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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Crude Oil Spikes to New High on Emerging Markets Demand- Part 1 of 2 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe oil price has in the past few years been a major influence on the gold price and quite rightly too. Both represent an unalterable definer of power and value. But of late the gold price has lagged the oil price in its relationship with oil. We see this as a temporary situation, which will persist until the ‘big' global picture forces itself onto the realities of our daily life in our local communities.

Once this happens we believe that the gold and silver price will catch up and reassert itself, not as a ‘gold standard' [after all governments will manage such a system as it currently does paper currencies] but as a measure of value and power in the monetary system [more on that in future articles]. So in this piece we look at the oil crisis, which is not fully appreciated by its audience, staring us in the face.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Gold's Corrective Rally Continues / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The rally off of the May 2 low at 83.06 in the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has recovered to 90.78 so far, and appears to have more in it that should propel prices towards 92.00/60 prior to completion. If that proves to be the case, then my work will argue that an "intervening" recovery rally ended, which separates two larger downlegs within an intermediate-term corrective process…which will point to another decline in the GLD that retests the May low at 83.06.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Crude Oil Prices Set to Double and Double Again! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldman Sachs recently forecasted that oil would be at $141 a barrel by the end of the year, and rising to $200 a barrel in the not too distant future. I have seen other forecasts calling for oil to slip significantly under $100 a barrel before starting yet another bull market.

I have written for years that we are not going to run out of oil or energy, just cheap oil. I was just in South Africa, where much of their gas and diesel comes from coal gasification. At one time this was an expensive way to make gas, and South Africans had to pay more for their gas than the rest of the world. Now, it is getting close to "par" to the cost of gas in the US, and is cheaper than gas in Europe.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Gold Steadies Above $900 as Bond Market Igores Rising Inflation Fears / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE SPOT PRICE of physical Gold bullion moved sideways around $907 per ounce in London on Tuesday after what Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong called "a sluggish morning session with early selling."

The AM Fix in London rose 50¢ from Monday's afternoon price to $907 per ounce.
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Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Gold Firms on UN Warning of Global Stagflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold and silver continued their recent move up yesterday prior to a slight sell off. They have traded sideways to slightly up in Asia and early trade in Europe. Since last Thursday gold had soared by more than 5% and thus profit taking was to be expected. Similarly year to date gold is up nearly 9% (unlike most equity markets) and in the last 12 months gold is up 37% and thus corrections are healthy and to be expected.

Gold may need to consolidate between $885 and $915 before the next leg up in the bull market.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Another Shaft in the Mining Business / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Expect the unexpected and you'll end up in therapy, on drugs or enlightened.

For those aware of the impending collapse of debt-based paper money assets, the fact that the majority still have no idea about the magnitude of the approaching danger is unbelievable. What is also unbelievable are the positions some of those people hold.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Oil Crisis Stagflation Spiral Special / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCrude oil continued to hit its new all time high of $128 today by closing above $127 for the first time, up 96% in 12 months and 165% in 3 years. The impact of the price hike is both inflationary and deflationary at the same time. Inflationary as oil is the life blood of the functioning of global economies and thus resulting in across the board price hikes. Deflationary impacts as the price hike acts as a tax on the consumer from fuel pumps to food stores thus leaving less money in the hands of the consumer to pay for the necessities let alone for luxuries.

This is creating a spiraling stagflationary environment, as on its own the western economies could have coped with the oil crisis, but having been hit with the triple whammy of deflating housing markets that itself triggered the bursting of the credit bubble that continues to deepen as banks fail to report the true extent of the crisis on the interbank LIBOR market.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2008

Gold Seasonal Trend Analysis Points to Bargain Hunting Prices Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the most intriguing patterns in the current bull market in gold has to do with the annual buying opportunity which crops up in the depths of the summer doldrums.

As depicted in the graph below, the end of a 20-yr bear market in gold was marked in 1999, and this new bull market was birthed in 2001.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2008

Natural Gas Failing to Bounce off Support Suggests Trend Reversal / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Interesting situation is developing in the UNG because the price structure pressed from last week's failed highs in and around 56.30 right to a test of the March- May support line at 53.00, which thus far has contained any further weakness. HOWEVER, let's notice that each time prices neared the channel support line, they reversed to the upside SHARPLY- to start a new upleg. So far, THIS TOUCH OF THE SUPPORT LINE HAS ELICITED A VERY MODERATE UPSIDE RESPONSE SO FAR, which could be indicative of an exhausted market, or a just a delayed response.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2008

