Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 14, 2021
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation is back, and that’s usually depicted as good for gold. But is the yellow metal still a hedge against inflation, or has something changed?Inflation has returned. This is partly understandable. After all, during the Covid recession , consumers and businesses accumulated a lot of cash as their spending was reduced, while revenues were sustained by money transfers from the government. These funds are now entering the economy, which makes demand grow much faster than supply, thus boosting prices. After some time, supply may catch up, curbing inflation. However, there is an important risk that inflation will turn out to be higher and/or more permanent than many analysts believe.
From the fundamental point of view, gold should benefit from higher inflation. But why? In theory, there are several channels by which inflation supports the yellow metal. First, the inflationary increase in the money supply makes all goods and services more expensive, including gold. Indeed, the scientific paper by Lucey and others finds a reliable long-run relationship between gold and the US money supply.
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Friday, June 11, 2021
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
After decades of concerted effort by governments and central banks, the focus away from gold as money has led to its characterization as an investment, a hedge, insurance, etc. Some still refer to it as a barbarous relic. Are any of these descriptions valid?
GOLD AS INSURANCE
There is a seemingly plausible argument for calling gold a hedge or insurance given volatile conditions in our society today. But the logic leading to those classifications ignores the single factor that affects the price of gold. That single factor is the actual loss in purchasing power of the paper money substitute in which gold is priced.
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Friday, June 11, 2021
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
Excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new FREE report "Gold Investor's Survival Guide: 5 Principles That Help You Stay Ahead of Price Turns."
There is a glaring hole in the popular understanding of what drives gold's price.
Mainstream finance believes the Federal Reserve's monetary and interest rate policies shape the trend.
That sounds like a solid explanation... except, the Fed officials themselves disagree!
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Friday, June 11, 2021
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
In the current environment of rising inflation and easy monetary policies, the value of gold could potentially go sharply higher from recent levels.
Unlike many traders out there, the successful gold investor has learned to “see the forest through the trees.”
Put simply, gold investors understand that the shiny yellow metal is not likely to go straight up in price. It can, however, be expected to trend higher and over time, moving well beyond all-time highs.
Modern investors, who have grown accustomed to the free-for-all that is the stock market, often find themselves asking why they ought to buy and hold gold. The savvy investor, on the other hand, understands that you cannot afford not to own gold bullion.
Thursday, June 10, 2021
Gold’s Inflation Utility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold is okay, but not yet unique
There are times when gold is an okay inflation hedge, while under-performing the likes of industrial metals, oil/energy, materials, etc. During those times, if you’re doggedly precious metals focused you should consider silver, which, as a hybrid precious metal/industrial commodity, has more pro-cyclical inflation utility than gold.
But as I have argued for much of the last year, if the inflated situation is working toward cyclical progress (as it is currently) then there is a world full of trades and investments out there to choose from, many of which are trouncing gold (which, as I have belabored for the better part of 2 decades now, is not about price but instead, value) in the inflated price casino.
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Thursday, June 10, 2021
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: OilPrice_Com
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Wednesday, June 09, 2021
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With the current situation suggestive of a Monty Hall problem, investors are clinging to the first, bullish door. But what if a different option is more likely?
The Monty Hall problem is a form of a probability puzzle, and what it shows is immensely unintuitive. Suppose you are on a game show, and you need to choose one of three doors. Behind one of them is a car and behind the others, goats. You pick a door, and then the host (who knows what’s behind them) opens one of the remaining doors, behind which there is a goat. The host now asks: “Do you want to change your door choice for the remaining doors?” So, what do you do?
It turns out that if you change the door, the probability of winning the car increases… two times! You have a 2/3 chance, instead of a 1/3. Tremendously unintuitive, indeed, but what if the same is happening on the market now? With a bullish prospect representing the door of the first choice, and the technicals and fundamentals the host’s help, wouldn’t it be safer to switch the door to win eventually?
