Monday, May 28, 2018
A Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers / Economics / Recession
By: F_F_Wiley
Last month we took sides in the ongoing debate about the Great Yield Curve Scare—we argued that the curve hasn’t flattened enough to deliver a strong recession signal at this point in time. We showed that the recent flattening is similar to those that occurred at various stages of the last nine business-cycle expansions, but usually before the midpoints. In other words, history places today’s curve in an early- or mid-cycle position, not late-cycle as commonly believed. We concluded that the recent flattening isn’t all that interesting as far as the business cycle is concerned.
Monday, May 28, 2018
Economy Still Too Strong to Induce Stocks Bear Market Recession / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The adage “the stock market is not the economy” is true on a day to day and week to week basis. But it isn’t true in the medium-long term. The stock market and the economy move in the same direction over the long term. This means that you can predict the future of the stock market by predicting the future of the economy (fundamentals).
The adage “the stock market leads the economy” is true, but only when you look at the “economy” through the lens of GDP. These charts show that the stock market topped before a recession started in the 4 historical bear markets since 1950.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 28, 2018
Theme Parks 2 Min Bar Hang Challenge - Normal vs Spinning / Rotating Bar / ConsumerWatch / Theme Parks
By: Anika_Walayat
Summers here and everyone's off to the theme parks where your likely to come across the 2 Minute Bar Hang Challenge to win a prize! Seems easy enough, but only one problem, the bar rotates! So see how much more harder hanging from a spinning / rotating bar's is as compared to hanging from a normal fixed pull up bar as Anika who can easily hang for more than 2 minutes from a normal pull up bar does the comparison test, so one would expect should stand a good chance of beating the 2 min bar hang challenge at theme parks such as Alton Towers. Now watch exactly what the difference is between the two in terms of difficulty before you decide to hand out your hard earned cash and have a go!
Sunday, May 27, 2018
How Trump’s Ditching of Iran Nuclear Deal Affirms American Unipolarity with Obama’s help / Politics / US Politics
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Trump White House plans to break the Iran deal by sanctioning companies from Europe and Asia doing business in and with Iran. Ironically, President Obama paved the way to unilateral sanctions.For three years, the comprehensive nuclear accord (JCPOA) has offered Iran relief from US, UN and multilateral sanctions on energy, financial, shipping, automotive and other sectors. But recently that era came to a halt. “The United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal,” President Trump said on May 8.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 27, 2018
Blackstone, BlackRock or a Public Bank for California’s Money? / Politics / US Politics
By: Ellen_Brown
California needs over $700 billion in infrastructure during the next decade. Where will this money come from? The $1.5 trillion infrastructure initiative unveiled by President Trump in February includes only $200 billion in federal funding, and less than that after factoring in the billions in tax cuts in infrastructure-related projects. The rest is to come from cities, states, private investors and public-private partnerships (PPPs). And because city and state coffers are depleted, that chiefly means private investors and PPPs, which have a shady history at best.
Sunday, May 27, 2018
EUR USD Forex Analysis / Currencies / Euro
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – 116.61Previous analysis updated – price has continued to trade down but the overall outlook calling for a substantial rally remains unchanged.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 27, 2018
Stock Market Study: How Long After a 10%+ “Small Correction” to Make New Highs? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 made a 10%+ “small correction” from January- February 2018. In a previous study I looked at how long it usually takes for the stock market to go from its correction bottom to a new all time high.
In today’s study I’m going to look at how long it usually takes for the S&P 500 to go from an old all-time high to making a new all time high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Gold, US Stocks and Bonds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
I’ll try to keep things simple with this recap of the 3 of the 5 major food groups (leaving aside commodities and currencies) for investors. No confusing you today with too many inter-market ratios, overly technical language or cute metaphors like the 3 Amigos (although it is notable that Amigo #2 is stopping exactly as we’d forecast, as you’ll see in the Bonds segment below).
So let’s take a technical look at a larger picture of the 3 groups using weekly charts for gold and SPX and a monthly for 30yr bond yields, along with some thoughts. We’ll reserve the shorter-term technical management for subscriber updates and weekly NFTRH reports.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Climate Change Canaries and Our Changing Climate / Personal_Finance / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
Climate change is the buzz word of the 21st century along with its controversial cousin, “global warming,” with both cited frequently as explanations for evidence of our planet in ecological flux. This includes freak winter storms that appear to contradict the “warming” thesis, scorching summer droughts, water shortages, rising sea levels, retreating glaciers, melting permafrost, skinny polar bears, dying coral reefs and the extinction of species.
While there is disagreement over its causes – man-made versus natural – the reality of climate change is an incontrovertible fact. The planet is warming, affecting our weather, our oceans, our growing seasons, even our food, as crops fail, causing shortages and price hikes. Storms are becoming more frequent, and more intense, and droughts are lasting longer.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Three Drivers of Gold, Second Look / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Let’s take a second look at the drivers of gold. We have already stated that the three most important factors are: the real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and the risk aversion. Fair enough. But we have presented just the first approximation. We need to dig deeper. Why?
