Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Has SIlver 50% Price Crash Hit Bottom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
It is not for nothing that silver is called "poor man's gold" for when the going gets tough it's the poor who disappear first under the wheels of the rich man's carriage. Thus, while the commodities rout has resulted in gold dropping by about a quarter from its highs, silver has plunged by a staggering 50%. In the last update we thought it had bottomed at about $12.30 as it was so oversold, but after a brief recovery rally it fell even further to an intraday low at about $10.20 on Thursday, hammered lower by continued dollar strength. Now, however, with signs that gold has hit bottom, or is about to, and good reasons to believe that the dollar is topping out, as set out in the Gold Market update, the savage decline in silver looks to have about run its course. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Gold Extremely Oversold Suggests Imminent Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
A confluence of factors suggests that we have just seen the bottom in gold and silver, or if not that the bottom is very close. The last update called the bottom too early as renewed dollar strength resulted in another downleg in the metals. After the recent heavy losses it may come as something of a surprise to many that the long-term chart for gold still looks positive, with the drop looking like a fairly normal correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Agri-Foods the Strategic Long-term Investment / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
What happens when bad weather and a structural uptrend come together? The aftermath of Hurricane Ike may give us some insight. This week's chart is of global rice stocks. Rice, as we know, is an important food in many countries around the world. While rice stocks have improved, current stocks are equal to little more than two months of global consumption.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Gasoline Shortages And Higher Prices Expected / Commodities / Gas - Petrol
By: Mike_Shedlock
There is an excellent discussion of the Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage on The Oil Drum. I encourage everyone to take a look. The comments are good too. Here are a few snips.Insight 4. It is likely that we will have product shortages for at least the next three to four weeks, because of shut in refinery capacity and reduced refinery runs.
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Saturday, September 13, 2008
Gold Boxed-in Wating for Bullish or Bearish Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Tuesday took all of the steam out of the two week rally but then that was it. The rest of the week was basically a lateral drift. More downside or continued upside? Let's see.
GOLD : LONG TERM - The week's activity still did nothing for the long term. The P&F chart continues to be bearish and the indicators are all in the negative zone. On the long term the rating remains BEARISH until some more significant market action takes place.
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Saturday, September 13, 2008
When the Gold's all Gone, the Market will go Nuts! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: The_Gold_Report
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Asset Management and renowned industry expert, has researched the sector for 30 years. He expresses disbelief as he explains today's irrational pricing in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report . He attributes gold's alarming distress to "violent intervention by the paper players." But he's convinced they can only hold prices down for so long and forecasts four-digit gold by January 2009. Juniors present the best opportunity to leverage the coming gold price explosion and he shares his favorite names. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Commodities and Oil Bull Markets Crushed / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
After starting to recover a bit in mid-August, commodities have just been crushed in September. Selling is overwhelming and universal, shattering countless technical support lines. Investors' capital is being destroyed at a breathtaking rate. Fears are running very high and the financial media is gleefully declaring that “the commodities bubble has burst”.
Being heavily invested in this commodities bull myself, the intense selling in the last couple of weeks has indeed been painful. From the blizzard of e-mails I've received, it's apparent that even long-time investors are losing faith in this bull's longevity. As always during such a brutal hammering, capitulation is tempting. That's our natural human instinct when the markets move against us fast and hard.
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Friday, September 12, 2008
Gold Bounces on Building Treasury Bonds Deflation Trade / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES for physical metal rose steadily overnight in Asia and London on Friday, bouncing 2.8% from yesterday's 11-month low to touch $758 an ounce as world stock markets also ticked higher.Crude oil struggled above $102 per barrel despite Hurricane Ike strengthening as it heads for the oil-rich Texas coast.
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Friday, September 12, 2008
Gold Very Oversold, US Dollar Very Overbought / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was down again yesterday and fell to new 11 month lows at $742. Gold recovered in afterhours electronic trading and in Asian and early European trading today it has risen to over $755/oz. The dollar has fallen from recent highs against the euro of 1.3879 to less than 1.41 and oil has risen again on fears that Hurricane Ike may do more damage than expected to oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Crude Oil $200 a Barrel, What happened? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: INO
It's true, the rumors were circulating heavily when crude oil was trading at $145 a barrel that it was going to be hitting $200 a barrel in a matter of days or weeks at the very latest. Well, that never happened. Crude oil learned that gravity plays a part in every commodity market's life. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Gold $2,000 an Ounce What Happened? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: INO
To many it is quite surprising that gold is getting closer to 700 an ounce rather than the 2,000 many were calling for. When gold was trading at the 1,000 level many people were expecting this market to zoom to 2,000 an ounce. When we first suggested that gold had actually given us a sell signal we received numerous e-mails, many of which were not flattering and some were just downright ugly. "How could you short gold are you an imbecile" and that was one of the nicer emails.
