Wednesday, August 15, 2018
A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: F_F_Wiley
It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.
In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.
But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Saudi Arabia And Iran Reignite The Oil Price War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is becoming increasingly evident in the oil pricing policies of the two large Middle Eastern producers. The two countries are currently reigniting the market share and pricing war ahead of the returning U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, has been boosting oil production to offset supply disruptions elsewhere, including the anticipated loss of Iranian oil supply after U.S. sanctions on Tehran return in early November. The Saudis are also cutting their prices to the prized Asian market to lure more customers as they increase supply.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
Jim Rogers, legendary investor and “Adventure Capitalist” speaks with Mark O’Byrne, GoldCore’s Director of Research, in the Goldnomics Podcast (Episode 7).
Are the actions of the US administration making China great again? What currency is going to challenge the US dollar as the global reserve? What can we do to protect ourselves against the next financial crash?
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
A Depressed Economy And A Silver Boom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Hubert_Moolman
Let’s take a look at silver priced in oil (WTI Crude), the Dow and US dollars:
Above, is silver priced in oil from 1983 to now. Price has moved in a large channel before it broke out at the end of 2014. This is really significant given the length of time involved.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis
By: EWI
This simple moving average "works equally well in commodities, currencies, and stocksquot;
The "moving average" is a technical indicator of market strength which has stood the test of time.
Over 30 years ago, Robert Prechter described this indicator in his essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:
...a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.
So, what is a moving average?
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Anatomy of Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Two drones filled with explosives were recently deployed in a failed assassination attempt to take out Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Chaos filled the streets as the military ran for their lives. But this sort of pandemonium is commonplace in Venezuela today: Where citizens have run out of basic necessities such as toilet paper and have begun eating their pets in order to stay alive. The mainstream Keynesian-brainwashed media doesn’t talk much about Venezuela or hyperinflation; perhaps because they are viscerally aware that the seeds of intractable inflation on a worldwide basis have already been sown by the global elites--and they don’t want to frighten you.
Venezuela is currently in the throes of hyperinflation on a massive scale. The communist-led government has mismanaged its economy into a fiscal catastrophe. Among other things, skilled farmers were thrown off their land and replaced by government apparatchiks that are untrained and incapable of producing enough food to feed the people. Oil production also waned due to mismanagement and corruption. To smooth over the government’s mounting debt it printed massive amounts of money in response to rising budget deficits. The currency plummeted, and foreign denominated debts were defaulted on.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey / Economics / Turkey
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since President Tayyip Erdogan has been at the helm, the Turkish lira has tumbled. Today, it collapsed. At one point, it was down as much as 18.5% against the U.S. dollar. The chart below traces the ugly course the lira has taken against the greenback under Erdogan’s tutelage.
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
The Federal Reserve: Secretly Sticking It to Americans for Over 100 Years / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
In the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the private Federal Reserve bank cartel was front and center as a target for public outrage.
Former U.S. Congressman Ron Paul’s "End the Fed" message suddenly resonated. Americans hated Fed officials bailing out the banksters – richly rewarding them for crooked and irresponsible behavior which helped create the crisis.
But years have passed. Americans have been enjoying the expansion stage of the next great bubble. The central planners at the Fed and their colleagues at the nation’s largest banks have been busy stimulating the real estate, equity, and bond markets.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: Gold is likely to plunge below $1,000 this year and we’ve been writing about it for months. This article provides a list of critical long-term factors that one should be aware of if they want to invest in or trade gold, silver, and/or mining stocks. We include links to our previous premium analyses and we just made these analyses available to everyone.
But first, a quick short-term update.
There were a few important technical details that took place on Friday that confirmed what we had written previously. The USD Index broke above the rising wedge pattern and the medium-term reverse head-and-shoulders pattern, while silver closed (the daily and weekly close) below its July 2017 lows.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 7th and final part of my stock market in-depth analysis that will conclude in a detailed trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018.
