Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Soft Commodities Price Trends / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices having peaked, we keep hearing a question that demonstrates the uninformed minds of many strategists and talking heads in the business media. That question is, “Have commodity prices peaked?” Again, commodities is not a homogeneous asset class. Comprising it are actually three separate and distinct commodity groups. Energy, minerals, and Agri-Food are the three major genus of the family referred to as commodities. Each is driven by different and unique factors. Each will have a individualistic investment cycle that will drive prices and returns. Falling oil prices may tangentially influence some Agri-Food prices, but do not dominate them. However, the greater impact of lower oil price may be the reduction in costs and improved profitability.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Financial Sector in Crisis as Gold Stocks Set to Go Ballistic / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Petch
Right now, those holding financial stocks can be viewed as a frog in a pot of boiling water. As long as the water does not boil, the frog is safe…but mark my words, before the year closes out, the water will boil.
Trying to have a realistic and “contrary view” when someone is directly involved in a particular market is extremely difficult, especially when being stuck in the pot. This will apply to those in the commodity market within 3-4 years, so everyone involved will have to try and have a level head. As gold bugs, we are trying to stick are toes into the water but are repelled by the heat. It will be important to make sure all participants are carrying a thermometer in their pocket to realize when the markets become overheated to a near boiling point, causing everything to spill over.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Gold Rises as Stock Markets Fall on Poor US Earnings / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD rose sharply in London on Tuesday, touching a four-session high of $975 per ounce as European stock markets fell hard.Crude oil held just above $130 per barrel as Tropical Storm Dolly passed by the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico . The US Dollar bounced from a one-week low vs. the Euro and traded at $2.00 to the British Pound.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Gold Forecasts Revised Upwards to $1200 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $963.40, up $7.00 and silver was up 25 cents to 18.37. Gold traded sideways to slightly up in Asia before rising in early European trading by nearly 1%.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The Insanity of Rising Crude Oil AND Gold Prices / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Brian_Bloom
One characteristic of the charts is that they show patterns which demand attention, regardless of any preconceptions or prejudices one might have.
I have been writing fairly extensively recently about a psychological phenomenon known as “cognitive dissonance” which – broadly speaking – means that a healthy mind cannot comfortably hold two conflicting thoughts simultaneously. Typically what happens if one has a fairly well entrenched view on any subject, and a piece of conflicting evidence manifests, is that one either rejects the new evidence as being “obviously” (?) wrong, refuses to acknowledge its existence, or rationalises it away as being unimportant.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Gold Bullion and Stocks Flashing Seasonal Buy Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Gold and Silver Stocks of the HUI index, past and present, as well as future expectations. This essay looks at the seasonal lows for the HUI index, and examines the rise that followed this low, for the past 9 cycles (1999 – 2008). This study should give us a good idea for future expectations, regarding the remainder of 2008. “As the HUI goes, so goes the gold price”. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Primer in Mining Equity Market Investments / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: John_Lee
In the past paper, we talked about the vast performance disparity among metals, and offered our take on which metals to buy (Gold, Zinc) and which to avoid (Copper) going forward.
Not all metals are created equal - metals review: http://new.goldmau.com/article.php?id=224 In this paper, we will provide the rationale behind mining equity investment, how to choose between metals futures or metals miners, and conclude with which mining sectors to buy and which to avoid.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Gold Turns Bullish on Surging Global Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD rose in London on Monday morning, undoing most of last week's 1% loss to trade above $963 per ounce as the New York opening approached.Crude oil bounced from a seven-week low beneath $129 per barrel after US forecasters put a 29% chance on Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength as it enters the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico .
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Both Inflation or Deflation Point to Recession, Gold Outperforms Gold Stocks During Bear Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $956.40, down $12.70 and silver fell 53 cents to 18.12. Gold traded sideways to slightly up in Asia before rising in early European trading by nearly 1%.
Despite the very sharp fall in oil prices and other commodities last week, gold only fell by 0.2%. Silver was down by 3%. August Crude fell by more than 11% - it fell $16.34 from over $145 to $128.74. And Prudent Bear's Doug Noland points out that August Gasoline sank 11.5% (up 27.8% y-t-d), and August Natural Gas dropped 10.2% (up 42.9% y-t-d). September Copper declined 1.9%. September Wheat fell 3.2% and August Corn sank 11.8%. The CRB index was hit for 7.4% (up 19.1% y-t-d). The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) sank 9.5% (up 30.5% y-t-d and 55% y-o-y).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Gold Projects Bullish Trend to $1215 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold has basically been on a roll for over a month, maybe it's time for a little rest. At this point it looks like no more than a rest but let's go through the routine.
