Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Energy Resources Bull Market Remains Intact / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Joseph_Dancy
Flooding last month interrupted rail traffic in the Midwest , disrupting ethanol production and shipments. Shipments of low-sulfur Power River Basin coal needed for many power plants has also been impacted. Coal inventories are already lean at many generating plants. Barge traffic has come to a standstill in many areas on the Mississippi River .
The impact of the floods on the global agricultural and energy markets in our opinion will be much larger than expected. We think the extent of these impacts will become evident quite soon, and will be reflected in the markets.
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
Gold Ambushed by Powerful Forces of Global De-leveraging / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
For the second time in the last several weeks, the gold market has been on the receiving end of ambushes. Leading up to their July 3rd announced rate hike, the Euro Central Bank strong hints prompted the last ambush. The gold futures contracts bear this out easily, as the big cartel players sold down the gold price with heavy paper supply simultaneously. They had to do so. When physical is in reduced supply, resort to trusty paper. After stabilizing in the 920 to 925 range, gold promptly rose to exceed 980, only to be ambushed yet again. The ambush consists of an unexplainable sudden $20 decline in midday , cheered by the majority but without any analysis of where the decline originated. The motive for the early July ambush was simple. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Gold Investors Shell Shocked by 6% Plunge as Selling Continues / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD slipped back from an early 1% bounce in London on Thursday, holding near a two-week low at $924 per ounce as Asian and European stock markets capped their recent rally, falling for the ninth time in July so far.Crude oil bounced 40¢ to $124.85 per barrel – down 15% from the record top hit earlier this month.
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
Gold Heading for Seasonal Lows Prior to Strong August Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $922.70, down $25.50 and silver was down 55 cents to $17.38.
Gold has rallied in Asia and in early European trading with bargain hunting buying. Traders and investors with more medium to long term horizons realize that the speed and depth of the sell off is overdone. Especially as none of the fundamental macroeconomic or geopolitical issues have disappeared or even abated. Speculators, both long and short ( it is important to remember that most speculative money is on the short side of the oil, gold and silver markets), can have real impacts in the short term and create volatility and exacerbate trends in either direction. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Ominous Top Forming in Gold Mining ETF / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Current weakness in the Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (AMEX: GDX) is imbuing the larger chart pattern with a very ominous look -- of a major, multi-month top forming. Furthermore, if the price structure presses beneath critical support between 42.50 and 41.50, the massive top formation will trigger significant sell signals that project a target of 37 to 34 thereafter.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Australian Emerging Gold Stocks- Big Bang For Your Buck / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Neil_Charnock
Big bang for your buck – isn't that what investors want – the ten bagger or better. But where is it going to come from next. Haven't the easy pickings already been taken this far into the PM bull? After all the low hanging fruit has been taken hasn't it? You can see that from the charts on the HUI and the XAU can't you? That is not to say these magnificent indices will not go higher but I am talking about the easy pickings and leverage. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Gold Plunges 4% as Crude Oil Sinks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL Gold dumped another $12 per ounce Wednesday morning in London , falling more than 4% from yesterday's four-session high.World stock markets continued their sharp rally, meantime, with Europe's 300 largest shares just climbing out of the 20% bear-market loss that hit between Nov. and June.
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Profiting from Alternative Energies That Work / Commodities / Renewable Energy
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Many Americans are disgusted by the fact that, faced with an energy crisis, the government seems to produce nothing but hot air. I think the government is paralyzed because there's no one clear solution.
Instead, there are a multitude of options — more drilling, nuclear power, hydrogen cars, solar power ... you name it. Every alternative has a lobby in Washington to press its case, but there's no one to tell our elected officials which is the best route to take.
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Junior Gold Stocks Benefit from Stabilizing Equity Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Junior Gold Stocks - With the Stock Market Panic behind us - for now - we are settling in for a range bound, relatively calm, second half of '08. Junior Gold Stocks should finally start to benefit as the wet blanket smothering equity markets lift. The New York Stock Exchange indicator for new lows reached an extreme of 1304 on Tuesday the 15 th of July. That was even worse than the 1100 new lows reached on the 22 nd of January. Such extremes spell one thing P-A-N-I-C.
