Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, February 08, 2014
How Gold is Currently Being Priced / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold's Price
Ahead of the Herd readers know I believe gold's price is being driven by rising, or falling, real interest rates.
Real interest rates are the level of annual yield paid to savers and investors over and above the pace of inflation.
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Saturday, February 08, 2014
Gold and Silver Stocks Moving Average Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
The gold and silver stocks have rebounded nicely but have consolidated in recent weeks. Where is this going and how do we know? Well, a few weeks ago we publicly said that a major bottom is in. Thus, we believe the trend will go higher. Beyond belief, we need real confirmation that the sector will continue higher. Enter moving average analysis. By using a few simple moving averages we can better understand the current context and get confirmation that the sector will continue to move higher. GDX, GDXJ and SIL could soon test moving averages which have been resistance for the past 13 months.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
2014 Y-T-D: Gold 1 Fantasies 0 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
As we welcomed the beginning of 2014 the advice from "gurus" was rather straight forward. Gold was going to $1,060. At the same time the stock markets would continue to advance. So our life would be financially happy if we sold our Gold and bought the favorites fantasies in the NASDAQ/technology group, such as TWTR. Well, seems the real world was to hold some disappointment for those strategists.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
Silver Price Outperforming Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Since Monday financial markets have consolidated following the emerging market currency shocks of the previous week. Safe-haven bonds were strong initially, before tailing off yesterday. Equities started the week badly but steadied yesterday, and gold spiked at $1274 on Wednesday before being knocked back $20 subsequently. The result is gold was more or less unchanged on the week by last night, though early indications London time are for better prices today.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
Gold, Silver and The Fed's Total Mandate / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The errors of financial policy, led by the world's central banks have once again created the makings of a massive crisis. Blind to risk, and completely captured by politics and ideology, it is as if the Federal Reserve and it's counterparts have been awarded a total mandate. All of the misplaced and mis priced risk is poised to flood toward precious metals.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 07, 2014
Gold, Silver And The Gathering Crypto Currency Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Much controversy surrounds comparisons between precious metals and the growing number of crypto currencies. In some ways an ideological wedge has formed between hard asset investors and the most vocal of electronic currency advocates.While both investment options remain relatively sequestered from the mainstream spotlight, they both offer fascinating perspectives for understanding the ongoing monetary and financial crisis.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
Gold as a Hyperinflation Hedge - Black Swans, Yellow Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
ANDREW DICKSON WHITE ENDS HIS CLASSIC HISTORICAL ESSAY on hyperinflation, “Fiat Money Inflation in France,” with one of the more famous lines in economic literature: “There is a lesson in all this which it behooves every thinking man to ponder.” The lesson that there is a connection between government over-issuance of paper money, inflation and the destruction of middle-class savings has been routinely ignored in the modern era. So much so, that enlightened savers the world over wonder if public officials will ever learn it.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
Fight China's Smog with Ethanol, Says Chen Lin / Commodities / Ethanol
In decades past, we have seen that any commodity China really wants goes through the roof. We saw it in copper. We saw it in oil. We saw it in liquefied natural gas. If China starts mandating a 5% blend of ethanol to gasoline, ethanol should trade on par with gasoline. So says Chen Lin, author of the widely read newsletter What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? But there's more to the story: because China produces no ethanol, U.S. ethanol producers could be looking at a massive new market, not to mention a spike in profit margins. In this interview with The Energy Report, Chen discloses his favorite ethanol picks, as well as some compelling fracking names.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
The One All-Encompassing Truth Behind Energy Policy / Commodities / Energy Resources
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Most people think the “big” energy decisions are driven by what it costs at the pump or how much it takes to heat their homes (a lot, as it turns out this winter).
But as the controversial decision over the Keystone XL pipeline shows, there’s another element in play… and it’s a big one.
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Thursday, February 06, 2014
Dark Gold - Shedding Light On A Mysterious Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold is the simplest of financial assets - you either own it or you don't. Yet, at the same time, gold is also among the most private of assets. Once an individual locks his or her safe, that gold effectively disappears from the market at large. Unlike bank deposits or stocks, there is no way to tally the total amount of gold held by individual investors.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 06, 2014
Gold Corp Huge Gains Are at the End of "Acquisition Trail" / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
Peter Krauth writes: A few weeks back, Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), a top gold producer, made a hostile $2.6 billion offer for Osisko Mining Corp (TSE: OSK).
It was one of many signs that top gold producers are on the acquisition trail.
And another strong signal that gold prices may be heading upward.
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Wednesday, February 05, 2014
GOLD Price Rally Correction Within Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold has been trading higher since start of January but recovery is slow and overlapping within a trading channel which we think it's a corrective move. We are tracking wave 4 that can be part of an expanding diagonal in wave 5) down. If that is the case then current rally should stop somewhere around 1280-1300 region. Break of 1230 will confirm weakness for wave 5 of 5) going towards 1100/50.
