Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 01, 2014
If Crude Oil Price Can Drop 40%, What’s Gold Going To Do? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Amusing, that Swiss vote today. Or rather, the three votes. I can’t oversee why the first one, the hike in taxes for foreigners, was rejected. It would seem reasonable that everyone living in a country pays a similar amounts in taxes, but perhaps there’s another angle to the topic that I haven’t read about.
The second vote, the one on immigration limits, initiated by an eco group, looks easier to understand. In a country smack in the middle of continental Europe, which has 3 official languages and where 25% of the population are foreigners, forcing the government to limit immigration by 80% from one day to the next, from 80,000 to 16,000 people, seems to be quite simply too steep a demand.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Oil Price Crash, Gold Price Bottom Trend Forecast 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Toby_Connor
It’s time to do a follow-up to my last Golden Bottom article. We are coming down to the wire and the action on Monday after the Swiss referendum should tell us whether gold has already formed a final bear market low, or whether we have one more drop in this intermediate cycle to the $1050 level before the final bottom.
If the vote is a yes then I suspect gold will reverse all of Friday’s losses and immediately head back up confirming that we got the final bear market bottom in early November.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Swiss Gold Vote Result - Anti-Gold Propaganda Prevails! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
This morning the final votes were cast on the Swiss Gold Initiative (most votes were submitted via post). As we speak the final votes are still being counted however we already know: The initiative has been rejected!
- The majority of votes of most individual cantons (some cantons’ votes are yet to be released) were against the initiative. As Switzerland has a federalist structure, this by itself already means that the initiative has been rejected.
- Public votes are still not final, but indications show that about 25% of the population voted for the initiative.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Oil Charts - Black Friday in The Energy Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to update a few oil charts I posted several weeks ago when oil was breaking out of that multi year five point triangle reversal pattern.
Editor's Note: See the links below to follow the evolution of this move in the Friday Night Energy Series.
Before we look at the bigger picture I want to show you a short term daily chart that had an interesting day. There are several things I like to look at when I see a stock that looks like it's breaking out. First, it's nice to see an increase in volume but sometimes it happens a day or to later. Secondly, it's always nice to see a gap where you were expecting a breakout. That gives you a little more confidence when your anticipating a breakout and it happens right where it should. The third thing I like to look for is a long bar that covers a lot of ground. It tells us that, in oils case, there were no more bulls left to defend the support zone, so they retreat en mass looking for the next support zone to try and defend. In a bear market all the bulls can do is put up some minor support as the big trend is down and they'll be overrun again in due time by the bears. You can clearly see this on the short term daily chart for oil below.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Switzerland Leads In Gold Sales Among Central Banks Since 1993 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Although they are still among the top ten in total gold holdings, Switzerland has been one of the largest sellers of gold among official entities since 1993.
It is no surprise then that the people of Switzerland have taken to a referendum to provide their opinions on this to the Swiss National Bank.
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Sunday, November 30, 2014
Fed Earmarked Gold Holdings Continued to Decline In October / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jesse
Nemo debet esse judex in propria causa.
Earmarked gold at the Federal Reserve dropped 42 tonnes for the month of October as foreign countries repatriate their gold.
Despite these declines the Fed's earmarked holdings are quite substantial to say the least.
One has to wonder why the German people are not able to get back their gold for seven years.
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
Gold And Silver For Elites, All The World’s A Stage, Including China And Russia / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Michael_Noonan
While the Shakespearean reference, from As You Like It, compares the world to the seven
ages of man, it can also be applied to the way in which the Rothschild formula for gaining
control of a nation’s money supply ultimately leads to that nation’s total subjugation to the
elites. It is the elite rent seeking who control the world, and that will not change in the
lifetime of anyone reading this, perhaps even for several successive generations to follow.
“Rent seeking” is defined as those who spend wealth on influencing a nation’s government in order to increase one’s wealth without creating new wealth. Think of it more as a transfer of resources from any faction in favor of gaining control of those resources to those who have the power to influence. It is an inherently unfair redistribution mostly accomplished by manipulating disadvantageous competition, abetted by those who are in a position to bring about such change. Rent seeking through lobbying efforts is an easy example. The fascist corporate model in the US today, like Monsanto and its mandated use of GMOs is another, almost always at the expense of everyone else.
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Saturday, November 29, 2014
Crude Oil Price Crash - What to Expect Next / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
OPEC Presents QE4 and Deflation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Crude Oil Price's Ups and Downs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Today’s Outside the Box is special, because I’m about to give you a preview of things to come at Mauldin Economics. For months now I have been saying to my partners that we need to develop a service for the professionals who read me – the financial advisors, portfolio managers, family offices… you know who you are. And I’m excited to tell you that we are very close to making this service a reality. It will be called Mauldin Pro, and it will feature global macro and geopolitical research and analysis, portfolio recommendations, monthly interviews with some of the best talent in the business, and quarterly seminars to help you improve your game.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Black Friday for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Black Friday has a few meanings. It has the retail connotation and interestingly also marks a Friday in September 1869 when the Gold price plummeted after two speculators attempted to corner the market. Today wasn't that bad for precious metals but it was a Black Friday given the severe selloff and the particular day and time of year. Gold declined over 2% and Silver lost nearly 7% while gold miners slipped 8% (GDX) and nearly 12% (GDXJ). Oil drove the decline but showed how vulnerable precious metals still are. Black Friday marked the end of the current rebound while raising the probability that Gold has yet to bottom.
