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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Gold Thoughts - Gold Outperforms US Stocks by more than 300% / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Much talk about this index or that index making a new high, or near a new high. The level for an index is interesting, but the return being earned is more important. A stock market index could conceivably make a new high each and every day without providing a desirable return. Today's graph compares the return over the past five years of an investment in $Gold and U.S. stocks, as measured by the total return on the S&P 500.

As is readily apparent from that graph, $Gold has substantially outperformed an investment in U.S. equities. Why these results? Gold's price is a mirror reflection of the global purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. As the Federal Reserve has grossly mismanaged U.S. monetary policy over the years, the global forex market has pushed down the value of the dollar. That depreciation of the dollar's value is not reflected in the equity market.

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Commodities

Monday, April 16, 2007

Gold Mega Trend - KEEP FOCUSED / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Aden_Forecast

Gold is on the rise. Investors are excited, especially after last month's volatility, which proved to be nerve wracking for many gold investors. This alone reinforces why it's important to focus on the major trend.

Chart 1 shows gold's mega uptrend and as you can see, the volatility over the past year doesn't look like much. On the contrary, this chart illustrates gold's strength as it sits near the high side of the rise that started in 2001. This is the most important picture to keep in mind when investing in gold. The bull market since 2001 is clearly underway.

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Commodities

Monday, April 16, 2007

Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Gold Boom and US Dollar Bust / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Joseph_Russo

Introduction
After a short tirade inspired by the financial alchemy surrounding the world's reserve currency, we will quickly shift our focus to more stable realities.

Through a briefing of price charts, we will speculate on just how far the dollar can fall, and to what heights Gold may climb. In addition, Elliott Wave Technology will share with readers precisely how we have kept our trading clientele on the right side of a rather challenging Gold market from the print high of 730.40 in May 2006, through the violent, and choppy, year-long consolidation experienced since.

Gold Boom / Dollar Bust
As the U.S dollar threatens a two-year double-bottom re-test of its 2004 low, it serves as a timely reminder that the dollar remains firmly entrenched in a century long secular bear market. Some 15-years ago in 1992, the dollar hit it lowest levels striking prints south of 78.50. Last week, it slipped back below 82.00 breaching lows most recently recorded last year in December of 2006.

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Commodities

Monday, April 16, 2007

Trading Thoughts - Gold and Sillver Bullish, Equities at risk on Yen Carry Trade unwinding / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Last weekend we noted that the U.S. dollar had closed out that previous week at a new low, based on the Median U.S. Dollar Index. That weakness suggested that more weakness for the dollar would develop. Such was what happened this week as the dollar was sold against almost all other national monies. The latest valuations have the U.S. dollar closing at another new low on Friday. That condition makes the U.S. dollar over sold in the short-term, but continuing in a major bear market.

The strategic view that precious metals will do well is being confirmed.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Silver Analysis - Trending higher towards Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Roland_Watson

Here are the latest numbers on silver as of this weekend with changes on the week in parentheses (acronyms are explained at bottom):
London Silver Fix Price: $13.88 (+$0.30 on week)
NYMEX Spot Price: $14.01 (+$0.33)
RSI: 64.88 (+5.76) ( 70 overbought/30 oversold - short term top-bottom indicator )
RMAR: 1.02 (+0.01) ( 1.30 overbought - monthly to yearly top indicator )
NYMEX SLI: 1.51 (-0.01) (1.80 overbought - multi-year top indicator )

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Commodities

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Merv_Burak

A couple of ups and downs during the week but mostly ups. Are we heading for new highs ahead?

GOLD : LONG TERM

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Commodities

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Gold, Metals and US Dollar Analysis : Got Discipline? / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Dominick

Joe Nicholson writes “Whether the Federal Reserve tightens incrementally to look tough on inflation for which it is almost entirely responsible, or whether it makes a small cut to support a busted housing market for which it is entirely responsible, precious metals are poised to be the long term beneficiaries of either policy choice.”