GOLD : LONG TERM - I've been away for a few weeks so this week is sort of a “catch-up” week. The long term P&F Chart shows an upside break-out with a projection to the $1215 level. That would put us into new all time high territory and could cause the price to continue towards that long held, very long term, projection to the $1600 mark.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Gold Slips as US Dollar Bounces, Soros Buying Gold Shorting Crude Oil / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD dropped 1.3% at lunchtime in London on Friday, sliding into the US open – and heading for its first weekly loss in five – as world stock markets ticked higher.The US Dollar rose on the forex market. Crude oil futures jumped 2.1% – "a dead cat bounce," according to one trader – after suffering their worst drop since Dec. 2004 so far this week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
George Soros Buying Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $957.00, down $4.00. Gold traded sideways rose in Asia before rising in early European trading and then falling again and is now down 0.15% for the day.Equity markets have bounced on what is likely to be another short term correction on massive short covering. Poor earnings from Google, Microsoft, Merrill and now Citigroup this morning should result in gold remaining well bid and support is at $950.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Crude Oil Breaks Below Major Support as Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude Oil confirmed its forecast downtrend by decidedly breaking below support of $135. The Market Oracle forecast as of 4th of July 2008 and at a price of $146, has been for an initial downtrend to support of $135, on break of which crude oil would target a trend towards major support at $110.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Gold More Weakness Ahead? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's notice that the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) peaked on Tuesday at 97.50 at the top of its June-July price channel, and in the past 48 hours or so has traversed the channel to test its lower support line just above 93.50, which so far has contained the decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Commodity Market Forecasts for Soft's, Agricultural's and Livestock / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert
commodity
forecasting services until noon Wednesday,
July 23.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Traders Only– Prepare to SELL GOLD / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ronald_Rosen
As many of you know, I use many different methods to achieve my trading signals but one of the most important is the measurement of TIME. We have always had the quote from W.D. Gann as the banner on this newsletter, “Time is more important than price; when time is up price will reverse.”
As I have pointed out before, TIME can be measured in many ways. Sometimes I measure in trading days and sometimes it is in calendar days whilst other times I am measuring Fibonacci ratios of previous waves in time to give us projections for possible dates for change of direction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Gold Follows Crude Oil Lower, ECB Warns Inflation Won't Fall in an Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell back at lunchtime in London on Thursday, slipping 0.7% towards this week's low of $955 per ounce as Western stock markets continued to rally on falling oil prices.The price of crude oil has now dropped $12 from Tuesday's high above $146 a barrel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Invest in Gold and Silver as Protect from US Economic Catastrophe / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Our nation may be on the cusp of economic catastrophe — call it a panic, a meltdown, an implosion; I don't care what you call it. But it's bad. And it's coming straight at you like a runaway bus.
In times of crisis, people naturally gravitate toward gold, because it's the one investment that can hold its value when the fertilizer hits the fan.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Gold Hedge Against Credit Crisis Risks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF GOLD BULLION gave back an overnight rally of 0.8% late-morning in London on Wednesday, recording an AM Fix of $974 per ounce as European stock markets tumbled for the seventh time in 11 sessions.The FTSE index of UK blue-chips sank 1.4%, while crude oil held near $136 per barrel, down almost $10 from Tuesday's near-record high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Greenspan Backs Gold as World Currency / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $977.10, up $5.00 and silver was down to $18.92, down 27 cents. Gold fell in Asia before rising in early European trading.Gold rallied strongly in early trading yesterday on higher oil, a lower dollar and increasing macroeconomic and systemic risk prior to the sharp fall in oil prices (some $10 in a short period of time ) which led to a selloff in precious metals. Despite the sharp selloff in oil, gold again remained resilient and finished some 0.5% higher in New York. The sharp fall in the oil price was attributed to margin calls due to equity losses and to fears of demand destruction due to the slowing U.S. and international economies.
Read full article... Read full article...