Sunday, May 17, 2020

The Great Economy Reopening Gamble / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

We knew the April US jobs data would be ugly. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program last Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari predicted “the worst is yet to come.”

Kashkari is right; this won’t get better while so much of the economy is sidelined. The stay-at-home orders, while they help reduce coronavirus spread, have other side effects, too. Domestic violence increases, children miss educational opportunities, people with other health conditions go untreated. These are real problems.

The question is how to reopen without making the situation worse. Kashkari had some advice on that, too: “To solve the economy, we must solve the virus.”

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell gave a much-awaited speech yesterday, in which he sent one bearish and two bullish messages for gold. What exactly did he say and what does it mean for the yellow metal?

Powell Sends One Bearish and Two Bullish Messages for Gold
Jerome Powell gave a speech yesterday at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Fed Chair acknowledged the unprecedented depth of the coronavirus crisis, and its disastrous impact for the US labor market, something we also noted many times:

Sunday, May 17, 2020

An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers believe the US stock market has potentially ended the “relief rally” phase where the US Fed stimulus pushed prices off the recent lows and upward towards key Fibonacci retracement levels and will soon engage in a new price exploration phase.  We believe this new phase will attempt to properly value the “solvency” question that has become one of the top discussions for our researchers.

The Solvency question equates to this simple issue… How can individuals, companies, states, and other entities continue to operate with greatly reduced income/revenues, moderately high debts, and liabilities throughout a process of an extended shutdown?  Certainly, the option of adding more debt to ease the short term pain of lost revenues may be a solution, but we believe this issue is much bigger than these traditional short term solutions. We believe the COVID-19 virus event is presenting a shift in traditional thinking for many economists, individuals, and enterprises.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Friday, May 15, 2020

Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The precious metals market did almost nothing yesterday, and consequently we have relatively little to comment on today. There are two subtly bearish signs that we would like to feature, nonetheless.

The first subtly bearish sign is the change in the way the USD Index “topped” this month. In early April, and then in late April, the USDX reversed close to the 101 level and then moved lower in a decisive way, until declining below 99. This time has already proved to be different.

Friday, May 15, 2020

Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes the Russell 2000 is leading the way in terms of technical analysis and future expectations.  While the NASDAQ has rallied as a result of US Fed stimulus and foreign investor activity, the Russell 2000 has set up a very clear price resistance level near $131~132 that presents very real potential for a double-dip downward price trend in the near future.

Friday, May 15, 2020

Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good / Companies / Coronavirus Depression

By: Stephen_McBride

From No. 1. to BANKRUPT. In less than two years.

My uncle used to be a chef in Australia’s top restaurant, Banc. The place was always packed. Regular customers included media mogul Rupert Murdoch and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.

And it was run by top Irish chef Liam Tomlin. Lots of Banc’s customers were international businessfolk in town for work. And this was the place to go if you wanted to impress clients.

But then disaster struck. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, air travel ground to a halt. Banc went from Australia’s most-exclusive restaurant, to bankrupt in less than two years.

Friday, May 15, 2020

Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical expert Clive Maund explains why he believes gold and silver are powering up for a stratospheric advance.

The deflation and depression is right here, right now, and if you don't believe that, try asking some of the 30 million people who just lost their jobs in the U.S., or those who (used to) work in the catering and tourism industries.

The Federal Reserve is reacting to this situation by working to create hyperinflation, because it finds it preferable to a deflationary implosion. There are two reasons for this. One is that it enables the Fed to continue to fulfill its time-honored role, which is to transfer wealth from the rest of society to the 1%, and the other is it defers complete systemic collapse for a little longer.

The Fed has created a staggering amount of new money since this crisis started a few months ago to feed the debt monster. Its balance sheet has gone exponential and is expanding vertically, guaranteeing hyperinflation, which will begin the moment the velocity of money starts to pick up. Currently there is no velocity of money because the economy is dead, but if you print enough money to throw at it, as in countless trillions, you can get things moving again.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund explains why he's bullish on silver. The way you see silver now depends on whether you see a glass that is half empty or half full. If you are a pessimist by nature you will be grumbling about its underperformance relative to gold up to this point, but if you are an optimist, as we certainly are with regards to silver, you will see it as maintaining the opportunity to pick it up cheap before it really takes off higher in a big way, which as we will now proceed to see is a fast growing probability.

We have been wary of silver and silver investments in the recent past with good reason, because if another deflationary downwave hit, silver was in position to get really beaten back down into the dust, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. After being smashed in March when the stock market tanked, it staged a recovery, but started looking decidedly timorous as it approached a zone of heavy resistance in April and its unfavorably aligned moving averages. It was set up to take another severe beating in the event of the stock market tipping into another downwave, especially as it has been forced gradually lower by its falling 50-day moving average over the past several weeks.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

After flirting with the 10k level, bitcoin has retraced to find support around $8,700 as the long-awaited halving event passes.

This milestone sees the block reward sliced in half, effectively acting as a supply shock by reducing the profits of miners by 50% and halving the amount of new bitcoin that enters the network.