The whole of this analysis and concluding trend forecast was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and future trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were declining on Friday, as investors reacted to the Turkey financial crisis, among other factors. The market reversed lower following global stock markets' rout. Will uptrend reverse or is this just a downward correction before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.7-0.8% on Friday, retracing some of their early August advance, as investors reacted to global stock markets' rout. The S&P 500 index broke below its relatively narrow three-day-long trading range following bouncing off the resistance level of around 2,860-2,865. It currently trades 1.4% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7% on Friday.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
72% of the Base Interest Rate Rise Already Factored into Mortgage Fixed Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that two-year fixed rates were already on the rise before the Bank of England’s announcement earlier this month, with the average two-year fixed rate having risen by 0.18% since January 2018.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is right under all-time highs. An upside breakout in the next few weeks/months is very likely.
Based on where the Medium-Long Term Model is right now and the rate at which data is progressing, this bull market probably has 1 year left. Over the past week we have seen a few more signs that the stock market will probably make an important top somewhere in mid-2019.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
New Stock Market Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – A new correction has started. More time is needed to determine its extent.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, August 13, 2018
Turkey Is Simply Noise As The U.S. Market Pulls Back Before Rallying To New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every week the market provides us another example of the intellectual dishonesty in believing the substance of any news event was the “cause” of a market move. And, if you cannot yet see that on your own, I will explain it a bit further below.
While everyone has been so concerned about the evil trade wars that were supposedly going to topple the US markets, we have been rallying in the face of this latest evil. In doing so, the market provided us with yet another reason it was supposed to have tanked, but, instead, continued to rally. We can add this to Brexit, Grexit, terrorist attacks, rising interest rates, North Korea, Trump, cessation of quantitative easing, and the myriad of other reasons the market was supposed to crash and burn over the last 3 years as we have rallied strongly.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Gold Ready to Shine, Stocks Should Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
In my opinion, GDX and the precious metals look ready to rally nicely in the coming 7-8 weeks. I have been negative on the PM’s and miners for quite some time now. Keep in mind that I believe that the coming rally will be counter trend, but substantial enough to make money. I personally like the 3X ETF NUGT, which I believe could move up over 90% in the coming weeks. My current target for GDX is around 27.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 13, 2018
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis / Economics / Turkey
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Prime Minister of Turkey in 2003. His AKP party had won a major election victory in 2002, but Erdogan was banned from political office until his predecessor Gül annulled the ban. Which he had gotten in 1997 for reciting an old poem to which he had added the lines “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers….”
The Turkish courts of the time saw this as “an incitement to violence and religious or racial hatred..” and sentenced him to ten months in prison (of which he served four in 1999). The courts saw Erdogan as a threat to the secular Turkish state as defined by Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey in the 1920’s. Erdogan is trying to both turn the nation towards Islam and at the same time not appearing to insult Ataturk.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Oil And Energies On The Move Lower / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you have been following our analysis and research of the Crude Oil trend and the energy sector, you know we’ve been suggesting Crude would attempt a move lower and attempt to retest the $58~63 level. It appears the breakdown in prices has begun.
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, uses an array of proprietary technology, price modeling tools and price cycle modeling tools to attempt to keep our followers up to date with trend reversals, trend expansions and more. This recent downside price move is something we have been expecting for the last 20+ days. The breakdown of support in the Crude oil market, as well as the oversupply of oil on the planet, is setting up for a downside move that could be extraordinary.
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Stock Market Dow Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – 25313
Previous analysis updated – price as traded as outlined in analysis produced in June.
Pattern – we can see price has rallied nicely in July and I expect some further upside ahead. This is all part of the consolidation that I believe is still in motion. There is a full moon on the 26th August so that is some potential timing for a high. If not, the new moon on the 9th September is another potential timing target. Given the human body is composed of around 60% water and the moon affects the tides, then it should not come as a surprise that the moon is related to the stock market as the chart is just a picture of human behaviour. Just ask any hospital surgeon who will confirm that a surge in patients always occurs on a full moon and that same type of euphoria that causes revellers to hurt themselves on a high can be said of stock market players.
Sunday, August 12, 2018
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
We are now well into the school summer holidays so families are very busy planning where to go next, that usually includes many trips to Britain's Theme parks where the king of UK attractions is Merlin with it's 32 theme parks spread out across the UK. With many asking which is Britians' best theme park as this video compares the results of multiple visits to Merlin's largest and most popular theme parks i.e. Alton Towers, Thorpe Park, Chessington World of Adventures and of course probably the most known of the lot Lego Land Windsor.