Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Crude Oil Price Rocked by Investory Data / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Terrible inventory data (much more than expected) has rocked the long side of crude oil this AM and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE:  USO).  The price structure has pressed beneath its RISING 50 DMA at $66.29 into the low $63.50 area so far, and could be heading for a test of its 4 month support line, now at $61.30. Although today's action certainly has the fundamental catalyst to continue lower, let's be aware that the prior correction from the June highs above $73.00 into the July 13th low at $58.32 represents a completed MAJOR CORRECTION.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Gold Price Implodes, What Happened to the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: INO

I think it came as a big surprise to many traders that the gold market imploded on Tuesday pushing to its lowest levels in several days.

The downward spiral was enough to trigger a daily "Trade Triangle" which moved us into the neutral camp on this market. Exiting our long gold position based on our "Trade Triangle" signals produced a very small profit or in some cases of break even trade.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Storing Bullion Internationally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: GoldCore

"Tis the part of the wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not venture all his eggs in one basket.”

Many investors internationally will wish that they had paid attention to the wise old proverb used by Cervantes in Don Quixote in 1605.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

China the 800lb Gorilla of Commodities Demand / Commodities / Articles

By: The_Gold_Report

Increasing the money supply invariably leads to inflation—but that's not the only factor driving it. "Populist policies that are focused on protectionism and unionism will force inflation in America," says Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors. While he doesn't anticipate across-the-board inflation, he does foresee certain commodities having stronger inflation than others. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Frank discusses changing patterns in commodity prices and how investors can gauge where they're headed next.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The Three Triggers for the Global Gold Bubble / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: As you review your investment portfolio to size up your current exposure to gold, keep one key point in mind: When it comes to profits, there's no rush like a speculative gold rush.

And that's just what we have at hand.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

U.S. Dollar Dying, Gold Gleaming / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson and Richard Mogey write: Although sharp rallies are always possible, we have no doubt the greenback’s long-term future is grim.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Gold and Silver Moving Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Frederic_Simons

The week ended with gold and silver closing near or at their highs for the week, with silver slightly outperforming gold. 

The following charts illustrate the short term picture for both gold and silver:

Monday, July 27, 2009

Rearranging Deck Chairs On The U$$ Titanic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Captain_Hook

America’s paper empire is slowly sinking into the sea, and all the powers that be can do about it is rearrange the deck chairs for a while as they wait for the inevitable. Increasingly, more and more people are comparing the US to Japan, and it’s 20-plus year bear market / economic doldrums, realizing try as they might, the prognosis for American is a match. This is of course why the stock market trading patterns are a match, because once you bubblize the real estate market (Japan peaked in 1990) it’s all over, as this assures a structural high in credit creation that cannot be fixed as easily as floating a new CDO, or throwing a trillion or two at the bond market. Nope – once you play that card, as Sir Allen did back in 2002 to counter the negative effects of the tech wreck, yet another bubble he inspired, there’s nothing left to do but inflate with abandon and hope nobody notices.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Waiting for Crude Oil to Reverse to the Downside / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My optimal pullback target zone for the PowerShare DB Double Short Oil ETN (NYSE: DTO) is 82.00-79.00, which has been met today.  However, so far the inability of the DTO to turn up with sustainability and leave little doubt that the correction off of the 7/13 high at 99.50 is complete is bothersome, and suggests perhaps that more corrective weakness is forthcoming ahead of my anticipation of a powerful upside pivot reversal. 

Monday, July 27, 2009

Essential Gold Stock Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks

By: Neil_Charnock

Australia is a major gold producing nation and a stable political environment in which to operate mining activities.  The global interest in our sector is significant and we have seen massive capital inflows into the sector during the past 18 months, both during and in contrast to very tough international credit / investment conditions.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Silver Increasingly Bearish COT Data / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Clive_Maund

Although silver moves very much in lockstep with gold, it is looking considerably stronger than gold at this point. The reason for this is its role as an industrial commodity - when the stockmarket is high and rising, as now, silver usually outperforms gold, but once the stockmarket turns, silver then underperforms.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Gold and Gold Stocks at Risk of Serious Reversal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Clive_Maund

The chances of gold breaking out to new highs in the near future are rapidly diminishing as the heavy hitters who have always prevailed up to this point are dramatically ramping up their short positions. Our COT chart shows a big increase in Commercial short positions just over the week up to last Tuesday to levels that in the past have preceded major reactions in gold. While there is still a fair chance of gold making a run at its highs over the short-term, there is considered to be very little chance now of a breakout to new highs, and any such advance towards the highs would likely be accompanied by a further ballooning of Commercial short positions to an even more extreme level that would all but guarantee a heavy reaction.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Agri-Food's Investing Bypasses Illusory Stimulus Driven Economic Growth / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Some, and perhaps more than we imagine, economic sectors are immune to the failing economic policies of the Obama Regime. Those industries being driven by the dominant global trends should be somewhat resilient to the ongoing economic problems of the U.S. However, none will totally escape as the U.S. is such an important economic center of consumption. How do investors escape this reliance on U.S. economic activity level? The answer is, quite simply, Agri-Food.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Precious Metals Rally Running Out of Steam, Or Going a Lot Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

In the previous essay I wrote the following: Recently the precious metals market has been influenced by developments in the general stock market, which contributed to a considerable extent to its recent downswing and subsequent rally. At the moment, the technical situation for the main stock indices is favorable, which means that precious metals are likely to move higher as well.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Commodities Technical Trading Setups for Gold, Crude Oil and Natural Gas ETF's / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodities are trying to hold their ground and could go either way quickly. There is a lot of chatter going on about gold and silver. I am hearing extreme theories from everyone I talk with. Generally when I see the market get jumpy we tend to see volatility increase which translates into sharp rallies or sell offs.

Monday, July 27, 2009

The Day the U.S. Dollar Died and Gold was Reborn / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Bill_Downey

Who would have thought that the information age would be so confusing?  Given the same set of conditions, man has this tendency to find different interpretations of the same data.  For instance, there is a huge inflation/deflation debate going on.  The problem (for some of us) is that both sides can and do give good argument for their respective side.  When I read a good deflation article, I am convinced that it will be so.  That is, until I read a good inflation article.  Then I tend to start thinking inflation again. 

Monday, July 27, 2009

Gold Bull Market Guaranteed to Make new Highs During 2009 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Douglas_V._Gnazzo

Gold - For the week gold gained $14.10 (+1.50%) to close at $951.50 (continuous contract). This was the highest weekly close in the last seven weeks, so it is a positive development, especially if it holds.

The daily chart below shows gold approaching overhead resistance, as represented by the late March high, which is marked by the upper white horizontal line on the chart.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Gold Marking Time Ahead of Next Direction Explosion, Up or Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Merv_Burak

It was actually somewhat of a BLAH week in the market.  Monday was gang busters and then nothing for the rest of the week.  Gold seems to be marking time waiting for the next explosion, up or down.

PRECIOUS METAL FUNDAMENTALS

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Will Big U.S. Banks Be Forced to Cover Large Gold Short Positions? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

For many years, accusations that JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have wide open and huge, exposed short positions against gold and silver, have been made by groups like GATA and others. In the United States these four banks control over 90% of the derivatives market. They too will be subject to "substantial supervision and regulations," including conservative capital requirements and strong business conduct standards. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is set to propose giving securities and futures regulators authority to police the over-the-counter derivatives market. Discussions on these regulations begin next week.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

When to Buy Stocks on Bad News / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Q1_Publishing

The old Wall Street adage says to “buy on bad news, sell on good news.”

This simple strategy paid off well for decades.