With central banks embarking on massive money printing operations to tide over stalled economies, this event makes bitcoin look increasingly attractive as a deflationary asset — and this is reflected by the increased presence of institutions.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

April job report shows a terrible US labor market. Coronavirus destroyed 20.5 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to almost 15 percent. How far does the number reflect reality – and what does it actually mean for the gold market?

Apocalypse in the US Labor Market
14.7 percent. Remember this value well, as it will go down in history. This is the official US unemployment rate for April calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate soared from 3.5 percent in February and 4.4 percent in March. As the chart below shows, the spike is really historic, as such high level has not been seen in modern history.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The US Dollar or Silver: Place Your Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Over the last 50 years there have virtually been no significant Silver rallies during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

If you are betting on a massive Silver rally while US dollar strength continues, then you have a very low probability of success. Similarly, if you bet on a massive Silver rally while the US dollar continues a long decline, then you have a great chance of success.

So, for the Silver investor, what the US Dollar index might do over the coming years, is a very important question to answer. No surprise here, since the US dollar has been 100% debased (of Silver).

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities / Politics / Pandemic

By: Dan_Steinbock

As China’s economy is rebounding, the belated COVID-19 mobilization in the United States and Europe has resulted in huge human and economic damage. New policy plunders could make the situation much worse globally.

My new report, “The Tragedy of Missed Opportunities,” focuses on the huge COVID-19 human costs and economic damage. Released by a global think-tank, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), it identifies the missed opportunities in the virus battle and its consequent human and economic costs " [link and here].

In the United States, the Trump administration's futile effort to “protect the economy” (read: the markets) has had disastrous repercussions. Yet, the White House continues to suppress science-based medical policies.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think there has been more hair torn out in frustration during this rally off the 2200SPX region lows than at almost any other time in market history. The frustration in trying to understand this market is ubiquitous.

As the unemployment numbers get worse and worse, the market continues to rally higher and higher. In fact, the futures rallied 70 points off the overnight low struck on Wednesday night even after the negative employment data was announced Thursday morning, and then rallied another 60 points off the overnight low struck on Thursday night despite the worst employment report in history being presented on Friday morning.

As I continue to peruse the Seeking Alpha public articles, I see more and more articles being published that tell everyone exactly what they already “know” as a certainty: We are setting up for a major crash in the market as we usher in the next Great Depression.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has identified a potential trade setup in QID that correlates to our ongoing analysis of the US stock market and our Advanced Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believe a major price inflection point is setting up in the US stock market within the next 48 hours that may prompt a price trend reversal in the NASDAQ and other major US stock market indexes.  This pattern correlates to a much longer-term Head-n-Shoulders pattern that is also setting up in the SPY.

Our belief is that technical traders should wait for confirmation of this setup before entering any new trades, yet we believe we will have confirmation of this setup within 3 to 5 trading days – given the urgency of the setup with our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believe a right-shoulder could be forming as the US stock markets push a bit higher in early trading this week. We believe the Fibonacci Price Acr’s are suggesting a major inflection point is preparing to disrupt price trends.

Just to be clear, this is a prediction, and as technical traders, we wait for confirmation before trading. This is the #1 issue with most traders. They jump the gun and buy into a trade idea before the price chart has confirmed and they lose a lot of money. Follow price, don’ try to lead it.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 'scientists' say that viruses are not alive. We'll for something that's 'technically' not alive it sure does behave like it is! Perhaps just as scientists will deem AI to be 'not alive' all the way until they take all of the jobs.

So lets leave the academic world behind, for their moronic obsession's has gotten us into this mess, certainties of solutions adopted by the likes of the UK and US to achieve 'herd immunity' when commonsense would have served our nations far better that of isolating and quarantining all those even suspected of being infected! Such as every flight entering the UK from virus infested China during January and February.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

The world has been hearing a lot about "homes" in recent months, as in -- "stay there" to help halt the spread of COVID-19.

At the same time, the sales of those homes in the U.S. have seen a significant slowdown.

No doubt about it, the coronavirus has played a big role. Yet, a notable divergence was taking shape in the housing market long before the current pandemic.

Financial history shows that it's happened before.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

High Degree of Risk in Overvalued Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Christopher_Quigley

The markets continue to remain overvalued, with a high degree of risk. A quick recovery is priced into every major index and if this should prove incorrect, expect a serious correction. I anticipate October will be crunch time.

If earnings guidance indicates continued recessionary conditions (negative GDP growth) and if results in the American Presidential election results are too close to call, I reckon there will be a swift re-pricing of all equity and bond assets. Either way, I suggest investors be ready and prepared, come the third quarter, for all eventualities.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Inflation, Deflation, or Both? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: MoneyMetals

The forces of deflation and inflation continue to tug at the economy simultaneously.

The pressures on both sides are huge.

On the deflation side, jobs, industrial demand, and the small business lifeblood of communities are contracting at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, trillions in credit card, auto, student loan, and mortgage debt that props up consumer spending and home values is at risk of imploding – and bringing markets down with it.

On the inflation side, the Federal Reserve is pumping more than $6 trillion into the financial system.

Meanwhile, all pretenses of needing to be fiscally responsible are being discarded in Washington as Congress pushes stimulus after stimulus with money it doesn’t technically have.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader’s historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.

Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.

And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those ‘man who predicted a new market crash now predicts… (blah blah blah)’ headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now.