Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Have Gold and Silver Stopped Responding to U.S. Dollar Price Action? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold cannot be printed or manufactured in contrast to the currency. That’s why over the long term it has kept its value as the ultimate currency. There can be no “gold war.” However, we often hear about a currency war. Sounds familiar, were did we hear this before?
The phrase “currency war” was coined by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega after the financial crisis of 2008. The idea is that highly indebted nations weaken the value of their currency by cutting interest rates down to zero and printing fiat currency in order to gain trade advantages (cheaper products to export) and to pay less debt service on their bonds. Countries compete against each other to achieve a relatively low exchange rate for their own currency. The policy can trigger retaliatory action by other countries that in turn can lead to a general decline in international trade, harming all countries.
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Friday, June 14, 2013
The Long Silver Ranger / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Could China be the big silver long? Who else has deep enough pockets to endure the recent price weakness and the increased margin requirements that typically follow?
Nevertheless, the Chinese willingness to accept fungible dollars instead of precious metal seems to be waning. They are quietly accumulating metals..
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Friday, June 14, 2013
Silver Market Duality / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Duality in trade in the precious metals markets has existed for decades. The decoupling has never been more obvious with the seeming dichotomy of prices versus demand and production.
We can discuss things below the surface, but it's far different than what we see and try to interpret.Below the surface, fundamentals exist that would be barely recognizable.Above the surface, we are left with phantom markets created out of greed and supported by a seemingly everlasting flow of liquidity and hope.
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Friday, June 14, 2013
Are the Gold Bugs Wrong? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jeff_Clark
What a ride the precious metals have been on recently. Gold and silver prices have fallen off a cliff, while gold stocks were thrown on the rocks and left for dead. GLD has seen record outflows.
Popular financial news shows featured guest after guest who proclaimed gold is now "officially" in a bear market, emboldened by the fact that in spite of its recent bounce, the price has languished below its September 2011 peak for 20 months. As a group, gold stocks are down an abysmal 54% over that same period. The capitulation process has been brutal.
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Friday, June 14, 2013
While the Fed Parties, Gold & Crude Oil Have Left the Building / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: J_W_Jones
Risk assets and financial markets around the world have been supported by central bank action for several years. Performing financial alchemy on a scale larger than has been seen in the history of mankind, central banks have hijacked global financial markets. Mountains of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and the creation of future asset bubbles has been their calling card for the past few years.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Gold and Silver Still in Bearish Trend as Nikkei Enters Bear Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Ben_Traynor
GOLD PRICES rose as high as $1394 an ounce during Wednesday's Asian trading, before easing back by lunchtime in London, as European stock markets also fell, following selloffs in the US and Asia.
Silver dropped back below $21.90 an ounce after briefly touching $22, while other commodities were also down on the day.
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Thursday, June 13, 2013
Time to Stress Test Your Resolve in the Gold Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Jeff_Clark
The Casey Research Metals and Mining team has received a number of worried and angry emails about gold's recent rollercoaster ride. I'd like to respond to them.
First, I understand. I'm an investor, too, and I also manage money for family members. We have positions that are underwater, a few dramatically so. Worse, in many cases a full position had been built, seemingly leaving no room to average down and lower our cost basis. This predicament isn't fun, and there are a limited number of options.
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Thursday, June 13, 2013
Paper and Physical Gold Battling for Supremacy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: The_Gold_Report
The recent drop in gold prices is a confirmation, or a revelation, to investors of the battle between the physical and paper gold markets. In this interview with The Gold Report, Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, predicts the timing of a handoff from Asian physical demand to Western speculative demand and assesses the readiness of the junior market to respond to a revival in commodity prices. Plus, in a tip to Father's Day, he discusses his efforts to groom the next generation of investors.
The Gold Report: In your latest newsletter, you advocate that gold investors pay close attention to the Federal Reserve meeting taking place on June 18. What are you looking for out of that meeting?
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Gold and Silver Tug of War, Blame Bernanke for Market Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Ben_Traynor
GOLD PRICES hovered just below $1380 an ounce Wednesday morning in London, with silver trading around $21.80, after the metals failed to break through $1380 and $22 respectively.
European stock markets ticked higher by lunchtime – with the exception of Germany's DAX – regaining some of yesterday's losses, which were followed by sell offs in the US and Asia.
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Banks Rig Global $5 Trillion Daily Currency Markets to Profit Off Clients / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: GoldCore
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,377.25, EUR 1,036.77 and GBP 878.40 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,369.50, EUR 1,031.10 and GBP 880.93 per ounce.
Gold fell $6.70 or 0.48% yesterday to $1,378.70/oz and silver slid to $21.49 and finished down 1.19%.
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Drillers Pay Hush Money to Keep Their Fracking Toxic Secrets / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Money_Morning
Tara Clarke writes: Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, the art of separating oil from rock, has the potential of turning America into the world's top oil and natural gas producer.
