Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, August 21, 2015
Gold Price Ratios / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
For your viewing pleasure, some pictures that readers of this site and NFTRH.com have been aware of for some time now and NFTRH subscribers are repeatedly kept aware of (whether they like it or not).
Gold is not just another metal...
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Friday, August 21, 2015
The Next Silver Bull Market May Have Already Started / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
There are fundamentals. And then there is legalized betting, ultimately backed by you, the tax payer. Otherwise known as speculative trades.Modern day commodity prices are determined by the latter, rather than by the result of trading based on the former.
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Friday, August 21, 2015
The Oil Bubble...Which Just Bust...Was Caused by Derivatives: That’s why Shale Oil is finished / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
There are plenty of reasons put-forward for why oil prices more than halved over the past year. But no one’s talking about a bubble that bust; seems like the world is wallowing in denial. Likely because if indeed it was a bubble (that just bust), it’s going to be a LONG TIME before anyone sees $100 again, and just about everybody has exposure to that scenario.
”I Blame it on the Saudi’s...BOMB THEM” says Donald Trump, well actually he didn’t say that; but that’s the sort of stupid remark you’d expect from a Republican Party Presidential front-runner.
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Friday, August 21, 2015
The Future of Natural Gas, Part II / Commodities / Natural Gas
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I discussed in the last edition of Oil & Energy Investor, this morning I made the keynote address at the Dominion Transport-hosted meeting of natural gas executives in western Pennsylvania.
My address comprised my primary take on natural gas prospects and is entitled “Natural Gas Moving Forward: LNG, Hubs, and Pricing Prospects.”
As always, I try to keep you in the loop of what’s happening when I meet with the movers and shakers, so today I’ll be sharing the rest of my address with you.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
Silver – More Evidence of a Price Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Silver prices hit a low of about $14.33 on July 24 after High Frequency Traders had run stops that week. It has happened before and will again. Occasionally they will run stops going up, not down. The gold to silver ratio has been hovering around 75.
That ratio has a long history of volatility. The ratio is high when silver prices are low and as silver prices push higher, the ratio drops. Note the graph of the gold to silver ratio using weekly data for ten years.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
Precious Metals Microcosm Expanding / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
NFTRH 353 introduced the idea of a Macrocosm, a planetary representation of elements that need to come into place for a real investment stance on the gold stock sector (as opposed to the imagined elements cooked up by perma-bulls over the last few years). The Macrocosm idea came to me when the gold sector was acting firmly counter-cyclical on a day that most other markets were suffering. Then it happened again.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
Did China Kick-Start A New Bull Market In Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Many have written about the devaluation of the Chinese currency last week, in particular its causes and consequences.
In mainstream media, most opinions are centered around the weakness of the Chinese economy which is now growing less than 7%. Logically, they argue, China wants to stimulate exports and stabilize the currency by ‘de-pegging’ it from a strengthening dollar.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Crude Oil Energy Markets and Jobs Disintegrating / Commodities / Crude Oil
The US Energy Information Administration released their weekly data this morning as usual. The reaction to the data from crude oil was anything but the usual. Most everyone in the industry was looking for a draw in crude oil stockpiles especially after yesterday afternoon’s API data showed a reduction in supplies.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Druckenmiller Buys A Lot Of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Stan Druckenmiller is going big on gold.
Druckenmiller is one of the world’s most successful and respected traders. As a hedge fund manager from 1986 to 2010, he generated an incredible average annual return of 30%.
Druckenmiller was also George Soros’s right-hand man at Quantum, Soros’s famed hedge fund. Quantum’s now legendary 1992 trade shorting the British pound was Druckenmiller’s idea. It made Quantum about $1 billion. People say the trade “broke the Bank of England.”
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Crude Oil Price Time for Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil gained 1.17% as hopes that crude oil inventories could decline for a third consecutive week weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude bounced off its key support line, but will we see the commodity above $43 in near future?
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
How Cheap are Gold Mining Stocks Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
Are Gold Stocks Cheaper Than They Were in 2008?
