Friday, June 10, 2022
Will Ignoring Fundamentals Take Revenge on Bullish Stock Traders? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the Fed strives to tame inflation, short-term investors continue to ruin its efforts with bullish actions. Will their love of risk pay off?
With the S&P 500 enjoying a mid-day rally on Jun. 7 and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior gold and silver mining stocks) following suit, the bulls warmed up to the idea of a "soft landing." However, with a much higher U.S. federal funds rate needed to cool inflation, the short-term optimism should be short-lived.
To explain, I've noted on numerous occasions that risk-on sentiment often reverberates across multiple markets. Therefore, when stocks bid higher, commodities usually follow, and this increases the Fed's inflation conundrum. As a result, investors' optimism enhances the pricing pressures.
Friday, June 10, 2022
Food and Gas Prices: Is the Rising Trend (Finally) Ending? / Economics / Inflation
By: EWI
The Elliott wave structure of a key commodity ETF provides a clue
Consumers around the globe are wondering when they will finally see some relief from rising prices at the gas pump and grocery store.
It's difficult for these consumers to get a handle on what to expect from reading recent headlines because some are conflicting.
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Thursday, June 09, 2022
UK Housing Market Affordability Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Most academic housing market commentators focus on the various measures of housing market affordability or rather unaffordability as house prices despite the price crash of 2008-2009 never fell to anywhere near the affordability levels of the early 1990's housing bear market lows and therefore ivory tower academics have continued to cling onto expectations that a further house prices crash is inevitable so as to fit in with their theoretical models of where house prices should fall to in terms of affordability that gets liberally regurgitated in the mainstream press, and looking at the graph below it is very easy to be seduced by something that on first glance appears obvious that house prices really did have a long way to fall to reach the affordability levels of the past.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2022
Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2022
The Horns of Fed‘s Inflation Dilemma / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.
For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2022
Quick loan, a new business strategy / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Mark_Adan
If you are looking for a better business policy and a new way to get start your business, quick loans are the right solutions for you.
- Quick loan is part of an innovative strategy which are different from the orthodox system of loans given by various banks.
- The lending process is simple and quick and you can succeed easily in the application process without any delay.
- If you are eligible for the application, the registration and verification process is very meek and feasible.
- After this lender will immediately transfer the required amount to your bank account and the online account as you wish.
Monday, June 06, 2022
How To Improve Your Business As A Small Manufacturer / Companies / SME
By: Steve_Barker
The manufacturing industry is ever-evolving. This industry has been the first to experiment with technological tools, automated manufacturing units, and techniques to improve its production capabilities. There are several methods small manufacturers can implement to improve their production efficiency and thrive in their niche. Without further ado, let’s examine some of these methods.
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Monday, June 06, 2022
UK Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!
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Monday, June 06, 2022
Understanding Profit Potential In Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
An analysis of any profit potential in gold requires an understanding of gold and its fundamentals. The problem is that most folks do not understand gold or its fundamentals.“Most folks” includes investors, traders, speculators, advisors, analysts, marketers, etc.
THERE IS ONLY ONE GOLD FUNDAMENTAL
The single fundamental for gold is that gold is real money. PERIOD. Gold’s value is in its use as money.
Whereas gold is real money, the US dollar and all paper currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e., gold.
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Monday, June 06, 2022
Why Do People Love Playing Live Games? / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
The online casino industry is quickly developing, and modern games impress with their realism and numerous amazing features. Online gambling is extremely convenient, allowing users not to waste time getting to a certain place and meeting friends for the next game. It is enough to go to the chosen site, select a game, invite a friend, and start the gaming process immediately.
Live dealer games are now on the rise since they fully resemble the atmosphere of a real gaming hall. Moreover, it’s important to note that each modern live casino uk provides many advantages compared to what users could observe only several decades ago. The top benefits imply:
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
UK Housing Market Over Crowding Ratio / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is one of my custom UK housing market indicators that more clearly illustrates the degree of housing market crisis that Britain finds itself in as a ratio between the accumulative change in population since 1970 against the accumulative number of new completed house builds also since 1970 which shows the magnitude of the trend in over crowding of Britain's housing market that given recent mainstream press headlines based on academic studies clearly remain largely blind to the consequences of, because they still are unable to visualise the magnitude of Britain's housing crisis that has WORSENED since Britain voted to LEAVE the EU which should act as a warning to those who contemplate ever holding a second EU referendum, as it implies LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin next time!
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
Inflation Mutation - This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
White House Inflation Scapegoat / Politics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
As the Biden administration scrambles to try to contain inflation – or at least make a public relations show of it – precious metals investors are wondering how much longer gold and silver prices will remain contained.