Monday, June 07, 2021
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation broke into the economy violently. It’s a destructive, dark force. But gold can resist it, being after all a much stronger asset than Anakin Skywalker.Last month, I wrote that “inflation is knock, knock, knockin’ on golden door”. I was wrong. Inflation didn’t knock, it broke down the door! Indeed, as the chart below shows, the core CPI surged 3%, while the overall CPI annual rate soared 4.2% in April – this is twice the Fed’s target!
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Monday, June 07, 2021
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 wasted another good opportunity to rise – one where the credit markets were largely aligned. Is it a sign of upcoming tremors that the 500-strong index couldn‘t defend the daily gains? Commodities weren‘t under pressure, the dollar wasn‘t surging (looking at the closing prices), precious metals did well, and even lumber enjoyed a white candle again.
Inflation expectations retreated, and so did Treasury yields – what‘s holding stocks then? Neither uncertainty about the Fed policy, nor surging inflation cutting into P&L, nor crashing bonds – what we‘re seeing is run of the mill volatility as stocks move both into a structurally higher inflation environment, and await Fed moves which are much farther down the time line than the markets appreciate. Heck, even the option traders keep undergoing the earlier announced shift to complacency.
Yes, the taper talk has dialed back the inflation trades to a degree, but hasn‘t knocked them off in the least. In a reflation, both stocks and commodities do well, and we‘re still far away from worrying about weakening GDP growth rates (today‘s ADP and unemployment data are a good proof thereof) – in my view, worries about inflation not retreating nearly enough during this Treasury market lull (taking up this summer) would come into the picture first.
Reopening trades aren‘t over, the housing market activity (housing starts, new home sales) has slowed down a little while XLRE keeps running, financials remain as strong as value (yes, there is more juice in that trade still), and no mad rush into tech (growth) is underway. Capacity utilization isn‘t at the top of the pre-corona range exactly, and oil prices (these serve as additional tax, a drag on the economy) aren‘t biting nearly enough. The job market isn‘t at the strongest either, and the hours worked don‘t match prior extremes either. Last but not least, global supply chains haven‘t entirely recovered to meet the reopenings-boosted demand.
Monday, June 07, 2021
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Oilprice_Com
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Sunday, June 06, 2021
Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Mark_Adan
Investment involves taking a risk. It involves putting your money on something with the hope that it will increase in value. Therefore, it will be difficult for you to participate in the investment if you are not a risk-taker. Anything can happen at any time, and you might end up incurring losses or profits. For someone who only had hopes of making a profit, the losses may discourage him/her.
Investing in gold can be the best decision to make if you want to diversify your investment. Gold is always considered the safest asset because it does not depreciate. It means that its prices keep increasing with time. Therefore, you are sure of making a profit when you invest in it. Below are some of the tips for investing in gold.
Saturday, June 05, 2021
Money Is Cheap, Own Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth of the Gold Resource Investor discusses rising inflation and the role of hard assets. Sure Mr. Biden, money is cheap. But whose money is it?
The White House recently sent a $6 trillion budget plan to Congress.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Biden's first wide-ranging budget calls for big spending on infrastructure, education and, of course, climate change. His plan lays out $6 trillion in spending against just $4.2 trillion in revenues. That's an enormous 37% bump up from 2019 spending levels, and it suggests a deficit of $1.8 trillion, nearly double that of 2019.
The idea is to spend now while money is cheap, with interest rates at historical lows. In fact, they're at the lowest levels in 5,000 years of history.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Hedge Funds Getting Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The gold market has seen many momentum shifts in recent months. At the end of the day, however, the market really depends on one simple factor: Are the big money inflows trending in a bullish or bearish direction?
Near market lows, speculative interest tends to be heavily on the short (bearish) side. That sets the stage for buying pressure to be released when rallies force short sellers to cover their positions.