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Friday, September 12, 2008
OPEC Died Decades Ago / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are considering an article entitled The Death Of OPEC .Saudi Arabia walked out on OPEC yesterday. It said it would not honor the cartel's production cut. It was tired of rants from Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and the well-dressed oil minister from Iran.
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Friday, September 12, 2008
Gold Price Manipulation or Deflationary Crash? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Richard_J_Greene
The relentless selling we have seen over the past month in precious metals was kicked off by the manipulative interventions occurring right around the time of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac implosions in mid-July. Unprecedented short selling by two major banks in the futures market along with waves of naked short selling of resource stocks pushed indices and stocks through technical support on charts. Yamana Gold, which is one of the most successful gold companies saw short interest rise 72% in the first two weeks of August (without counting all the naked shorts). There is no reason to short this stock; it has been a star performer. Many investors have given up and portfolio managers that haven't given up are now forced to sell due to redemptions. These investors believe that the market is telling them a message and don't realize it is not a market message but a heavily controlled manipulation to make them believe so and to dupe them out of their positions. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
The Great Unwinding of the Commodities Carry Trade / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Commodity Bulls Jump The Shark The GlobeAndMail is reporting on The Real Reason Commodities Are Tumbling .
To hear Donald Coxe tell it, the commodity selloff ripping through Canada's stock market is no accident. It is the result of a deliberate, brilliantly executed plan hatched at the highest levels of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury.
U.S. authorities engineered the collapse in commodities a move he said was necessary to shore up the global financial system to be bitter. My attitude is, goddamn it, they're good it was brilliant.
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Thursday, September 11, 2008
Re-Inflation About to Send Gold and other Commodities Soaring / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: With events changing daily ... with the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie ... with important news coming out almost hourly — I'm sure you're often wondering: "What does Larry think here? How do I make money in these crazy markets and economic environment?"
Indeed, I'm receiving more questions about the markets ... more doubts about the commodities bull market ... more inquiries about inflation versus deflation, than I have in years.
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Thursday, September 11, 2008
Gold Crashes Through Support on Hedge Fund Selling / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
THE PRICE OF GOLD fell yet again early in London on Thursday, slumping from an overnight floor of $756 to reach a new 11-month low at $739 per ounce.World stock markets fell for the seventh Sept. session in nine as investors fled all asset classes for cash, dragging Russian equities to a new two-year low and pulling Taiwanese stocks to their worst average since late 2005.
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Thursday, September 11, 2008
Gold Selloff Continues as Hedge Funds Deleverage / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold's sell off continued yesterday and gold has fallen to new 11 month lows. Gold recovered slightly in Asian trading before a further sell off in early European trading. Gold remains under serious pressure as the dollar's rally has continued with the dollar reaching a 1 year high against the euro of $1.3890. Meanwhile, oil has fallen again and NYMEX sweet crude is now near the psychological $100 level.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 11, 2008
The Rebirth Of Gold And Silver Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
Back in April I wrote an article entitled "The Death of Gold" which suggested a longer term correction was on the cards for gold. I was partly led to that conclusion by the headline article below from The London Times dated 14th March 2008. Three days later gold topped at $1032 and has dropped as much as $773 for a 25% correction. Silver has not surprisingly fared worse with a drop as great as 45% due to its thinner and more volatile markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Deleveraging Hedge Funds Drag Commodities Lower / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Frank_Holmes
Leveraged hedge funds are selling billions of dollars worth of commodities investments to meet their redemption demands, and this is another severe short- term factor driving down prices. Our funds own similar stocks, and thus we are caught up in this powerful force that some have described as a “mechanical sell-off” by hedge funds and banks that need liquidity.
Adding to the downward pressure are other rumors that “rogue” hedge funds are attacking like sharks when blood is in the water. These predators are allegedly aggressively short-selling the stocks that are in the portfolios of their vulnerable peers, which sends prices even lower.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2008
The Agriculture Commodities Time Bomb / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Money_and_Markets
Commodity prices have pulled back sharply, enough for some market watchers to pronounce the commodity bull "dead." I'll take that bet, because I think we're just seeing a correction in a long-term bull market. What's more, when the next commodity price squeeze comes, it might not be from a sector you'd expect, like energy or metals. It might be food.
I probably don't have to tell you about rising food prices. In the U.S., the cost of groceries rose at an annualized 8.4% rate in July (the latest data available).
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