Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Gold-Backed Currency? Not Any Time Soon, But Be Prepared / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
Last year, many in 2013 were calling for the price of gold and silver to double, and more! Then came 2014 and those dashed hopes were pushed back to the second half of 2014. Earlier, in the first half of the year, we said that the second half could likely be more of the same, as in 2013, [See 2014 Could Be A Yawner]. With just a few weeks away from the end of the year, prospects for 2015 can equally be brought into question re PM price appreciation.
Is the petrodollar on the way out? More frequently, the signs say yes. Is a gold-backed currency standard waiting to replace it? Beliefs, at least in the PM community, remain high, but facts to substantiate the beliefs are hard to find. Sure, China and Russia have been and continue to be the largest buyers of physical gold, but is either the Renminbe or the Ruble ready for Prime Time? The short answer is no, and more emphatically for the Ruble. While the Renminbe is becoming more widely viewed as a potential replacement for the "dollar," China has nowhere near the capability of a world reserve currency system and all that it entails.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Opecology Or The Art Of Saying Nothing / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Threat of $57 Oil
The recent head of the World Petroleum Council, Renato Bertani speaking from Houston in interview with Russia Today TV, December 1st, was set an increasingly ridiculous set of questions by the energetic if dumb interviewer lady in the Moscow bureau. She asked him if Peak Oil was true and if ISIS or ISIL was pricing its stolen oil (she said $30 a barrel) at the “right price”? Would oil get really cheap before it disappeared (not cheap after it disappeared)? Is fracking sustainable and are US producers lying when they say $57 a barrel is a price they can live with? Will hydrogen-fueled cars wipe out world oil demand? Would global warming terrify us so much we woke up one day and totally renounced oil? How will OPEC stabilize and control the market and set the right oil price for everybody (she didn't suggest we ask Goldman Sachs how they do it). Time for a sucker's rally!
Saturday, December 06, 2014
Crude Oil Price Slump: 7% Hit for Global Hotel Stock Prices and 25% Hit for Dubai Hotel Revenues Is Predicted / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time. The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction made three years ago)... says the slump will last four years.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Global Crude Oil Consumption - What Countries Have Increased or Decreased Usage Since 2009? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reader David Epperson sent in some interesting charts on global oil usage that he produced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. The data is through the end of 2013.
David writes...
Read full article... Read full article...Hello Mish,
I was curious how much oil consumption had declined over the last few years, so I went to the EIA web site, downloaded the consumption data and produced the following charts.
Friday, December 05, 2014
Russia and China’s Natural Gas Deals Are a Death Knell for Canada’s LNG Ambitions / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Marin_Katusa
In recent years, a number of Asian companies have been betting that Canada will be able to export cheap liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its west coast. These big international players include PetroChina, Mitsubishi, CNOOC, and, until December 3, Malaysian state-owned Petronas.
However, that initial interest is decidedly on the wane. In fact, while the British Columbia LNG Alliance is still hopeful that some of the 18 LNG projects that have been proposed will be realized, it’s now looking less and less likely that any of these Canadian LNG consortia will ever make a final investment decision to forge ahead.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
Gold Shorting Exhaustion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s been on an incredible roller-coaster ride over the past couple months, whipsawing like crazy. And contrary to popular rationalizations, these swings had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals. Their sole driver has been American speculators’ extreme shorting of gold futures, which has battered gold’s price around in the absence of investment demand. But this epic gold shorting looks exhausted.
The core mission of all trading, whether long-term investing or rapid-fire speculation, is buying low and selling high. That’s the only way to multiply wealth in the financial markets. Short sellers execute this same strategy, but reverse the order. They borrow assets they don’t own, sell them presumably high, and later hopefully buy them back low to repay their debts. The key to shorting is selling high, not selling low.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
Why OPEC Will Tolerate Cheap Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Browne
Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) voted on November 27th not to cut production in order to boost prices. The key to this decision appears to have been the attitude of Saudi Arabia, which has long been the first among equals in the coalition. Not surprisingly, the decision led to further oil price declines, and led many observers to conclude that OPEC has largely lost the ability to upwardly influence the price of petroleum. But this determination ignores the wider geopolitical considerations that may be convincing Saudi Arabia to be perfectly content, for now, with lower prices.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
Gold Price Post Referendum Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
It turns out the Swiss referendum last weekend which sought to force the Swiss National Bank to maintain 20% gold reserves was a red herring so far as precious metal markets are concerned. It was fairly obvious before the referendum that no sensible trader would had bought gold in the expectation it would go through, so there would be few short-term sellers afterwards. Equally, it was so obvious to traders the referendum would fail that there may have been some short-sellers, or perhaps deferred buying waiting for the event to pass.
Friday, December 05, 2014
Commodities and the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Each commodity market has its own story to tell: oil prices are falling because OPEC can’t agree production cuts, steel faces a glut from overcapacity, and even the price of maize has fallen, presumably because of good harvests.
In local currencies this is not so much the case. Of course, the difference between prices in local currencies and prices in US dollars is reflected in the weakness of most currencies against the dollar in the foreign exchange markets. This tells us that whatever is happening in each individual commodity and in each individual currency the common factor is the US dollar.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
ECB Draghi’s QE Battle With Germany; Rules Out ECB Gold Buying / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The European Central Bank will decide early next year whether to follow the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan with quantitative easing or money creation to buy government bonds and other assets but will not buy gold, its president Mario Draghi said yesterday.
