Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 05, 2008
Gold Fails to Hold Above $800 in the Face of US Dollar Strength / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES struggled below $800 per ounce in Asia and London on Friday, heading towards a 5% loss for the week as the US Dollar rose yet again versus everything else except Treasury bonds.Crude oil dipped towards $106 per barrel, while the Australian Dollar – a key "commodity currency" – hit new 12-month lows.
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Friday, September 05, 2008
Commodities Correction Continues into September / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• U.S. dollar bounce for four to six weeks expected; target of $0.80 to $0.81
• Broad consolidation for commodities lengthens; business cycle suggests crest is developing
• Gold weakness expected until late September; $725 to $740 is the target
• Oil on support at $105; $120-to-$125 target
• Positive seasonality begins for natural gas
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Junior Mining Investing, Gold Stocks Divergence Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Dudley_Baker
Few investors can stand up to the fortitude of an investor in the junior mining sector. Basically, if you did not sell everything in May 2006, then your portfolio is probably under water. The drawn downs in the junior's has been beyond belief. Most of the shares are down 50% or more from the May 2006 highs and many are off 70%, 80% and even 90%.
Are investors insane to stay with these ‘investments' or should we be looking elsewhere?
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Stocks Bull Market and Crash Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Neil_Charnock
This is Part 2 - Big Bang – big bang for your buck – isn't that what investors want? Yes we all want the ten bagger or better. But where is one going to come from next. As I said in the first article – Big Bang Part 1. “Haven't the easy pickings already been taken this far into the PM Bull? After all the low hanging fruit has been taken hasn't it? You can see that from the charts on the HUI and the XAU can't you? That is not to say these magnificent indices will not go higher but I am talking about the easy pickings and leverage.” Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Bull Market to be Boosted by Paralysed Central Banks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back half of a 1.6% rally at lunchtime in London on Thursday, trading at $809 per ounce as crude oil prices rose and global stock markets fell once again.Asian-Pacific equities slid for the fourth day running, while German stocks stood 0.8% lower after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept Eurozone interest rates on hold at 4.25%.
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Range Trades Pending Bull Market Resumption / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was flat in New York yesterday despite the increasingly bullish macro environment. Gold closed at $803.40 down $1.20 and silver closed at $12.92 down 12 cents.
Gold rose in early trading in London but has subsequently given up some of the gains as the dollar has rallied again (1.4456 to the EUR).
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Systemic Distrust and GATA Gold Conspiracy Hype / Commodities / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Following is a well written email from "CP" on reasons why someone might be inclined to believe in various conspiracy theories. Let's take a look at what "CP" has to say. From CP:
I always enjoy your writing and am a subscriber to someone I know you respect, and that is Steve Saville. He too does not see any collusion in the markets.
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
The Real Big Storm About to Hit the United States is Cantarell / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Broderick writes: The oil industry along the Louisiana coast got off lightly from Hurricane Gustav. While 1.3 million barrels of oil and seven billion cubic feet of natural gas per day stopped pumping temporarily, most of the oil infrastructure escaped harm. And oil prices plummeted on that good news.
However, there's a much worse problem threatening oil production around the Gulf of Mexico ...
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Stocks Developing a Double Bottom Pattern / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Petch
Tumultuous market conditions have taken their toll on the commodity sector and caused a change in the Elliott Wave count of the HUI as mentioned in the prior Internet update. The main crux of the problem has been leveraged individuals and funds that were forced to liquidate positions, thereby triggering stops all the way down causing increased liquidation. It is probably a safe bet that a significant portion of the tax-loss selling for 2008 has already occurred, but as analysis presented below suggests, trading opportunities exist over the next 4-6 months before the HUI completes the present consolidation pattern. I stress that 4-6 months is the minimum time frame for the HUI correction to complete, but it could easily extend until May-July 2009 (depending upon how long the consolidation pattern in the USD takes as mentioned in the last Internet update). Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Cooling Global Economy Ensures Commodity Correction to Continue / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
The recent rise of the U.S. dollar has triggered the peak in the commodity market and likely halted any further advances for this index during the 2006-2010 market cycle. As energy and precious metals are normally the last sectors to crest during a market cycle, their current weakness signals the start of a broader correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Gold Undergoing New Bearish Consolidation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The near-term pattern and technical set-up earlier this morning in spot gold -- which corresponds to the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) for ETF traders -- pointed to an upside thrust to test key near-term resistance at $810.65 concurrent with a test of key near-term euro/$ resistance at 1.4450/80. While the euro did rally a touch above 1.4480, the rally did not sustain, which helped to thwart the rally attempt in spot gold, which failed to claw its way above $810.00. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
China and India Demand to Fuel Agri-Foods Bull Market / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
If one listens to the popular business media, commodities are dead. When paper oil was trading at $147, the sky was the limit. Now, all is going down. Perhaps they are little more than trend followers? What we really need to know is if the world is awash in grains. Truth is, that view does not in any way describe the global situation. The world has entered an era, ten years or more remaining, when Agri-Food will be in short supply. Whether China grows at 11+% or 9% does not change the conclusion.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Strong US Dollar Blasts Gold to Below $800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE of physical gold sank below yesterday's two-week low early in London on Wednesday, dropping to $790 before bouncing to $801 an ounce as Western stock markets fell sharply.US Treasuries rose, pushing real yields after inflation almost 2% into the red on the 10-year bond, while the Euro slipped below $1.44 on the currency markets – a fresh six-month low.