Chris Marchese, Senior Equity Analyst : The short and simple answer to this question is yes! Some will say--that is just my opinion. I could show you numerous equations proving the gold stocks were cheaper in 2008 than today and vice versa using similar metrics.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Crude Oil Price Works In Mysterious Ways / Commodities / Crude Oil
But there is one solution to staying ahead of oil's trend changes -- Elliott wave analysis
You know the expression "God works in mysterious ways"?
Well, according to an August 6 CNBC article, the price action of one financial market -- i.e., crude oil -- has out-mystified even God himself. Or, rather, the well-heeled star of the oil world, Andy Hall -- a.k.a. "God Trader."
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Uranium Has a New Hot Spot / Commodities / Uranium
Several developments in the uranium space, including the restart of a reactor in Japan that has been offline since the Fukushima disaster, have primed the commodity for a price surge. In this interview with The Energy Report, Mick Carew, research analyst with Haywood Securities, explains how, in addition to the Japanese restart, expansion in the Athabasca Basin is bolstering prospects for consolidation in the sector, and describes how a Brazilian phosphate company with a first-rate product might produce for portfolios.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2015
Gold Golden Opportunity or Gold-Plated Trap? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Gold broke out of a small pennant formation on the daily chart last week and gained $18.80/oz. to close the week at $1,112.90. On the weekly chart gold printed an engulfing bullish candlestick. The breakout above 1,100 is bullish but the real test will be a breakout above 1,140. For now, the daily Coppock Curve is rising and has a ways to go before it will signal a top in gold. Cycles point to an important low during July and a rally for all of August. Seasonally, August is very bullish for gold.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Dr. Copper is Speaking, are you Listening? ... / Commodities / Copper
Copper is an important commodity when it comes to the health of the world economies and how it does often reflects how strong or weak the economy is. Its been awhile since we took an indepth look at Dr. Copper to see how healthy it is so tonight we'll look at a few charts starting with a daily look.
The daily chart for Copper is showing it has completed a double headed, double H&S top, which is having a somewhat ugly breakout and backtest of the lower neckline #2. The smaller H&S #1 was picture perfect complete with a small blue expanding falling wedge for the left shoulder and a blue bearish rising wedge as the right shoulder. H&S #2 was very symmetrical as shown by the neckline symmetry line which shows the height for the left and right shoulders. Outside of the messy breakout and backtest, which happens sometimes, this chart is still very bearish looking.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
The Future of Natural Gas / Commodities / Natural Gas
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: On Thursday morning, I’ll be delivering my major address on the future of natural gas. The occasion is a high-powered meeting hosted by Dominion Transport at the beautiful Nemacolin Woodlands Resort in western Pennsylvania.
Attending will be more than 100 leading CEOs and other executives from principal gas production, transmission, distribution, and end using companies.
My keynote presentation is entitled “Natural Gas Moving Forward: LNG, Hubs, and Pricing Prospects.” And in it I address where liquid natural gas (LNG) prices have been… where they are now… and where they’re going.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
This “Pig” Just Made a Massive Bet on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By Dan Steinhart
Stan Druckenmiller is going big on gold.
Druckenmiller is one of the world’s most successful and respected traders. As a hedge fund manager from 1986 to 2010, he generated an incredible average annual return of 30%.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Gold, No Interest! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
Stronger than expected US retail sales data undercut some of the recent safe haven trades ( buying bonds, the yen and gold) sending all three lower in today’s session.
For the first two weeks of August, retails sales are up 1.7% versus a year ago and up 0.3% from July.
That got the “Fed is going to hike in September” talk starting up once more which of course send the Dollar higher and most commodities lower.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Silver Price Cycle Low – Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
The price of silver has been crushed during the last four years. Prices are ready to reverse. We will know soon enough after the High-Frequency-Traders have their way with prices for paper silver and gold on the CME. But consider:
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Riding the Energy Wave to the Future / Commodities / Energy Resources
“Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” – J. Paul Getty
This week’s yuan devaluation was big news, but it’s really part of a much bigger saga. Events around the globe are combining to create huge economic change over the next few years. We are watching giant, multidimensional chess games played by some master players.
Energy is the chessboard that connects all the players. What happens when the board changes shape in the middle of the game? If you don’t know the new energy landscape, you’ll have a hard time playing to a draw, much less winning.
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