Central Bankers Art of Misdirection  / Commodities / Market Manipulation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCentral planers and Wall Street prestidigitators are getting better at having people concentrate on the wrong things at the wrong times in my opinion. In terms of present circumstances are concerned, we are referring to their ability to have the street focused on a manufactured rally in the dollar ($), while the effects of their previous inflation efforts run rampant throughout commodity markets, all the while having no material impact on improving the credit crisis, which is of course justification for printing the copious amounts of fiat currency they enjoy so much. What's worse, this latest round of misdirection, a technique used by magicians in case you are unaware, will likely only make the effects of rapid monetary inflation worse over time as more will be needed, despite present claims that the worst of the crisis is over , and that it's onward and upwards from here.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2008

Gold Prices Jump on Weakening US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

PHYSICAL GOLD BULLION prices rose 1.2% in Asian and early London trade on Monday, reaching a four-week high on what analysts could only call "investment fund buying" in the absence of specific news or financial events.

Nearing the US open above $912 per ounce, Gold rose as Far Eastern equity markets ended the day 0.5% higher on average.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2008

Gold Surges on Inflation Hedge and Safe haven Buying / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold was up $20 to $898.40 on Friday and silver was up 28 cents to $16.90. Gold started the week with the rally continuing in Asia and has risen in early trading in Europe to over $910 per ounce.

Oil has weakened slightly but the dollar has also weakened slightly and this likely contributed to gold's rally this morning.

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Commodities

Monday, May 19, 2008

Energy Sector: Crude Oil Demand from China , India , Rockets Upward / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Joseph_Dancy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong term supply and demand trends continue to keep energy prices elevated. The easiest to locate and cheapest oil to produce on the global scale has been for the most part found. Many of the major older fields are in decline. New production tends to be more expensive to develop, and access to potential fields is increasingly restricted by nationalistic concerns as governments try to control resources to benefit their own citizens. In many areas a shortfall of drilling and production equipment exists.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Gold Suckers Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Joe_Nicholson

“B waves can extend considerably and even appear impulsive, and … short term traders may very well try to continue their luck on the long side this week. We seem to have completed the minimum requirements for a 3-wave correction, but as shown in the chart, may need to see the wave subdivide further as drama in the currency and credit markets plays out. ~ Precious Points: Fool's Gold, May 10, 2008

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Commodities

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Silver Major Uptrend Breakout Alert / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Clive_Maund

The technical condition of silver has continued to improve since the last bullish Silver Market update was posted a week ago. This is because it has held above the strong support in the $16 - $16.50 area, and by virtue of moving sideways during last week, it has broken out upside from the bullish Falling Wedge so that it is now in position to take off immediately, and is likely to, especially given that gold has started to lift off, rising strongly on Thursday on Friday.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Gold Triggers Short-term Bullish Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Merv_Burak

Friday looked like a break away but there is still some rough territory ahead to overcome. The $950/$960 area may be formidable.

GOLD : LONG TERM
The long term P&F chart is showing the direction of movement now on the up side but still some distance from reversing the P&F bear signal. That would need a move to the $960 level and then it would project only to the previous high for a mild move. My suspicions are that there will be more up and down volatility before any new reversal comes about. But time will tell, one should not be so set in one's view that one cannot change when the activity warrants.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Gold Price Fuse has been Lit and the Rocket is Rising! / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Peter_Degraaf

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week I wrote an article titled: “The Fuse Has Been Lit!” As a result of the article I received a number of E-mails from unbelievers.

It's amazing how many people out there still do not understand the basic bullish fundamentals of the gold market. Even a large number of analysts are providing their clients with erroneous advice, by telling them to ‘wait for a bottom'. Many of these clients could well be facing the problem of looking back ruefully at the bottom, long after it is in place.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Grain Markets Panic Buying, Export Controls, and Food Riots / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Joseph_Dancy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong term global demand and supply trends in the agricultural sector remain very favorable for investors. New and expanding biofuel facilities, growing global population, and the upgrading of diets in many Asian countries continues to increase demand for grains at a rapid pace.

Supply growth is constrained by export controls recently implemented by many large grain producing countries, drought in several producing regions, and the lack of readily available acreage suitable for expanding farming operations. Western agriculture methods are also incredibly energy intensive, which increases the cost of expanding supplies. The following developments occurred in the sector last month:

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Commodities

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Gold and GDX ETF Breaks Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Gold prices and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) are higher this session in sympathy with the surge in energy prices. As of this moment, the price structure has broken above its prior rally peak at 46.68 on 5/09 as well as its March-May down trendline, which triggers upside follow-through to 48.00/30 next.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Gold Pushes Higher on Massive Government Mortgage Backed Junk Bond Swaps / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

PHYSICAL GOLD BULLION prices rose sharply in London on Friday, gaining 1.1% to reach a three-week high of $894 per ounce as European stock markets pushed higher and US Treasury bonds slipped.

Crude oil regained more than 1.2% to trade above $125.60 per barrel.

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