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Wednesday, February 05, 2014
Taking Stock Of Silver Stocks – SLW, PAAS, CDE, AG, SSRI, HL / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
We are of the simple opinion that any substitute for the real thing is never as good a choice as the original, even when it comes to Precious Metals. There are so many other considerations that enter the picture when regarding mining stocks. One of the primary ones is management, what it can do to a stock’s performance separate and apart from its underlying purpose, silver production. There can be poor management, mismanagement, decision-making related to stock performance instead of getting the maximum performance out of its mining operations, overspending, misspending…you get the idea.
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Wednesday, February 05, 2014
JP Morgan Holds Highest Amount Of Physical Silver In History / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
While everyone is focused on the massive outflows in COMEX registered gold inventories and the gold ETF, GLD, it seems that an important evolution in silver is passing unnoticed. In what follows, Ted Butler, precious metals analyst specialized in COT analysis, reveals a remarkable insight in the physical silver market.
Butler’s calculations show that JPMorgan (JPM) has piled up the largest holding of physical silver in modern world. Since the silver price peak in May 2011, the bank has accumulated between 100 and 200 million ounces of physical silver (if not more). The equivalent in metric tonnes is between 3,110 and 6,220 tonnes.
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Wednesday, February 05, 2014
Seven Gold and Uranium Juniors with Near-Term Growth You Can't Ignore / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Many junior miners have an ace up the sleeve, and that is commodity price leverage. Joe Mazumdar, senior mining analyst with Canaccord Genuity, sat down with us to share what he looks for in junior companies with a lot of commodity price leverage. In this interview with The Mining Report, find out why bigger isn't necessarily better when it comes to gold mining projects, and why the market is favoring uranium explorers over producers—for now. Mazumdar also shares names of gold companies with "bite-sized" capital needs from Burkina Faso to California, as well as the apples of his eye in the Athabasca Basin, where management teams with significant track records are heading up promising exploration programs.
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Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Oil Trading Alert: Crude Oil Price Extends Declines / Commodities / Crude Oil
On Monday, crude oil lost 0.84% as weaker-than-expected U.S. and Chinese economic data fueled concerns over crude oil demand. Thanks to this news, light crude closed the day below $97 for the first time since Jan 27.
Data released over the weekend showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to a six-month low, falling to 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December. This weaker-than-expected numbers raised questions about economic growth in the world's second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.) and weighted on the price of light crude.
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
NYMEX No Future For Crude Oil Futures / Commodities / Crude Oil
Potatoes to Oil
According to Leah McGrath Goodman's well-researched book “The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World's Oil Market", the start of Nymex oil trading was in major part due to traders who stumbled upon oil futures after screwing up Maine potato futures. Their trading “industry” or gambling party had been built on predicting the Maine potato harvest, and—much more importantly—trying to manipulate potato prices, to the point that regulators were finally forced to act. They shut down the potato futures market in 1976, after repeated defaults on physical deliveries of more than 25 000 tons of potatoes. As Goodman explains, the traders were forced to cast around for something else to trade. Then-Chairman of the Nymex, Michael Marks tried to boost futures trading in boneless beef and plywood, but that didn't work. In 1978 however, Marks hit on the right thing and introduced heating oil futures - which was the jackpot gusher that led to 30 years of good times.
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Tuesday, February 04, 2014
Now Is the Time to Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist
Gold has been in a downturn for more than two years now, resulting in the lowest investor sentiment in many years. Hardcore goldbugs find no explanation in the big picture financial numbers of government deficits and money creation, which should be supportive to gold. I have an explanation for why gold has been down—and why that is about to reverse itself. I'm convinced that now is the best time to invest in gold again.
Monday, February 03, 2014
Could Gold Surprise Investors in 2014? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The demand for gold bullion is increasing. Each day there’s more evidence that suggests this phenomenon will continue. We see consumers buying gold bullion across the global economy. As a result, mints are working in overdrive mode to meet this demand and gold storage facilities are looking to add more vaults.
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Monday, February 03, 2014
Gold GLD ETF and the Intermediate Trend Trader / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014
Before we get into the charts I have seen several questions on what type of trader is Rambus. There are basically three types of traders. The short term, the long term and the intermediate term. I’m an intermediate trader that looks for the impulse move when a consolidation, top or bottom is confirmed. It’s those moves where you can make the most money in the shortest period of time.
The markets are either building out at top, bottom or consolidation pattern at any given time. This is where it’s much harder to make profitable trades because they are in chopping mode with no real trend, just short term moves going nowhere. It’s when these tops, bottoms or consolidation patterns are completed is when you get your impulse move and a trend to follow. Being in an impulse move is much easier psychologically because the chopping action has finally ended. On the other hand, during an impulse move, you will run into small consolidation patterns that form along the way that many think is the end of the move but in most cases it’s just a pause that refreshes.