Speaking in the ECB's new 1.3 billion euro headquarters, an imposing Frankfurt skyscraper designed to show the strength of the ‘single’ currency, Draghi threw down the gauntlet to Germany and signaled that he would not allow opposition from Germany or anyone else to stop the ECB’s QE.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
The Precious Metals Guarantee / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
A friend recently sent me a picture of a 1957 $1 silver certificate he found in his change while buying a cup of coffee. He’d been a coin collector as a kid and learned that his father carried nearly the same note in his wallet.
When I brought up Gresham’s law and the recent news that U.S. public and private debt had just breached the $18 trillion mark, it made very little impression, other than a brief pause in thought, though barely recognition.
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Friday, December 05, 2014
Gold Market Manipulation, US Resorts to Illegality to Protect Failed Financial Policies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
In a blatant and massive market intervention, the price of gold was smashed on Friday. Right after the Comex opened on Friday morning 7,008 paper gold contracts representing 20 tonnes of gold were dumped in the New York Comex futures market at 8:50 a.m. EST. At 12:35 a.m. EST 10,324 contracts representing 30 tonnes of gold were dropped on the Comex futures market:
Friday, December 05, 2014
39 cent Gasoline, Man that is GREAT ! A Cautionary Tale / Commodities / Gas - Petrol
By: Submissions
Nicholas Migliaccio writes: It was sad at today's Update Webinar to hear these esteemed TA market guys falling all over themselves, whistling past the graveyard so they didn't have to call what the markets were doing as Rolling over in to a DownTrend.
OMG, did I let that Awful world DOWNTREND see daylight.......? Oh NO ! Sad, these guys are SO mainstream paradigm that you could hear them tremble. Damn shame, another place, another time, you'd pub up with them for a beer. Now however they are just apologists trying to save their salaries. Investors don't buy their services when they are not outright bullish. I mean I cannot even get educated astute business people to execute a Sell STOP after their Limit gets violated, that is how brain-washed people are.
Friday, December 05, 2014
US's Debt Not Such a Big Deal - Mr. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Gary_Tanashian
Mr. Gold's last paragraph is the tell on his bias, as he is unwilling or unable to conceal the contempt he has for people who were absolutely right for 10 years+ and are now suffering a bear market, both to their asset of choice and in sound monetary thinking.
Read full article... Read full article..."The vastly improved fiscal situation may last only a few years, but it's a big plus for U.S. markets and the U.S. dollar -- and another nail in the coffin for the gold bugs and doom-and-gloomers who can add one more item to the long list of things they got really, really wrong."
Thursday, December 04, 2014
OPEC is Playing a Losing Hand (Get Ready to Win Some Heavy Money) / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Every 10 or 20 years a series of watershed events come together that change the face of the international energy picture.
The Saudi-led oil war is one of these pivotal situations.
And while others are fretting about what the OPEC production move means, I’m actually meeting with the guys who made the decision.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
New Signs Gold and Silver Are Returning as Monetary Assets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Stefan Gleason writes: Much to the chagrin of the financial elite, gold and silver are reentering the American consciousness and starting to shake the wing nutty image of their recent past. But it’s taken a global financial crisis to get the public’s attention – one that could wipe out our nation at almost any moment.
The U.S. government’s role in the economy is on a seemingly interminable upward trajectory. The government’s official debt balance that just crossed the $18 trillion mark (with additional unfunded liabilities estimated at more than $100 trillion). Half the population now lives in households that receive government payments.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
With The U.S Market Looking Bullish, How Do You Invest In Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Nicholas Maithya writes: This year has been one of the best for US equities in recent times, at least judging by the movement of the leading indices – the S&P 500 (SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the NASDAQ Composite (IXIX), along with their corresponding ETFS. They have all rallied to record highs this year, albeit with dips and rebounds that often characterize an upward trending market.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
Gold 2014 YTD in JPY, EUR, GBP and USD / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
Despite the worst sentiment towards gold we have seen since the brief 30% price fall in 2008, gold continues to eke out gains in all major currencies. So far in 2014, gold is 14.3%, 12.3%, 5.8% and 0.4% higher in japanese yen, euros, sterling and dollars respectively (see chart).
Thursday, December 04, 2014
The Myth of Lower Oil Prices Will Hit Consumers / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Media elites and Wall Street cheerleaders are greeting lower oil prices with open arms.
Investors should beware these self-appointed experts bearing gifts.
Oil prices are falling for reasons that should be surprising to nobody: supply has been rising and demand has been falling. If prolonged, which it is likely to be, the drop in oil prices is going to be destabilizing geopolitically and damaging economically.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
Could Falling Crude Oil Prices Spark a Financial Crisis? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The oil and gas boom in the United States was made possible by the extensive credit afforded to drillers. Not only has financing come from company shareholders and traditional banks, but hundreds of billions of dollars have also come from junk-bond investors looking for high returns.
Junk-bond debt in energy has reached $210 billion, which is about 16 percent of the $1.3 trillion junk-bond market. That is a dramatic rise from just 4 percent that energy debt represented 10 years ago.