~ Precious Points: All I Really Need to Know About the Economy I Learned in Kindergarten , April 01, 2007

The last few updates essentially took the position that the short term fundamental outlook was muddled, but that, nonetheless, precious metals stood to benefit in any likely event. Despite the ebb and flow of rate cute expectations, gold and silver (and platinum, too!) indeed extended their rallies over the past two weeks on steady declines in the dollar and persistent inflation data. An 11.9% increase in M2 over the last six weeks probably hasn't hurt either.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Utilities Companies Quietly Worry about Uranium Supply / Commodities / Uranium

By: James_Finch

According to Friday's Nuclear Market Review (NMR), many market participants were left stunned by the recent record jump in the weekly spot uranium price. The market has increasingly diverged between those who have U3O8 and those without. Utilities with existing supply contracts “are heaving a sigh of relief,” NMR editor Treva Klingbiel wrote. And those trying to find uranium in today's climate “are forced to face the reality of a seller's market,” she said.

Is there pity for one market participant, who is now scrambling for ‘very near term delivery' of nearly 500 thousand pounds U3O8? Probably not. This buyer must compete with 7 others hoping to secure about 3.2 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.

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Commodities

Friday, April 13, 2007

The Evolution of Gold or Why Gold is Moving Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

This piece is written on the base provided by GFMS, as always, a most competent gold survey of what happened in the gold market last year . Their conclusions highlight the evolution of the gold market over the last 7 years, since the Washington Agreement was signed in 1999.

At that time in an environment of a gold market clouded by the constant threat of Central Bank sales, the treatment of the metal as a commodity and the accelerated gold production fuelled by the hedging of future production at prices persistently higher than those achieved when a new mine came into production.

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Commodities

Friday, April 13, 2007

Edward Pastorini and the Gold Fields sting of April 2007 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

Investors are moving in on BIZO as acquisition completes...

"Shares climbed 110% yesterday and 14% today. Watch for more news tomorrow and get ahead of this new campaign..."

Or rather, that's what the latest batch of junk-and-pump emails to hit our servers here at BullionVault would have you believe.

Ramping stocks is illegal, of course. Buying into the hype is stupid. Getting one of the world's major news organizations to do both for you at once...well, perhaps that's genius.

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Commodities

Friday, April 13, 2007

South Wyoming's Best Uranium Discovery? / Commodities / Uranium

By: James_Finch

Until the previous uranium cycle ended in the 1980s, Juniper Ridge had reportedly been the site of 12 small open-pit uranium mines. Many in the industry had called it the ‘best uranium discovery in southern Wyoming.'

In yesterday's conversation with Dr. Robert Rich, we determined he had the credentials and industry knowledge to provide Yellowcake Mining (YCKM) with credibility in the uranium space. But, what about the geology? Many juniors have skated onto the radar by using a ‘big name' to attract investors. Too often, the property's geology is lacking the factors which would lead to actual uranium mining. Often, the industry-celebrity name is barely familiar with the company's property.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Uranium Expert: Consolidation, But No ‘Price Crash’ Ahead / Commodities / Uranium

By: James_Finch

Soaring yellowcake prices have accelerated a greater number of uranium juniors rolling off the assembly line. As fast as stock promoters can revive old shells, joint venture a more serious uranium company's castaway property into the re-named shell, and then wheel a former ‘big name' out of retirement (or a nursing home), the company will announce they are in the ‘hunt' for uranium.

Nearly all are mining the stock market – that means you, specifically the investor. Very few, probably less than 10 percent, have any realistic chance of ever putting a shovel to the ground and coming up with uranium ore. Fewer still are likely to intersect sufficiently economic delineation holes which might someday become a uranium mine.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

The Gold Sector Starts a New 13 Week Bullish Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Donald_W_Dony

From the correction low in early October 2006, gold has shown increasing technical strength as each new 13-week trading cycle unfolds and lifts the metal higher. This sequence of improving prices gives a good indication of expanding strength and also helps forecast the movement of this precious metal over the next few months. With a new 13-week trading cycle developing in the first half of April (see the lower portion of Chart 1), a price peak can be anticipated mid-point (second half of May) at a level of near $720. The next trough should form in late June.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Molybdenum Mining Stocks? Check with Locals, Natives First / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: James_Finch

