.
This begs the question, will a trade war lead to a new bull market in precious metals?
The short answer is yes if it leads to a downturn and Fed rate cuts.
Rate cuts coupled with higher inflation due to the tariffs is a very bullish combination for precious metals.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
The yield curve isn’t the only sign recession is coming. Rising corporate misconduct says the same.
Business scandals seem to peak at the end of every growth cycle. I think that’s because CEOs are human, and humans get overconfident when everything is going well.
- In the late 1980s, we had the savings & loan crisis, followed by recession in 1990–91.
- The early 2000s brought both a deep recession and scandals at Enron, Tyco, WorldCom, and others.
- The Great Recession exposed Bernie Madoff’s fraud scheme. A couple of years earlier, commodity broker Refco went bankrupt after its CEO had concealed millions in bad debts.
Allegations of negligence and/or misconduct at public companies now seem to be growing again…
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Friday, May 17, 2019
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: EWI
Take a look at stock market behavior in times of war... and peace
By Bob Stokes
After the U.S. recently announced new sanctions against Iran, tensions have escalated between the two countries.
USA Today reported (May 7):
The Pentagon is rushing additional military muscle, including B-52 bombers, to the Middle East to counter Iranian threats to U.S. troops on the ground and at sea.
Of course, it's always best when military conflict can be avoided because as U.S. President Abraham Lincoln said in an 1864 speech:
War at the best, is terrible ...
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's walking dead Labour and Conservative zombie political parties are about to reap the whirlwind for not just failing to deliver on the 2016 EU referendum result of LEAVING the EU on the 29th of March 2019. But having effectively ignored near half the electorate for the past 2 decades, who have increasingly became disengaged from the 2 parties, who in reality have become largely the SAME party!
The first shock to the system was the UKIP victory in the 2014 European Elections by winning 24 seats, and then came LEAVE winning the 2016 EU Referendum. And so voters on the 23rd of May look set to deliver the next BREXIT SHOCK to the political establishment, where most MP's have long since sold out the British people to the bankers and billionaires who effectively run the show the most notable consequence of which was ConLab BAILING OUT the BANKING CRIME SYNDICATE in 2008-2019, the price for which has been borne by ordinary British people resulting in a decade of stagnating earnings for most workers.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
You’ve likely heard of the term “income inequality.” It means wealthy people are making a larger share of our collective income.
In one sense, it’s nothing new. The people with the highest incomes have more of the total. Math guarantees it.
But the top’s share has largely grown in recent decades, as has the share of assets owned by the wealthiest.
In fact, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates says that income inequality is now at the same level it was in the Great Depression.
Let’s review some charts from my friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest fascinating slide deck. It does a good job of explaining the drivers of this trend and its striking scale.
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of the Nifty 50 Indian Stocks Index / Stock-Markets / India
By: WavePatternTraders
We are currently tracking a possible impulse wave from the all-time high at 11855, a new low is still needed to end a 5th wave of a suspected impulse wave as shown. Whilst the Banknifty has moved to a new low, we want to see the Nifty confirm that new low on the Banknifty, that would offer a bearish reversal clue.
If we do see a 5th wave to end the current impulse wave idea from the April 2018 high, then a bounce thereafter in 3 waves can be sold against 11855 stops. Based on the wave pattern from the lows made in 2016, the decline from 11855 could be a very important reversal signal, although we are taking it one step at a time.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of the FTSE futures / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: WavePatternTraders
The strong reversal from the April 2018 high appears impulse looking on a few world stock markets, particularly the FTSE and NIK-225. So we are focussed on the cleaner patterns from the April high. Having put in a 5th wave to end an impulse wave from the April 2018 high a few days back, the subsequent bounce we have seen over the last few days is of no surprise to us, its actually what we want to see, as we are looking for a partial retracement in 3 or 7 waves to offer a bearish setup for a move lower.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
...
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to update some ratio combo charts which may give us a sense of the bigger picture. Its like putting the pieces of a puzzle together where the small pieces don’t look like much by themselves but when they’re all added together it paints a clear picture. These ratio combo charts are just a piece of the puzzle that may add some clarity to some of the individual sectors.
Lets start with the TIP:TLT ratio chart in black with the TLT in red, which I use for the inflation/deflation debate. Most investors have their own individual stocks they like to look at in trying to answer the age old question, are we in an inflationary or deflationary cycle? When the ratio in black is rising it shows signs of inflation and when it’s falling deflation becomes possible.
On the left hand side of the chart you can see how the ratio in black topped out while the TLT was bottoming in 2011. Also at the bottom of the chart I have added the GDX and the CRB index with the 30 week ema which also topped out in 2011. Since the 2011 high the main trend has been down for the ratio chart in black which shows deflation. In July of 2016 both the ratio and the TLT topped out beginning a consolidation phase that would last for about 2 1/2 years with each forming a triangle consolidation pattern. In November of 2018 both broke out of their respective triangles signaling that we may see some deflation in our future. Again, at the bottom of the chart you can see the CRB index along with the GDX are currently trading below their 30 week ema which is not the end of the world but short term negative. The bottom line is that as long as the ratio in black keeps falling the odds favor a possible deflationary event maybe in the cards in the future.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been rallying throughout the day and selling off at night throughout the recent stock market decline. Is this the sign of something more sinister that’s going on in the stock market. Meanwhile, interest rates are falling.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Investing in Uber Is the Worst Thing You Can Do with Your Money in 2019 / Companies / IPOs
By: Stephen_McBride
Uber’s IPO is the biggest IPO since Facebook (FB) went public in 2012.
It marks the first time individual investors can buy this beloved company.
IPOs carry a special allure. Investors dream of “getting in on the ground floor” and riding the stock to 20X–30X profits.
But collecting profits of 20X or better is possible if you identify disruptive stocks early on.
Uber is certainly disruptive. But as I’ll show you, it’s a horrible investment.