Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Gold Reverses Early Advance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
SPOT GOLD PRICES reversed an early 0.8% bounce Tuesday lunchtime in London, drifting back to $936 an ounce as the Euro currency, commodities and world stock markets dipped on worse-than-expected US housing data.
Home-improvement giant Home Depot reported only a 7% drop in its second-quarter earnings. But new US housing starts and permits for July came in below both Wall Street forecasts and June's figure.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Gold Failure to Rally Leads to Significant Trendline Breaks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold ticked all the boxes it was supposed to last week, as it took up the slack on the turbulent fortunes of both the dollar and the euro, robustly trading in the $960s/oz. Since then a significant trendline has been broken, yesterday gold dropped into $930/oz territory. It has pushed up since but may be in a tight range between $920/oz and $940/oz over the next few sessions.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
China is Positioned to be the Oil Sector's Next Big Profit Play / Commodities / Oil Companies
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: If you’re looking for the next “Big Oil” play, bet on Beijing.
As we’ve been reporting for the past several years, China has been on a global commodities shopping spree, which includes locking up every source of oil that it can. The Red Dragon has cut deals in Africa, South America Russia and the Middle East - and won’t stop there. Even the mainstream news media is finally becoming aware of this crucial trend.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Gold Short-term Topping Signal Setting Up for a Further Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Given the currently low level of the VIX, optimism among paper asset investors has been converted to outright enthusiasm. The world has been saved, according to many of these enthusiasts, and now unlimited and happy growth awaits us. All that is required is patience, for economic growth will blossom and paper equities will again shine. That optimism exists in light of the historical evidence that no market that has been run up by a credit bubble avoids a long, painful, ongoing lateral correction that last years. Were the optimists correct in their beliefs, the Japanese stock market would be at a new high. A recent check confirms that not to be the case, almost twenty years after the peak.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Range Bound Silver Fails at Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
In the last update we had defined silver's overall trend as neutral, with it being rangebound between clearly defined and significant zones of support and resistance, and thus a trading sell towards the top of the range, i.e. on an approach to the $16 area, and a trading buy towards the bottom of it, in the $12 area. Since that update silver has regrouped and made another run at the resistance, but got no further than $15.20. However, over the past week the COT structure for silver, which was already deteriorating as we had earlier observed, has continued to worsen to the point that it has become bearish, at least over the short-term.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Gold Bulls and Bears Fight To Standstill, Trend About to Resolve / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Gold's bulls and bears have fought each other to a standstill so that an eerie calm now exists in the gold market, rather like the period in Europe known as the Phony War which was an early stage of the 2nd World War, where despite having declared war on each other, the major powers did not engage in significant military operations. Just as this phase was the "calm before the storm" it is clear from an examination of the gold chart that this time of tranquillity is about to end - that much we can be fairly sure about.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Speculators Aren’t Wicked, They Keep Commodity Markets Liquid / Commodities / Commodities Trading
This commentary is from our natural resources team
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) wrapped up its hearings on whether to install position limits on futures trading this week, and like other hot topics being tossed around Capitol Hill, misinformation seems to be running rampant.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Negative Confluence for Gold Miners GDX ETF / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
The big picture of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) argues strongly that the price structure has additional downside ahead that points to a test of the Jan-Aug support line, now at 35.65. The juxtaposition of price, the RSI, and MACD at this point looks to me like the GDX is vulnerable to considerly more downside than 35.60.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Commitment to Success in Commodity Trading / Commodities / Commodities Trading
As I have repeatedly stated… commodity trading is the easiest yet the hardest thing one can ever do. Too many aspiring commodity traders or forex traders search for the holy grail. They search for indicators…mechanical trading systems or basically the answers.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Gold, Stocks and Commodities Drop as Safehaven U.S. Dollar Soars / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
THE PRICE OF GOLD fell sharply against a strong US Dollar on Monday morning, falling through what one Asian dealer called "technical and psychological support at $942" to record the lowest Gold Fix so far this month at $937.50 an ounce.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Why Gold Will Break Above U.S. $1,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
This title should also read “and why gold equities will fly”. At GoldOz we have successfully predicted the Price of Gold (POG) movements on a fairly regular basis the past few years. This is a bold statement backed up by public record. The long consolidation patterns in the POG in between the strong up-legs have been quite regular since 2002. The extent of each price rise has been harder to predict however so we steer clear of this claim and prefer to follow the market until it “feels” and acts like a top.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Gold, Silver, Natural Gas and Crude Oil Commodity Trading Update / Commodities / Commodities Trading
I hope everyone had a great weekend and is now ready for another week of trading. I have put together a few simple charts to show you what we could see with prices in the near term. While I do not predict future price movements (because it is impossible to always be correct), I do like to know what could happen and be ready to take action when something significant occurs.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
Gold and Why Gold Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Understanding these times is its own reward. If, however, you understand the role of gold in these times, a reward of another magnitude awaits you.
Economic cycles of expansion and contraction are the inevitable result of central bank credit flows. So, too, are deflationary depressions and hyperinflations. Though far less frequent, the destruction caused by deflationary depressions and hyperinflations more than make up for their infrequency; and, today, after perhaps the longest absence of each in recent history, we are now about to experience both—perhaps this time in tandem.
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Sunday, August 16, 2009
Silver Outperforms Gold, So Should I Sell My Metals or Buy More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Legendary investor Jim Rogers says he can't wait for the International Monetary Fund to sell some of its gold holdings. Should that cause the price of gold to dip, Rogers says he will buy some more.
In fact, Rogers says he buys gold whenever he thinks about it.
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Sunday, August 16, 2009
Gold Marking Time Ahead of Inevitable Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Marking time. Moving sideways. Nothing to see here. Gold is getting really boring. It continues to move sideways inside that megaphone pattern. A break-out is inevitable, but when?
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Saturday, August 15, 2009
The Commodity World Is Growing In Strength, Gold the Special One! / Commodities / Commodities Trading
The commodity market is bubbling. Whether it be sugar reaching a three year high, copper and other base metals reaching almost one year highs, or oil and gold rising further. The markets are looking good.
They’re moving up on signs that the global recession is easing. This is boosting demand, especially in China and Asia, which is pushing prices up.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
John Doody Searching for Value Gold Stocks Comes Up With Winners / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
Heralded as "the best of today's best," Gold Stock Analyst author and publisher John Doody's Top 10 portfolio is up 61% through the end of July. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doody talks about misperceptions about a summer slump, his Market Cap metric, and select producers or near producers he thinks are well positioned to thrive in the current environment.
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Friday, August 14, 2009
Four Fascinating Facts on Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Sean Brodrick writes: The recent rally in the U.S. dollar has sent gold lower, dimming the hopes of gold bulls and putting fire in the bellies of those who say the yellow metal is just a “barbarous relic.” Maybe so. But I think the rally in the dollar is overstated, and gold is just taking a breather on a journey much higher.
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Friday, August 14, 2009
Central Bank Gold Agreement Sales Trend as Fear Morphs to Greed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Last Friday, the central banks of Europe extended their landmark agreement on gold sales. 18 national central banks, along with the European Central Bank itself, signed the third Central Bank Gold Agreement. CBGA 3, like its two predecessors, has major implications for gold that investors need to understand.
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Friday, August 14, 2009
Why did the U.S. Government Confiscate Gold in 1933 and Can It Happen Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
In this the second part of this series we look at the big global picture when President Roosevelt’s Administration confiscated the gold of U.S. citizens. Based on this part, in the next part we contemplate whether it can happen again.
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