Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Commodities & Gold Stocks: Decennial Pattern Comparison with Nasdaq / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Kurt_Kasun
In early April I wrote a commentary titled “ Commodity Boom? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! ” in which I hypothesized that commodities would maintain investment leadership through the end of the decade and the rally would end in spectacular fashion in early 2010. This would be consistent with a “decennial pattern” of leadership which began in the 1970s with each decade's winner roughly doubling the stupendous gains of the prior decade's winner. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Commodities Asset Classes: Energy, Minerals and Agri-Foods / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Ever since paper oil prices broke, journalists around the world have been brutally attacking keyboards in a rush to declare the end to investing in commodities. Business media anchors keep asking the same question, “Are commodities done?” While teaching a journalist is the equivalent of attempting to train a cat, we continue to remind all of one simple message. Commodities is not a homogeneous asset class. It is comprised of three distinct groups, as listed below.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Gold Mining Stocks GDX ETF Decline Incomplete / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Despite the 40% decline in the Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (AMEX: GDX) since March, the gold miners ETF does not exhibit the pattern of completion and likely still will hit one or both of my optimal lower targets derived off of the massive top formation we see on the enclosed daily chart. Let's expect a bounce from the vicinity of 33.50, but thereafter another loop to lower lows into the 30.00-28.00 area to complete the Jul-Aug (Sept?) decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Gold Rally Stalls Despite Record 27-Year Inflation in US and Germany / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES slipped once again after recovering half of a 2.3% overnight drop early in London on Tuesday, stalling as both the US and Germany reported a sharp jump in producer-price inflation.
Asian stock markets closed at a two-year low, and palladium traded in Tokyo fell to its lowest level since June 2006.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Technical Analysis of US Dollar and AMEX Gold BUGS Index / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Petch
This editorial focuses primarily on the US Dollar Index, with respect to how recent market actions have affected the present consolidation pattern underway since March 2008. The very last chart focuses on the HUI and how the sharp decline nullified the long-term count I was following due to the 0-II trend line being broken. One thing I have learned over the years is that fundamental analysis must be married to technical analysis. It is wrong for someone to assume that Elliott Wave patterns are “the be all end all”…they are a technical tool used to predict future market action based upon the surrounding wave structure. Glenn Neely's pattern base is extremely complicated, which makes tracking patterns even that more difficult. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Don't Believe the Gold and Silver "Bubble" Burst Hype! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $ 800.50, up $14.50 and silver was up 33 cents to $13.19 . Both gold and silver have again fallen in European trading . Gold i s trading at $ 7 86 .00/7 86 .40 per ounce (10.30GMT).Gold rebounded from very oversold levels yesterday but market weakness has resumed overnight in Asia and early in London as the dollar has continued to rally (reaching a 6 month high at 1.4631 to the euro) . Speculative interest in the precious metals has fallen dramatically as seen in the recent CFTC data and this usually presages a rally in the precious metals.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Gold Summer COLLAPSE Could Turn Into Autumn Seasonal BOOM / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Might the seasonal shape of the gold price turn this summer's collapse into an autumnal boom...?"
THE SHARP DROP in world gold prices starting in late July knocked the cost of physical metal more than 20% off its record top of mid-March at last week's low point.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
US Dollar and Gold Price Market Manipulation? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Shedlock
In his August 13th Commentary Steve Saville gave his thoughts on the US Dollar, gold, and currency manipulation. Steve gave me permission to repeat that letter in entirety. Before I post Steve's thoughts, I need to state upfront that Steve's thoughts are similar to recent posts of mine that have stirred up quite a controversy. In case you missed them, here are my thoughts, in sequence.
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Profit from Falling Gold Price by Trading DZZ Leveraged ETN / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Chris_Vermeulen
DZZ Double Gold ETN is a relatively new way to take advantage of gold price action. This gold fund provides double the movement that the GLD ETF or the price of gold does, providing bigger opportunities in the gold sector. I have just recently started to use DZZ ETN for trading and have found it to be very useful, which you will see in the charts below.
A Couple of Benefits of the New DZZ Gold ETN
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Gold Continues to Fall Despite Strong Seasonal Tendencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back a sharp 2% rally early in London on Monday, falling towards $790 per ounce as the US Dollar held flat on the currency markets.Crude oil ticked up 25¢ to trade above $114 per barrel as Tropical Storm Fay threatened rigs in the Gulf of Mexico .