Institutions and investors are climbing aboard as greater interest emerges in molybdenum. The silvery white metal adds anti-corrosive properties to everything from pipelines and power plants to desalination plants, automotive parts and air pollution systems. Find out if the project has permits before jumping into the moly mania. We interviewed Adanac Molybdenum executive chairman Larry Reaugh about the dozens of junior resource companies, which now proclaim they are part of the Molybdenum Bull Market. His company appears as a potential molybdenum producer on the horizon.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Uranium prices rise 19% to $113 in one week! / Commodities / Uranium

By: Money_and_Markets

Sean Brodrick writes :Boy, I sure hope you're holding some uranium investments … because at the latest auction for the white-hot metal, the spot price of uranium oxide (U3O8) soared $18 to $113 per pound!

That's a 19% rise in just one week. According to Nuclear Market Review , it's the largest single weekly price increase since uranium has been tracked!

And you know what?

You ain't seen nuthin' yet!

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Molybdenum and Uranium: Vital for Nuclear Reactors / Commodities / Uranium

By: James_Finch

Molybdenum plays a more vital role in the global nuclear renaissance than you might suspect. Without the silvery white metal, the world's energy infrastructure would somewhat suffer. But, nuclear power plants would be set back at least two decades. The new high performance stainless steels (HPSS) contain as much as 7.5 percent molybdenum and can add more than three times the life to the world's aging nuclear fleet condenser tubes.

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Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2007

Commodities Market Wrap - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Gold
Gold put in another good week closing up $10.40 to $679.40 (+1.55%). This was gold's highest weekly close in 6 weeks, and was the daily high close for the week as well.

Gold's next target is the Feb. high of $686.70 on a closing basis and $692.50 on an intra-day basis. From there the next target is the multi-year high of May 2006 at $730.40 (intra-day).

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Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2007

War with Iran? - The Crude Oil Crisis Leads to Gold and Silver / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

All is not well in the oil market. Not simply because of the demand supply pressures.

Oil supplies, to a large enough extent to exert overwhelming pressure on the oil price, reside in nations that are not only involved in conflict within themselves over their own branches of Islam, but in nations that are thoroughly disposed to loathe the West, particularly the U.S. of A.

Now add to that the wealth they themselves have in their pockets, which is sufficient to influence the flow of the U.S.$ market to its detriment, a market that is already under pressure from an over issuance of the currency to support the bleeding Trade deficit now at destructive proportions, and the potentially overwhelming surpluses in the hands of all the nations of the world.

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Commodities

Monday, April 09, 2007

In Situ Recovery Uranium Mining - The Water Factor / Commodities / Uranium

By: James_Finch

Our interview with Glenn Catchpole of Uranerz Energy explains what investors should know about water's role in ISR uranium mining. Companies with an ISR project may disappoint shareholders because of the water location, or lack of water, in relation tothe ore body.

As part of our efforts to better educate not only uranium stock analysts and investors, but also the media and environmental groups, we have expanded upon last year's introduction to In Situ Recovery uranium mining with our Advanced ISR Series. Water plays an integral role for In Situ Recovery (ISR) uranium mining.

If the water is not in the right place, ISR mining can not take place. A company's ‘pounds in the ground' are nearly worthless or may have to be extracted through other means.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Commodity Markets Analysis, Meat, Gold, Corn and Peak Oil / Commodities / Inflation

By: David_Petch

Where's the Beef?? It Better be in Your Freezer - Several different things I want to address first before getting to analysis of the HUI. The first one has to do with meat. The governments do not include the price of food or energy in the core rate of inflation (soon they will be including those that lie in graveyards into their index to further “average” the price down I am sure of it) so everything that you or I have to buy in the grocery store no matter how much costs rise is not “their definition of inflation”. This is the government's way of hiding the volumes of money being created out of thin air.

The coming of Peak Oil is causing a movement in the US to produce ethanol in order to provide an alternate fuel source. The big corporations are pushing for corn because it is big money. Use of straw grass, sugar beets etc. is far more efficient in the energy balance of the production equation.

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