Metals markets got a bit of a lift this week through Thursday but have pulled back a bit here today. As of this Friday recording, gold is flat for the week now to trade at $1,860 per ounce. And silver is down 20 cents or 0.9% this week to trade at $22.12 an ounce.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
Stock Market Rally on Borrowed Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 was indeed building a bull flag, which „must“ now continue with a fresh upleg so that the formation is validated. Odds are that in spite of the tech-led upswing, the rally would continue. All that‘s required for today, is a not too disappointing non-farm payrolls figure, which would (in the market‘s mind) give the Fed some leevay in taking on inflation while not choking off economic growth (however decelerating). Optimal outcome would be a figure somewhat below expectations as that would enable speculation as to how far the Fed would move towards focus on growth (the Brainard view of things) and away from Powell‘s resolute (verbally resolute, to be precise – big difference) inflation fighter pose. Yesterday‘s Yellen admission on getting it wrong, is a preview of more hawkish monetary policies still ahead.
That‘s why I‘ve said that this rally wasn‘t sustainable, but it still has further to go. Treasuries aren‘t relenting in the pressure on the Fed to act, and the central bank would have to catch up. It‘s a question of time when this risk-on reprieve runs its course. Yesterday‘s turn in precious metals and copper is a preview of what such a Fed turn would imemdiately cause – helping the open positions mightily. And I‘m not even talking the sizable open profits in crude oil...
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Friday, June 03, 2022
Is AMAZON a DYING Tech GIANT? / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stocks bear market continues with most AI tech stocks putting in new bear market lows during the past week, with key exceptions being Facebook and AVGO. Whilst Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia were the weakest stocks of the week, though all stocks rallied strongly Friday led by AMD which ended the week up 10% followed by Micron at +6% which are definitely two stocks to aim to accumulate during any further market weakness.
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Friday, June 03, 2022
FREE Japanese Candlesticks Trading Course / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Hi reader,
One of the best ways to get an edge in trading is to hand-pick a few select tools for your arsenal.
Japanese Candlesticks are one such tool. In skilled hands, they can really show you the trend and alert you to trend reversals.
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Friday, June 03, 2022
What to Make of the Stock Market’s Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"“For certain, there will be countertrend rallies"
The stock market selloff from March into the May low was comprised of eight straight weeks of decline in the Dow Industrials.
This was historic. The Dow Industrials have been around for 126 years and this was only the second time that the senior index suffered a decline for eight consecutive weeks. The other time was in 1923 -- also March into May.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The below graph shows the UK annual population change against annual net additional dwellings which includes completed new builds.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Where Is Gold Price Going From Here? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After briefly reaching highs above $2000, Gold has fallen to $1785 (-14%) following the deep selling in the US major indexes throughout most of April & May 2022.
Interpretation Of The Current Consolidation In Gold
My team and I see the recent lows in Gold as similar to the April/May 2009 consolidation after the Global Financial Crisis. Also similar to the January 2013 consolidation before an extended -34% price decline took place – ending in December 2015.
The primary difference between now and then is that the US Federal Reserve is currently initiating a new round of Quantitative Tightening (QT), raising rates, while battling Inflation. In both the previous examples, the US Federal Reserve was moving aggressively into Quantitative Easing, attempting to aid in the recovery of the US & the global economy.
It seems to me, that the underlying factors driving the price of Gold have drastically changed. All it would take for Gold to break into a new trend, up or down, would be to see some new catalyst or contagion event come to life.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Bubble Trouble / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
As month five of this bear market comes to an end, expert Michael Ballanger goes over some bear market stories that left him with battle scars and provides some insight on what to expect in the months ahead.
Month five of the Great 2022-202? Bear Market is almost complete so I thought you all might wish to hear a few “war stories” from past bear markets, some of which I endured while none of which I even vaguely enjoyed. First, I offer the MJB “primer”…
“The key to long-term profits on Wall Street is not making big killings; it’s not getting killed.”
—Daniel Turov
At the bottom of bear markets (or at the start of bull markets), stocks are like moored boats at low tide, resting on the sand desperately in need of the resurgent surf.
As markets turn, it is analogous to the tide roaring in and when it does, it lifts all boats, big and small, and it doesn’t care whether a vessel is leaking or whether it is tight. Warren Buffett coined a phrase that perfectly describes how bear markets expose flawed business models in heavily-pumped companies when he said, “Bear markets are like the tide going out; you soon learn who is swimming without trunks.”
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