Thursday, November 01, 2018

The U.S. Stock Market is Very Volatile Right Now. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has been very volatile recently, swinging up and down more than 1% each day.

Thursday, November 01, 2018

Trump Is America’s National Piñata / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s been quite a while since I first wrote that I resented the MSM (New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC etc etc) for effectively monopolizing the entire discussion about Donald Trump. Don’t remember exactly when I wrote that, do remember Jim Kunstler sent a mail and thanked me for saying it. Because he felt- and feels- the same way.

The 24/7 daily Trump bashing machine that was unleashed in late 2015/early 2016 meant that people like us had a choice of criticizing Trump where he needed to be criticized, but that would put us in the MSM camp, where we don’t want to be. And we don’t want to not criticize him either, because there’s so much that needs scrutiny.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

R.I.P. Fed-Fueled Stocks Bull Market (2009-2018)? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The Nasdaq composite enters this week’s trading down over 10% in the month of October. For what it’s worth, market technicians consider a 10% pullback an official “correction.”

So far it’s just that – a correction. It may therefore be a bit premature to carve the stock market’s tombstone.

But investors should be prepared for further downside in share prices… and a possible longer-term (and long overdue) bear market after several years of relentless Fed-fueled price appreciation.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

US Elections May Trigger Major Stock Market Bottom – PART II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The clock is ticking on our expected bottom formation and now is the time for skilled traders to begin to position their trades for the remainder of 2018 and early 2019.  We detailed why we believe the US equities markets have already, or are currently, hammering out a price bottom after the last few weeks downside price activity.  In part one of this article, we illustrated how the US elections cycles are really more of a global geopolitical event and often drive price rotation in the months prior to these elections.  Please take a minute to read Part 1 of this two-part research post if you have not already done so.

In this second part of our US election research post, we are going to continue to review topics that were previously discussed as well as highlight how certain market segments appear to be setting up for a massive price reversal.  So, let’s get started.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Why the Stock Market Crash is Just Beginning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street’s playbook stipulates that every down tick in the market is just another buying opportunity. While that is most often true, peak margins, a slowing global economy and the bond bubble collapse makes this time more like 2008 than just a routine selloff. 

In the vanguard of this coming market crash is China, whose make-pretend growthrate slid to 6.5% in the third quarter. This is the slowest pace of growth thatthe communist government has been willing to own up tosince the last global financial crisis.Leaving one to conclude that the reality in China is farworse.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

How Government Causes Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

We know that inflation is the debasement of money by government. The effects of inflation show up in the form of rising prices over time. The rising prices are a reflection of the loss of purchasing power of the currency involved. For our purposes, that means the U.S. dollar.

The chart below depicts increases in the Consumer Price Index, year-to-year, dating back to 1914…

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

US 2018 Midterm Elections / Politics / US Congressional Elections

By: BATR

Conventional political wisdom would have the public believe that the electorate is poised for the Democrats to take a majority in the House of Representatives while the Republicans hold the edge in the Senate. Seldom is the question raised just what empirical evidence, where and how is it arrived at for such a conclusion to become valid. The polls in 2016 were entirely bogus and undoubtedly meant to defeat Donald Trump. Nothing has changed in the 2018 midterms. The establishment is committed to defeat GOP candidates and ensure that the Deep State regains their former power and influence. The distortion of reality is their major tactic to confuse, discourage and suppress Trump supporters from casting their ballots.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

US Elections May Trigger Major Stock Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Almost like clockwork, our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., predicted on September 17) the US stock market would turn lower and attempt a 5~8% downside move on or after September 21 headed into the US mid-term elections.  Our analysis of the potential downside move was related to our price modeling systems expectations that a common predicted downside target existed between -5% and -8%.  Our researchers did not believe the markets would fall much below -10% before hammering out a price bottom and finding support.

Monday, October 29, 2018

5 Strategies for Improving Your Financial Well-Being / Personal_Finance / Investing 2018

By: Submissions

Nobody likes being stressed about their finances. Sometimes it can seem like your money situation is out of control, but there are lots of ways you can get it figured out. Here are five strategies you can consider when trying to improve your financial well-being. You can use some or all of them to get results and reduce stress.

Monday, October 29, 2018

The Great Interest Rate Caper / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Andy_Sutton

It began as any other bull market. An early burst followed by climbing a wall of worry, then bursting out (or down in this case) beyond the wall of worry, its trajectory headed for the great ethereal unknown. And just like every similar time in history, market analysts, policy makers, and the general public assumed it would go on like this forever. And it did. Until it didn’t. By the title you might have already guessed the topic of this essay but think for a minute about this first paragraph and what we’re discussing in generic terms. Of course! We’re talking about the traits of a financial bubble.

By way of introduction, this essay will not contain any images. We have found that many times graphs and charts confuse the issues rather than helping to elucidate them.

Monday, October 29, 2018

Stock Market Approaching Intermediate Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bear market

Intermediatetrend– Approaching initial low (1585-1600).