First, all these variables are connected together. Many analysts and investors who listen to them often make a mistake, assuming that the forces which push one driver have no effect on the other inputs into the value of gold. This is a dangerous delusion, which may expose investors to heavy losses.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Gold Junior Stocks GDXJ ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The junior gold miners have largely been shunned over the past year or so, condemned to listlessly drift near lows. Their stock prices have suffered serious collateral damage from stubbornly-bearish gold sentiment. But they are faring much better under the hood than their battered visages suggest, with their latest quarterly results revealing strong fundamentals. Juniors are ready to soar when gold sentiment turns.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2018
What to Expect at a Critical Stock Market Point: End of a Wave 2 Rally / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
"Most investors are convinced that the bull market never went away."
The great game of Wall Street -- where huge amounts of money are at stake every trading day.
Many speculators play this game by watching for events outside of the stock market that they believe will "trigger" the next big move in prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2018
Merlin Passes Top Tips for Buying and Using Premium vs Standard, Theme Parks UK / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks
By: HGR
Summers 2018 has arrived and families are busy planning their summer holidays that usually include many trips to Britain's Theme parks where the king of UK attractions is Merlin with it's 32 theme parks spread out across the UK such as Alton Towers, Chessington, Legoland, Thorpe Park and the Dungeons and Sea Life centres, including a dozen clustered in and around London. So here are my top tips for buying and use of Merlin passes of whether you should buy Premium, Standard or a mix of both. Also we find out exactly what you get in a Merlin Premium Pass holders privilege pack, so find out if it's worth paying that extra £50 or not.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Trump “Victories” on Trade are Anything But / Politics / US Politics
By: Peter_Schiff
Earlier this year when President Trump began beating the drums loudly, causing fear of a trade war (and assuring us that such a conflict could be easily won), I cautioned that he had no idea the trouble he was courting. Based on his spectacular misunderstanding of the power dynamic built in to international trade, he was also in danger of bringing a knife to a gunfight.
As the year has progressed, the underbrush has gotten thornier, Trump’s progress on trade has slowed, and now it has likely stopped altogether. Despite that, in true Trumpian fashion, the President has declared resounding victory. But a quick look back reveals the opposite to be true.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2018
Spanish Political Crisis - This is the End of the Euro / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Spanish government is about to fall after the Ciudadanos party decided to join PSOE (socialist) and Podemos in a non-confidence vote against PM Rajoy. Hmm, what would that mean for the Catalan politicians Rajoy is persecuting? The Spanish political crisis is inextricably linked to the Italian one, not even because they are so much alike, but because both combine to create huge financial uncertainty in the eurozone.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Crude Oil: It’s Here! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous alerts we let you know how the situation in the crude oil was becoming increasingly bearish, but that it was not yet bearish enough to justify any action regarding the price. The risk was still too high to do so, and we explained that waiting for the confirmation was the preferable course of action. The confirmation has arrived.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Stock Market Distribution Pattern Revealed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures were positive overnight until 6:45 am, when the Commercials weighed in. I am illustrating a probable way the Commercials went from -132,091 short contracts on January 22 to -511,373 short contracts last Monday. It has been happening gradually over the past two months since the markets have been thin and getting thinner at each rally.
You may be wondering how over $8 billion went into the stock market last week, yet the entire week was a loss. It appears to be happening again this week. The reason is that, while the market isn’t performing as it had, there is still a fear of missing out (FOMO) of the next rally. Wall Street and the media are still sending out glowing reports about the next rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2018
The Bond Market Just Figured Out That Central Banks CANNOT Exit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
To recap yesterday’s piece concerning the recent shift in Central Bank policy, from mid-2016 onward:
1) Central Banks engaging in emergency levels of QE at a time in which their respective economies were growing.
2) Inflation bottoming then beginning to rise.
3) Bond markets starting to revolt.
4) Central Banks opting to walk back their QE programs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2018
Technical Analysis Confirms Stock Market SPX Support Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week presented some interesting price rotation after an early upside breakout Sunday night. The Asian markets opened up Sunday night with the ES, NQ and YM nearly 1% higher this week. This upside breakout resulted in a clear upside trend channel breakout that our researchers believe will continue to prompt higher price legs overall. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., have issued a number of research posts over the past few weeks showing our analysis and the upside potential in the markets that should take place over the next few weeks.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Stock Market Topping - Everything Looks Rosy at the End of a Trend! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
Hello everyone, hope your well.
A couple of interesting stories dropped today.
And the big picture to keep in mind when viewing these stories is this;
At the end of an economic trend, GOOD NEWS IS EVERYWHERE, AND THE FUTURE ALWAYS LOOKS BRIGHT!
Heres the first one: Trump signs the biggest rollback of bank rules since the financial crisis
Read full article... Read full article...