Friday, November 28, 2014
Crude Oil Collapse, Gold’s Drop and Oil-driven Credit Collapse Worries / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Michael_J_Kosares
We all know that the major central banks around the world are on the same page when it comes to inflation: They want it higher. One member of the European Central Bank’s executive board, Yves Mensch, went so far as to suggest that Europe’s central bank might buy gold in an effort to ratchet up the inflation rate.
Today OPEC decided to take no action to stem the glut of oil depressing the price in global markets. The oil price is the chief driver of price inflation, thus with OPEC showing little interest in propping up the price, deflation starts to dominate market thinking. Thus the drop in various currencies – a miserable day for the British pound (the BoE is trying desperately to create inflation in the UK) – and the drop in gold.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Now Might Be A Good Time To Sell Gold Short-Term Before The Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
Nicholas Maithya writes: The price of gold has been on a gradual decline since hitting its best form and highest price ever in history in 2011 when it eclipsed $1,873 per ounce. The price of the yellow metal has experienced several dips and rebounds during this time, but at the end of the day, the main trend has remained the same all through, with the price falling to the current level of $1,193, the lowest level since 2010. This movement has been driven by a series of events that carry both fundamental and technical characteristics.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Will The Swiss People Resist The Massive Anti-Gold Propaganda? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldSilverWorlds
In this article, Claudio Grass, Managing Director at Global Gold Switzerland, provides an update on the context in which the Swiss vote is taking place this weekend. On Sunday, November 30th, end of day, the world will know whether Switzerland is going back to a form of a gold standard or not. What are the key takeaways right before the results of the gold vote?
The most striking observation of the vote is probably the huge propaganda that has been going in November. Claudio Grass, being a Swiss citizen but also working in the precious metals industry, points out that in October there was no public debate whatsoever about the vote. The establishment has been very quiet on the topic and there were no plans for any exposure on TV or in other media.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Dramatic Increase in Gold Flows into China / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Submissions
David Smith writes: For over two thousand years, China practiced what came to be known as the “tributary system,” reflecting the view that it alone was the center of the civilized world. All who wished to do business with the Chinese were considered tributary states. Rulers and travelers from other lands had to follow certain procedures, including gift giving, in order to associate or do business with them.
When Japan ignored this policy, it brought about two invasion attempts by the Mongols under Kublai Khan.
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Friday, November 28, 2014
Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan - Possible Return to Guilder and Mark / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
The Dutch and German governments were preparing emergency plans for a return to their national currencies at the height of the euro crisis it has emerged. These plans remain in place.
Friday, November 28, 2014
Gold Waiting for Godot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Alternatively, watching paint dry. That’s how it has felt this week with gold’s volatility slowing to a crawl ahead of Thanksgiving yesterday and the Swiss gold referendum on Monday. However, Open Interest[i] on Comex[ii], has suddenly collapsed for both gold and silver, indicating something interesting is going on.
Friday, November 28, 2014
Russia’s Gold Monetary Solution / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The hypothesis that follows, if carried through, is certain to have a significant effect on gold and the relationship between gold and all government-issued currencies. The successful remonetisation of gold by a major power such as Russia would draw attention to the fault-lines between fiat currencies issued by governments unable or unwilling to do the same and those that can follow in due course. It would be a schism in the world’s dollar-based monetary order.
Friday, November 28, 2014
Gold and Silver Price Discovery - When the Wrong Men Use the Right Means / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
I’m not a real farmer. But I suffer the lessons and I do my best when I talk with friends, neighbors, and families about the unintended benefits of ‘growing your own’…
..There is universal agreement about the problem of not really knowing where ‘the food’ comes from.
That may be at the core but is the basis for another fiasco of ignorance. The basic need for fair value underlies civil society; it is part and parcel to understanding where the food comes from.
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Thursday, November 27, 2014
Gold Price Would Soar on Possible Swiss Yes Vote / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By: GoldCore
There are just 3 days left until the“Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum this Sunday. On November 30, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to decide whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should back the Swiss franc with gold by increasing its gold holdings to 20% - up from current levels of 7%.
The conservative Swiss People's party proposed the initiative, called "Save Our Swiss Gold", with the intention of boosting the security and financial and monetary independence of Switzerland in these times of financial uncertainty. They believe that a 20% gold holding will protect the Swiss people from currency debasement, currency devaluation and an international monetary crisis.
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