As traders shift to taking on more long (bullish) positions, momentum builds for higher prices.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
This Chart Shows When Gold Stocks Will Explode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The rebounds in Gold and Silver exceeded my expectations and closed May in a strong fashion, near the highs of the month.
Gold’s monthly close was the third-highest ever. Silver failed to break resistance at $28.50, but its monthly close at $28 was the second-highest in the last eight years.
As noted last week, Gold and gold stocks have perked up in real terms.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
In a previous article I wrote:
“Looking at this chart, it should be apparent that gold at $2000 is fully-priced. Unless you are convinced that the US dollar is going to crash soon, then expectations for much higher gold prices at this point are unwarranted.” ($10,000 Gold Or A Triple Top?)
The article was published in August 2020 and the chart is reprinted below…
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Gold Investor's Survival Guide / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
With Bitcoin losing more than 50% off its April high and retail prices rising across the board, you may be looking for a place to park your cash.
How about something with a bit of a track record in that area, like gold?
In 1975, gold futures were created. From there, opportunities to trade gold have flourished via stocks, ETFs and options.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Silver and Copper to Benefit from Global Electrification Push / Commodities / Electricity
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are making modest advances in this final trading week of May. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
During the extended weekend, millions more Americans compared to last year are expected to hit the roads for travel. They will be confronted with pain at the pump as gasoline prices have risen to over $3.00 per gallon in most parts of the country.
Other signs of a serious inflation problem are building following the massive cash injections into the economy by the Federal Reserve and the Joe Biden administration.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Will Gold Shine Under Bidenomics? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Bidenomics is a big departure from sound economics. But when reason sleeps, gold fortunes are born.Biden’s triumph in the presidential election does not just mean that a new man lives in the White House. It actually implies a fundamental shift in economic policy . Some analysts even see Biden’s agenda as a decisive break with neoliberalism or “Washington consensus”.
You see, in the old orthodoxy, most economists trusted in markets, argued for privatization, deregulation, and liberalization. Taxes and social benefits should be low and don’t discourage work and investments. The governments should run balanced budgets, avoiding large and permanent fiscal deficits , while central banks should hike interest rates to prevent inflation from running out of control.
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Monday, May 31, 2021
Is Gold Price Setting Up For A Rally Above $2000 Again? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals. Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently. This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety in preparation for some type of market reversion event.
The recent move above $1900 in gold shows that precious metals are likely entering a new bullish price phase. We highlighted this in a May 3rd research article suggesting that a new advancing cycle phase may push Gold to levels above $2100. If our research is correct, Gold may continue to rally higher – reaching a peak sometime near mid-October 2021.
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Saturday, May 29, 2021
Silver SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating high since last summer. While they’ve enjoyed some sharp rallies, those have been within that sideways-grind trend. That lack of overall upside progress has left this tiny contrarian sector out of favor, with apathy reigning. But as their recently-reported Q1’21 operating and financial results revealed, silver stocks’ fundamentals and upside potential remain good.
There aren’t many major silver miners in the world, and only a handful are primary silver producers that derive over half their revenues from silver. With such a small population, there are only a few silver-stock ETFs. The leading one is still the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF, which is also this tiny sector’s best benchmark. But nearing the end of Q1’21’s earnings season in mid-May, it only held $1.3b in net assets.
Following a mighty upleg that peaked in early August at SIL $51.53, the silver stocks have largely drifted laterally since. But their high trading range has been wide, encompassing both corrections and attempts at new uplegs. Plenty of speculators and investors are still interested in this obscure sector, as evidenced by an amazing episode in late January. That catapulted SIL a blistering 23.9% higher in just three trading days!
That was when Reddit’s famous wallstreetbets forum appeared to be starting to discuss engineering a silver short squeeze with massive retail buying. At the time I wrote a whole essay analyzing that. For our purposes today, that fascinating event proved that the right catalyst can still ignite big inflows into silver and its miners’ stocks. Unfortunately SIL resumed correcting after that, slumping on balance into late March.
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