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Monday, August 18, 2008
Gold and Silver Extremely Oversold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $ 786.00, down $ 22.30 and silver was down $1.42 cents to $12.81 . Both rallied strongly on the open in Asia but have given up some of their gains in European trading . Gold i s trading at $ 793.00/793.40 per ounce (1230 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Global Energy Sector Investing / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: Although consumers and businesses have gotten a bit of a reprieve at the gas pump as of late, the escalation in oil prices we've seen over the past year has led to some major changes in overall consumer behavior. Many car-owners have dumped their gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs at the nearest used-car lot and used the proceeds to buy some gas-sipping rides. Companies with large distribution networks have redesigned their shipping schedules, crafting more efficient routes that accommodated larger truckloads. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Bye Bye to the Precious Metals Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“The face of the coin has been debased as fast as its value. First the faces of gods were on the coins. Then the faces of kings. Then of presidents. Today it's only paper. The miracle is that you can still buy things with it.”~Ian Fleming, From Russia With Love
If the recent meltdown in precious metals took you by surprise, you obviously haven't been reading this update. Since at least late 2007 this update has said the principal risk to precious metals was a dollar rally based on euro weakness. After calling the top in gold in March, targets in the low $800s and lower were immediately published. Since then, precious metals advances have been called a “sucker's rally”, and on June first I went as far as to suggest that gold could be “the short of the year.”
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Sunday, August 17, 2008
How Low Will Gold Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alex_Wallenwein
That's a silly question.
Gold doesn't go anywhere. What "goes" up or down are the dollar figures we have all been trained to attach to it - but we all know, for a fact, how illusory those are.
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Sunday, August 17, 2008
Gold and the Economy: Facts and Theories / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Brian_Bloom
When we understand “what” is happening (the facts) then we might have a stab at “why” it is happening (the theories). In turn, this might throw some light on what we might expect to unfold in the foreseeable future.
We live in a cynical world and from a cynical perspective it is noteworthy that all I am reading with regard to the gold price is theories.
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Sunday, August 17, 2008
Gold Breaks Long-term Bull Market Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Well I guess this past week will be remembered for both gold and silver, with silver declining twice as fast as gold. Stocks also took a bounding but they have been taking a bounding for some time now. What next? That's really the $64 question.
GOLD: LONG TERM
Here we are with that long term P&F chart. While surfing the ‘net I came across another analyst who uses a 2 unit reversal P&F chart for gold with $15 units (very rare). This analyst drew the trend line as one would normally draw on the normal bar charts, i.e. touching the lows of major reaction points. Although I have used this method on occasion, and it is a valid method of drawing a P&F trend line, I usually prefer the 45 degree lines for a variety of reasons. However, here is how the trend lines would have looked if drawn touching the lows. Not bad, eh!
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Gold and Silver Crushed by Unwinding US Dollar Shorts / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Shedlock
What's happening with gold should be no real surprise. Although I have stated many times that gold is money and gold should do well in deflation, and we are in deflation (see The Future Is Frugality and Implications of the Slowing Global Economy for the deflation case), in the initial stages of deflation, leverage in everything is reduced by force. There are thousands of hedge funds, pension plans, and individuals over-leveraged in a massive bet against the US dollar and US assets in general. Many themes of the past 7 years are now being unwound. And one would expect leverage to be forced out in deflation as credit simply dries up. I call this the great unwind.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
US Dollar Seismic Shift Hits Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Christopher_Laird
A month or so ago, we told subscribers that the USD appeared to be bottoming. Long term, the USD has big trouble on the horizon, but we mentioned the USD has 9 lives, even though the US is running terrible deficits, trade and fiscal.
The Euro had strengthened so much since 2002, and the USD took such a hit, that gold and commodities became hot sectors that attracted lots of money for years. Right now, we are witnessing a big chunk of that speculator/investor froth coming out of gold and commodities. Oil is still relatively resistant. The perception that the USD can recover in a meaningful way is now out.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
Review: Profit from the Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: David_Shvartsman
Are we nearing the end of the Oil Age? Is the end of a cheap fossil fuel era at hand? How will we make the transition from a world dependent on hydrocarbon energy to one powered by a mix of hydrocarbons and renewable energy, and can we profit from this coming shift?
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Gold Approaching Short-term Low / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The hourly pattern argues that in and around the 77.00 area, the downleg in the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) from its 7/15 high "achieved" the look of completion. If that is the case, then in the hours directly ahead the GLD should reverse sharply, fill today's gap-down open at 79.20, and close above the top of the gap to signal that a very significant near-term low has been established. Beyond the gap, the GLD must hurlde and sustain 82.00 to confirm a more substantial upside reversal.Read full article... Read full article...