Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The Insanity of Rising Crude Oil AND Gold Prices / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Brian_Bloom
One characteristic of the charts is that they show patterns which demand attention, regardless of any preconceptions or prejudices one might have.
I have been writing fairly extensively recently about a psychological phenomenon known as “cognitive dissonance” which – broadly speaking – means that a healthy mind cannot comfortably hold two conflicting thoughts simultaneously. Typically what happens if one has a fairly well entrenched view on any subject, and a piece of conflicting evidence manifests, is that one either rejects the new evidence as being “obviously” (?) wrong, refuses to acknowledge its existence, or rationalises it away as being unimportant.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Gold Bullion and Stocks Flashing Seasonal Buy Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Gold and Silver Stocks of the HUI index, past and present, as well as future expectations. This essay looks at the seasonal lows for the HUI index, and examines the rise that followed this low, for the past 9 cycles (1999 – 2008). This study should give us a good idea for future expectations, regarding the remainder of 2008. “As the HUI goes, so goes the gold price”. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Primer in Mining Equity Market Investments / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: John_Lee
In the past paper, we talked about the vast performance disparity among metals, and offered our take on which metals to buy (Gold, Zinc) and which to avoid (Copper) going forward.
Not all metals are created equal - metals review: http://new.goldmau.com/article.php?id=224 In this paper, we will provide the rationale behind mining equity investment, how to choose between metals futures or metals miners, and conclude with which mining sectors to buy and which to avoid.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Gold Turns Bullish on Surging Global Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD rose in London on Monday morning, undoing most of last week's 1% loss to trade above $963 per ounce as the New York opening approached.Crude oil bounced from a seven-week low beneath $129 per barrel after US forecasters put a 29% chance on Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength as it enters the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico .
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Both Inflation or Deflation Point to Recession, Gold Outperforms Gold Stocks During Bear Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $956.40, down $12.70 and silver fell 53 cents to 18.12. Gold traded sideways to slightly up in Asia before rising in early European trading by nearly 1%.
Despite the very sharp fall in oil prices and other commodities last week, gold only fell by 0.2%. Silver was down by 3%. August Crude fell by more than 11% - it fell $16.34 from over $145 to $128.74. And Prudent Bear's Doug Noland points out that August Gasoline sank 11.5% (up 27.8% y-t-d), and August Natural Gas dropped 10.2% (up 42.9% y-t-d). September Copper declined 1.9%. September Wheat fell 3.2% and August Corn sank 11.8%. The CRB index was hit for 7.4% (up 19.1% y-t-d). The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) sank 9.5% (up 30.5% y-t-d and 55% y-o-y).
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Gold Projects Bullish Trend to $1215 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold has basically been on a roll for over a month, maybe it's time for a little rest. At this point it looks like no more than a rest but let's go through the routine.
GOLD : LONG TERM - I've been away for a few weeks so this week is sort of a “catch-up” week. The long term P&F Chart shows an upside break-out with a projection to the $1215 level. That would put us into new all time high territory and could cause the price to continue towards that long held, very long term, projection to the $1600 mark.
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Gold Slips as US Dollar Bounces, Soros Buying Gold Shorting Crude Oil / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD dropped 1.3% at lunchtime in London on Friday, sliding into the US open – and heading for its first weekly loss in five – as world stock markets ticked higher.The US Dollar rose on the forex market. Crude oil futures jumped 2.1% – "a dead cat bounce," according to one trader – after suffering their worst drop since Dec. 2004 so far this week.
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Friday, July 18, 2008
George Soros Buying Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $957.00, down $4.00. Gold traded sideways rose in Asia before rising in early European trading and then falling again and is now down 0.15% for the day.Equity markets have bounced on what is likely to be another short term correction on massive short covering. Poor earnings from Google, Microsoft, Merrill and now Citigroup this morning should result in gold remaining well bid and support is at $950.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Crude Oil Breaks Below Major Support as Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude Oil confirmed its forecast downtrend by decidedly breaking below support of $135. The Market Oracle forecast as of 4th of July 2008 and at a price of $146, has been for an initial downtrend to support of $135, on break of which crude oil would target a trend towards major support at $110.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Gold More Weakness Ahead? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's notice that the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) peaked on Tuesday at 97.50 at the top of its June-July price channel, and in the past 48 hours or so has traversed the channel to test its lower support line just above 93.50, which so far has contained the decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Commodity Market Forecasts for Soft's, Agricultural's and Livestock / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert
commodity
forecasting services until noon Wednesday,
July 23.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Traders Only– Prepare to SELL GOLD / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ronald_Rosen
As many of you know, I use many different methods to achieve my trading signals but one of the most important is the measurement of TIME. We have always had the quote from W.D. Gann as the banner on this newsletter, “Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
As I have pointed out before, TIME can be measured in many ways. Sometimes I measure in trading days and sometimes it is in calendar days whilst other times I am measuring Fibonacci ratios of previous waves in time to give us projections for possible dates for change of direction.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Gold Follows Crude Oil Lower, ECB Warns Inflation Won't Fall in an Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell back at lunchtime in London on Thursday, slipping 0.7% towards this week's low of $955 per ounce as Western stock markets continued to rally on falling oil prices.The price of crude oil has now dropped $12 from Tuesday's high above $146 a barrel.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Invest in Gold and Silver as Protect from US Economic Catastrophe / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Our nation may be on the cusp of economic catastrophe — call it a panic, a meltdown, an implosion; I don't care what you call it. But it's bad. And it's coming straight at you like a runaway bus.