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Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Gold Slide Continues Despite Soaring Inflation and Unprecedented Demand / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold fell in early trading in London on further falls in oil prices ($108.24 a barrel - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - OCT08) and on the continuing rally in the dollar (reached 1.4386 to the Euro) but gold has recovered some of its early losses.
Concerns regarding the outlook for corporate profits internationally and for the health of the global economy is weighing on stock markets and should lead to safe haven demand for gold as it did in the first year of the credit crisis.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
China Demand WIll Continue to Drive Commodities Bull Market / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: When I am in Asia, I'll talk to anyone I think can help me find the next home run stock. I have often learned a great deal by talking to bellmen, taxi drivers, sales clerks, or the lone diner at the table next to me. And some of the most useful information I've ever gathered comes when (and where) I least expect it.
The latest example of this came during my recent trip to Beijing, where I spent a Sunday walking the Mutinayu section of the Great Wall of China.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Gold Used as Political Weapon Could See Bounce Back above $900 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Captain_Hook
Gold is a political metal, where to this day its primary movements are still governed more by politics than any other factor taken in the proper light. You see it's all about the dollar ($), and it's role as global hegemony, where post World War II its imposition as the world's reserve currency was in effect de facto / soft colonialism and economic domination. So, gold's rise since 2001 is actually the measure of global de-colonization in effect, with recent actions taken by Russia in Georgia an acceleration of the trend. That's right, and while Russia may not have the ‘superpower' status it was credited with up until the Union's fall, which accelerated with the dismantling of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it has been re-organized under Putin into a regional power of strategic (perhaps supreme with its energy related stranglehold on the rest of Europe) importance, both economically and militarily once again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Gold Follows Crudes Slide Lower / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
In light Labour Day trading gold fell yesterday as Hurricane Gustav did not impact the Gulf of Mexico as severely as had been expected.
Gold has continued to fall in trading in London as oil prices have continued their recent slide and are down nearly 5% to near $105 a barrel (Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - OCT08) and the dollar has risen to a 7 month high against the euro (below $1.45) and the US dollar index has risen to a 10 month high.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Gold Targetting ABC Trend to $900 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“In Elliott wave terms, last week's rally could very well have been a 4 of C consolidation before the final lows. Both gold and silver failed to take out a key support/resistance level just above Friday's closing levels. Neither managed to have their rallies confirmed by MACD, which actually widened negatively in both cases. And, whereas gold is poised for a bearish crossover over the 50-week sma over the 5-, silver has already done it. Both gold and silver remain well below their 5-week moving averages. If this is the beginning of a new leg to the bull market, there's still lots of work to do before we have anything approaching confirmation. ~ Precious Points: One More Low to Go? August 23, 2008Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
Gold in a Bull or Bear Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Brian_Bloom
First off, let me declare that I am not a congenital bear on gold. Fundamentally, I am convinced that gold is the most valuable commodity on the planet. I just happen to believe that it never was nor ever will be a currency. I hold this belief because the evidence seems to me to point to this conclusion, not because I have some deep seated drive to challenge the combined views of the gold community. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
Gold and Oil Slump as Hurricane Gustav Weakens / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD slipped out of a tight 0.5% range lunchtime in London on Monday, moving below last week's close at $831 per ounce as world stock markets fell and bond prices rose.Crude oil slid back to $114 a barrel as Hurricane Gustav moved towards Louisiana , closing every oil-rig in the Gulf of Mexico but not gaining strength as it approached a near-deserted New Orleans .
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