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, October 29, 2018

What to Look for in a Virtual Data Room / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

There are several different ways of becoming an entrepreneur. You can start your business from scratch all the way up or buy an existing business. Other possible options include acquisitions, takeovers and mergers.

In the case of a merger or an acquisition, you'll need to be specific about what you need. Virtual data rooms are the best technology that most people use to facilitate the acquisition process.

Monday, October 29, 2018

How to Simplify Contract Management Lifestyle / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Negotiating contracts effectively is essential for business success. The details in the contract you negotiate will specify the details for all the transactions you make. Making a single misstep can have huge financial implications for your business.

Historically, the management of contracts was an ad-hoc process. Since the details were recorded on paper, various clauses in the document were often overlooked. That's not the case anymore!

Sunday, October 28, 2018

The Stock Market’s Volatility is Very High. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

What a week for the U.S. stock market. Conventional technical analysis would have you believe that “the world is ending” because trendline support has been broken.

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Gold Stocks Will Benefit From Cyclical Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we have noted over the many years of the gold sector’s bear market, the gold miners will not rally for real until the real sector and macro fundamentals come into place. Those fundamentals do not include commonly promoted inflation, China/India “love” trades, a US dollar collapse or especially, war, pestilence or any other human misery than economic. The more astute gold bugs do not fall for that.

The gold miners are counter-cyclical as they leverage gold’s performance (whether positive or negative) relative to cyclical assets and markets. Hence the handy picture showing the key fundamental items with the 4 largest planets orbiting the golden sun being the most important.

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Kitchin Cycle Warned of Stok Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: readtheticker

Here are some names of cycle masters: Kondratieff, Dewey, Kitchin, to name just a few. Cycles are in all matters of life, including the SP500.

From Wiki

.."Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British businessman and statistician. Analyzing American and English interest rates and other data, Kitchin found evidence for a short business cycle of about 40 months.[1] His publications led to other business cycle theories by later economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter"..

Sunday, October 28, 2018

7 Insurance Policies That You Never Knew Existed / Personal_Finance / Insurance

By: Dylan_Moran

Every good financial management strategy wouldn’t be complete without insurance. Life is full of uncertainties, after all, and good insurance plans can give you a sense of security and protection from unplanned situations that could easily put a dent to your finances.

You probably have a few insurance plans under your name to secure your biggest assets: your house, car and health. But did you know that there are other insurance policies that you probably don’t know about but might come handy in the future?

Saturday, October 27, 2018

In Search of a Bearish Bitcoin Trigger / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

A large asset manager has decided to offer Bitcoin trading to its institutional investors. Bitcoin shot up around the announcement but reversed course and erased most of the move up. The currency has stayed subdued since. This could mean that the market is getting boring. It could also mean that investors and traders are taking a breather before a more decisive move.

Traditional asset managers are not necessarily averse to Bitcoin. It turns out that Fidelity Investments, one of the largest asset managers in the world, is interested in providing hedge funds with access to the Bitcoin market. In an article on the Wall Street Journal website, we read:

Fidelity Investments said it will store and trade bitcoin for hedge funds and other professional investors, becoming one of the first Wall Street giants to step into this volatile corner of the financial world.

(…)

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Gold Upleg Fuel Abounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold and its miners’ stocks have proven rare bastions of strength during recent weeks’ market carnage.  They are powering considerably higher while nearly everything else burns.  The markets’ major sentiment shift is accelerating a young gold upleg, which ought to grow much larger as speculators and investors continue returning.  Their collective gold positioning remains very low, making for abundant gold upleg fuel.

October’s outperformance by gold and gold stocks has been impressive.  As of Wednesday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index had plunged 8.8% month-to-date.  That heavy selling was led by the market-darling mega tech stocks, pummeling the NASDAQ down 11.7% MTD!  Stock investors are starting to pay the piper for getting far too complacent in bubble-valued markets, the reckoning is underway.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Stock Investor Batten Down The Hatches, Mates! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Get ready for some crazy price trends in the US markets as investors react to earnings, housing data and overall re-evaluations of future objectives.  As we warned on September 17 with this post and on October 1 with this post, we believed the future Q3 earnings weeks and the 2~4 weeks leading into the US Mid-term elections could be very volatile.  We even suggested a 5~8% price correction was expected to start after September 21~24.

What we did not expect is the Federal Reserve to raise rates, again, on September 26 – just days before the Q3 Earnings season actually started.  Our price models for the Fed Funds Rates have suggested that any move above 2% FFR would put pricing pressures on homes and other assets.  This research we completed was first published in 2015 here.  This was the first time we illustrated our Fed Funds Rate Adaptive Learning modeling systems results.  The chart within this article that shows that our model expected the US Fed to begin increasing interest rates in 2014~2015 to levels near 0.75~1.25.  From that point, a gradual increase towards 2.0 was expected prior to 2018~19.  Our price modeling system then expected a decrease in the FFR from 2.0% to between 1.5~1.75%.