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Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Gold Corrects Lower Following Oil Price Plunge Below $130 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $948.20, down $15.20 and silver was down 44 cents to 17.93. Gold continued to fall in Asia and in early European trading it is down by nearly 1.3%.Gold was due a correction after its recent surge in price and remains up some 6% in the last month (from $882 to $935) unlike oil and the majority of stock markets (which are down by similar amounts). Gold's recent outperformance may have led to a bout of profit taking and further consolidation is likely prior to challenging the March highs of $1030 per ounce in the coming weeks.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Soft Commodities Price Trends / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With paper oil prices having peaked, we keep hearing a question that demonstrates the uninformed minds of many strategists and talking heads in the business media. That question is, “Have commodity prices peaked?” Again, commodities is not a homogeneous asset class. Comprising it are actually three separate and distinct commodity groups. Energy, minerals, and Agri-Food are the three major genus of the family referred to as commodities. Each is driven by different and unique factors. Each will have a individualistic investment cycle that will drive prices and returns. Falling oil prices may tangentially influence some Agri-Food prices, but do not dominate them. However, the greater impact of lower oil price may be the reduction in costs and improved profitability.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Financial Sector in Crisis as Gold Stocks Set to Go Ballistic / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Petch
Right now, those holding financial stocks can be viewed as a frog in a pot of boiling water. As long as the water does not boil, the frog is safe…but mark my words, before the year closes out, the water will boil.
Trying to have a realistic and “contrary view” when someone is directly involved in a particular market is extremely difficult, especially when being stuck in the pot. This will apply to those in the commodity market within 3-4 years, so everyone involved will have to try and have a level head. As gold bugs, we are trying to stick are toes into the water but are repelled by the heat. It will be important to make sure all participants are carrying a thermometer in their pocket to realize when the markets become overheated to a near boiling point, causing everything to spill over.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Gold Rises as Stock Markets Fall on Poor US Earnings / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD rose sharply in London on Tuesday, touching a four-session high of $975 per ounce as European stock markets fell hard.Crude oil held just above $130 per barrel as Tropical Storm Dolly passed by the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico . The US Dollar bounced from a one-week low vs. the Euro and traded at $2.00 to the British Pound.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Gold Forecasts Revised Upwards to $1200 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $963.40, up $7.00 and silver was up 25 cents to 18.37. Gold traded sideways to slightly up in Asia before rising in early European trading by nearly 1%.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The Insanity of Rising Crude Oil AND Gold Prices / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Brian_Bloom
One characteristic of the charts is that they show patterns which demand attention, regardless of any preconceptions or prejudices one might have.
I have been writing fairly extensively recently about a psychological phenomenon known as “cognitive dissonance” which – broadly speaking – means that a healthy mind cannot comfortably hold two conflicting thoughts simultaneously. Typically what happens if one has a fairly well entrenched view on any subject, and a piece of conflicting evidence manifests, is that one either rejects the new evidence as being “obviously” (?) wrong, refuses to acknowledge its existence, or rationalises it away as being unimportant.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Gold Bullion and Stocks Flashing Seasonal Buy Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Peter_Degraaf
Gold and Silver Stocks of the HUI index, past and present, as well as future expectations. This essay looks at the seasonal lows for the HUI index, and examines the rise that followed this low, for the past 9 cycles (1999 – 2008). This study should give us a good idea for future expectations, regarding the remainder of 2008. “As the HUI goes, so goes the gold price”. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Primer in Mining Equity Market Investments / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: John_Lee
In the past paper, we talked about the vast performance disparity among metals, and offered our take on which metals to buy (Gold, Zinc) and which to avoid (Copper) going forward.
Not all metals are created equal - metals review: http://new.goldmau.com/article.php?id=224 In this paper, we will provide the rationale behind mining equity investment, how to choose between metals futures or metals miners, and conclude with which mining sectors to buy and which to avoid.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Gold Turns Bullish on Surging Global Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD rose in London on Monday morning, undoing most of last week's 1% loss to trade above $963 per ounce as the New York opening approached.Crude oil bounced from a seven-week low beneath $129 per barrel after US forecasters put a 29% chance on Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength as it enters the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico .
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Both Inflation or Deflation Point to Recession, Gold Outperforms Gold Stocks During Bear Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $956.40, down $12.70 and silver fell 53 cents to 18.12. Gold traded sideways to slightly up in Asia before rising in early European trading by nearly 1%.
Despite the very sharp fall in oil prices and other commodities last week, gold only fell by 0.2%. Silver was down by 3%. August Crude fell by more than 11% - it fell $16.34 from over $145 to $128.74. And Prudent Bear's Doug Noland points out that August Gasoline sank 11.5% (up 27.8% y-t-d), and August Natural Gas dropped 10.2% (up 42.9% y-t-d). September Copper declined 1.9%. September Wheat fell 3.2% and August Corn sank 11.8%. The CRB index was hit for 7.4% (up 19.1% y-t-d). The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) sank 9.5% (up 30.5% y-t-d and 55% y-o-y).
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Gold Projects Bullish Trend to $1215 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold has basically been on a roll for over a month, maybe it's time for a little rest. At this point it looks like no more than a rest but let's go through the routine.
GOLD : LONG TERM - I've been away for a few weeks so this week is sort of a “catch-up” week. The long term P&F Chart shows an upside break-out with a projection to the $1215 level. That would put us into new all time high territory and could cause the price to continue towards that long held, very long term, projection to the $1600 mark.
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