But as with any bonanza it has some secrets oil and gas companies want to keep under wraps. And some companies are willing to put some big bucks behind that.
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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Hydro-Fracking Boom or Bust? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: BATR
The economics of oil or natural gas hydrofracking are seldom analyzed from the perspective of the American consumer. Most discussions focus upon the investment opportunities of specific companies, royalties to leaseholders, windfall tax revenues that state governments will benefit from and the bonanza that local communities will enjoy from the added business activity. Missing is a clear understanding of the pricing points and factors that will determine the actual selling charge and total all inclusive retrieval costs in the domestic market. Will the price of energy drop precipitously or will the net effect be that the native end user sees no direct benefit from the rush to drill?
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Gold - Saving Real Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: James_Turk
Up until the late 1960s, it was considered prudent for everyone to have some savings. By forgoing consumption, savings gave the ability to consume more at a later date through the accumulation of interest income.
This result is similar to what one hopes to achieve with an investment, but savings and investments should not be confused. A person uses money to make an investment, whereas saving is the process of accumulating money itself. Thus, you put your money at risk when making an investment, which hopefully will become a wealth-creating asset. In contrast, savings are meant to be riskless.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Gold Downtrend Continuation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: ForexPros
A sharp reversal from 1423 through the lower side of a corrective channel suggests that a rally from 1337 is complete, and that the market is headed lower. We expect further weakness on gold for this week, ideally close to 1340 week with impulsive personality. The trend is bearish; below 1423 is critical level.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Why Soaring Crude Oil Production Growth Isn’t Helping Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Profit_Confidential
Mitchell Clark, B.Comm writes: There is now pressure on oil prices.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is getting awfully close to the $100.00-per-barrel level again. Futures traders are interpreting economic news, including last Friday’s employment report, as strength in the U.S economy.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Gold Falls to 3-Week Low on Talk of Slowing QE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Ben_Traynor
SPOT GOLD fell to three week lows below $1370 an ounce Tuesday, as stocks and commodities also fell amid ongoing speculation over when the US Federal Reserve might begin reducing the size of its quantitative easing program.
"Gold remains bearish while trading below the $1424 current June high," reckons Commerzbank senior technical analyst Axel Rudolph.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Gold Prices Bargain for India's Consumers, But Problem for Government / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: The last several months have been tough on gold prices, but gold bugs haven't lost their insatiable appetite for the yellow metal. With gold officially in a bear market, demand is surging at today's bargain prices.
Gold demand is especially strong in India, where gold is the investment of choice among consumers. India's gold imports reached 162 tons in May, almost twice the average level.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Solid U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Will Send Gold and Silver to New Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Bob_Kirtley
With US Non-Farm Payrolls coming in at a solid +175k, gold and silver prices are set to take another leg lower as a complete absence of additional quantitative easing removes the need to buy gold as a hedge against further easing of US monetary policy. We therefore see both gold and silver prices taking another large leg lower in coming months, with both precious metals hitting new multi-year lows before too long.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
June Silver's Weakest Seasonal Month Presents Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Clive_Maund
While silver is on the defensive short-term there is plenty of evidence that over the medium and longer-term it is setting up for a powerful rally. COT's and sentiment are already very bullish indeed, which means that when the turn does come, the rally is likely to be accentuated by panic short covering.
On its 6-month chart we can see how silver is being pressured lower by its falling 50-day moving average coming into play overhead, although the increasingly large gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages is indicative of an oversold state that increasingly calls for reversal. Volume is still predominantly negative, suggesting lower prices dead ahead. After that we can expect reversal. There was a pronounced bull hammer in silver in the middle of May towards the intraday low of which there is quite strong support - silver may drop no longer than the low of this hammer.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Gold Major Reversal Imminent, Rare Opportunity to Buy at Ridiculously Low Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013
By: Clive_Maund
We are very close to or at a major bottom in gold and silver now, regardless of the potential for another short term downleg. This is made plain by the charts we are going to look at in this update. COTs and sentiment are now at extraordinary extremes not seen in the entire history of this bullmarket. This means that when the turn really comes we are likely to see a scorching rally which will be driven by massive short covering that will leave most investors standing, mouths agape.
On its 6-month chart we can see gold starting to be pressured lower again by its falling 50-day moving average, after a feeble recovery rally. Although it looks set to continue lower short-term probably into the support approaching its April panic lows, for reasons that we will come to later there is considered to be a fair chance that these lows will hold, or that if the price does break to new lows, it won't be by much before it reverses to the upside after setting a bear trap. The position of the MACD indicator, which has largely neutralized following oversold extremes, certainly allows for further downside, but at the same time gold's overall oversold condition is shown by the large gap that has opened up between the price and its 50-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average quite far above.
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