In times of crisis, people naturally gravitate toward gold, because it's the one investment that can hold its value when the fertilizer hits the fan.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Gold Hedge Against Credit Crisis Risks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD BULLION gave back an overnight rally of 0.8% late-morning in London on Wednesday, recording an AM Fix of $974 per ounce as European stock markets tumbled for the seventh time in 11 sessions.The FTSE index of UK blue-chips sank 1.4%, while crude oil held near $136 per barrel, down almost $10 from Tuesday's near-record high.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Greenspan Backs Gold as World Currency / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $977.10, up $5.00 and silver was down to $18.92, down 27 cents. Gold fell in Asia before rising in early European trading.Gold rallied strongly in early trading yesterday on higher oil, a lower dollar and increasing macroeconomic and systemic risk prior to the sharp fall in oil prices (some $10 in a short period of time ) which led to a selloff in precious metals. Despite the sharp selloff in oil, gold again remained resilient and finished some 0.5% higher in New York. The sharp fall in the oil price was attributed to margin calls due to equity losses and to fears of demand destruction due to the slowing U.S. and international economies.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The Messiah & the P.O.W. & Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Vaughn
Well, what's gold doing right now? There are still very few who take the present financial situation serious enough to act on it. I believe gold hit 500 in 2005 and over 700 in 2006. Today it is well above 900. Anyone care out there?
A couple of years ago I was sitting in the barber's chair and chatting away. Yes, a real barber and not a “hair stylist.” Any way, right when a break came in my chatter the barber looked at me and said “too much information!” I guess the point is sometimes we say too much when we ought to keep our mouth shut. Last week I made a sarcastic remark about presidential elect Obama. What amazed me was how many folk do not recognize sarcastic humor when they hear it. And yes I am not afraid to say that I am not a supporter of Obama, but I still enjoy talking about the man because I find his rise to power amazing. Anyway, so much for that.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Crude Oil Parabolic Move Driven by Inflation Hedging that Could Unwind / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Having turned bearish on crude oil during the run up to above $146, and without repeating recent analysis that in summary had an initial target for a decline to $135 and a secondary target of $110 on break of $135 amidst a background of a possible spike higher following an attack on Iran, which I concluded as a low probability event of less than 20%.
What is of critical importance is to remind oil investors waiting for a parabolic rise, that we are already well into a parabolic move in crude oil. Therefore waiting for a move to between $200 and $300 would be in addition to the existing parabolic move from $50 to $147 just a day ago.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Gold Stocks Soar as the Bears are on the Loose in Goldilocks Economy Country / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Mama, Papa, and Baby Bear are back from their walk in the woods. They find the goldilocks economy sitting on their gold stocks and unceremoniously decide to eat her. End of story.
The bears are on the loose in goldilocks country, the place where fairy tales of a “new economy” were once sold to unsuspecting investors. As usual, stories change, depending on whoever gets to live to tell them. Alas, Goldilocks will not be among those.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Crude Oil and the 6 Year Cycle as Speculator Sentiment Reaches Extreme Highs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Clif_Droke
In previous commentaries we took a close look at the attributes of the 6-year cycle, which is bottoming this summer. The 6-year cycle is a component of the famous 120-year Kress Cycle and when it bottoms it tends to have a pronounced effect on stock prices and often the economy.
Right now the 6-year cycle is the paramount consideration trumping all other factors in the financial markets, whether it be the credit crisis, rising food and fuel costs or anything else. For every cause must have an effect and when it comes to the markets it's the cycles that are the chief cause behind the effects we're seeing.
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