Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“For twelve consecutive years, gold was up every single year whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears; strong dollar, weak dollar; political stability, political instability. It didn’t matter – strong oil, weak oil. . . Gold went up for twelve years. . . When gold embarks upon its next move, I believe that you will see that long wave take gold relatively quickly, but it will be measured in years, up to a $3000 to $5000 target that I believe is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” –– Thomas Kaplan, Electrum Group (Bloomberg’s Peer to Peer Conversations with David Rubinstein)
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 23, 2020
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Economic data shows that the coronavirus crisis will be severe. To soften the blow, Trump announced his support plans for the economy. Will the stimulus package help? And when will gold finally rise?COVID-19 Hits the US Economy
The global epidemic of COVID-19 has already hit the US economy. We start to see evidence how bad this crisis might be. First, retail sales dropped 0.5 percent in February. That’s the biggest drop in a year. But it will change quickly – just think about the number in March or April!
Second, the US consumer sentiment fell from 101 in February to 95.9 in March. Again, expect much worse readings in the future, as the number covers only the beginning of the month when Americans just started to acknowledge the coronavirus threat.
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.
Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.
SPX has tanked to the 38% Fib (not annotated on the chart) of the entire policy-manufactured bull market from 2009. While I think there is a big time rally out there ahead somewhere, there is fundamental reason to question the very makings of the bull market and how effective more of those same makings will be. Well before COVID-19 we had SPX due for a manic sentiment blow off and downside reversal. Now the opposite sentiment, Peak Terror, has been slammed into place.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Gold-Silver Ratio Tops 100; Silver Headed For Sub-$10 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
It doesn’t seem to matter what the ratio of gold to silver is, or how high it goes. Those who prefer silver always seem to think it’s going to reverse “soon”.
It might; maybe significantly so, too. But it doesn’t mean a thing. There are no fundamental reasons for the ratio to move up or down at any given time.
Actually, there is no reason to track it, either. Except that those who love silver think it is correlated in some way with gold; its not. And that silver is cheap relative to gold (it is), so it must be a better buy (its not).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 20, 2020
Why You Should Invest in the $5 Gold Coin / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Submissions
Making an investment is a great move. However, deciding on the kind of investment to make is not the easiest thing to do. There is the worry if the investment is the right one, or it will at all, bring on good returns. Investing in gold is a smart investment decision. The asset has been around for a while and been considered a very valuable form of wealth. Today, it is still one of the most valuable assets one can hold.The gold coin would be an excellent place to start. 5 US dollars gold coin prince buy and sell in the resale market can get you pretty good returns. Here are some of the factors that should motivate you to look in this direction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 20, 2020
Gold to Silver Ratio’s Breakout – Like a Hot Knife Through Butter / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s free analysis, we explained why a short-term corrective upswing in the S&P 500 was likely just around the corner. In today’s article, we’ll discuss how it’s likely to impact our silver price forecast. We’ll also make comment on the current opportunity in silver compared to the opportunity in the mining stocks.
Let’s start with a few questions that we received recently and let’s reply publicly for the benefit of all.
From the Readers’ Mailbag
Q: There have been statements circulating, mostly from those promoting physical precious metals, such as KITCO, etc., a lot more in the last days and weeks than usually, that the physical silver prices are at a great premium to the paper (futures) prices, such as $1.50- 2.00 above spot prices. They are claiming there is a serious present shortage. However, my investment advisor tells me that there is, in fact, currently a significant glut of physical silver.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Gold is Doing Its Job…Silver Will Come Back as a Safe-Haven Asset / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's always great to have you on and appreciate the time as always. How are you sir?
David Morgan: Well, Mike, I am doing well personally and the markets aren't, but I'm hanging in there and thanks for having me on the show.
Mike Gleason: Yeah, definitely overdue, and great to have you back. Well David, we are seeing tremendous volatility in markets. The coronavirus is getting the blame for a huge sell off in stocks and in epic rally and bond prices. Commodities, oil in particular, are getting hammered. Maybe the only thing predictable about the recent market action is the Fed's response. They did another emergency 50 basis point cuts and a lot of people expect them to cut another 50 basis points when the FOMC meets later this month. What is your take on the turmoil, David? Is this a short lived phenomenon and will markets recover as soon as the fear around the virus dissipates? Or we looking at the start of something more serious and maybe the bubble and equities is finally been popped?
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Fed Slashes Rates to Zero and Introduces QE in Response to COVID-19. Will Gold Rally Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Sunday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and restarted quantitative easing to stimulate economy hit by the pandemic of COVID-19. That’s already its second move prior to this Wednesday’s FOMC. What does it imply for gold?
It’s Serious, Really.
Winter is not coming. Winter is here already. The situation does not look too good. Although the epidemic seems on the way out in China and South Korea, the situation in Europe and the US is deteriorating quickly. As you can see in the charts below, the new daily cases are quickly rising, making the total number of infected people doubling each 3-4 days. And please note that the chart shows only confirmed cases – the true number of infected people is almost certainly larger, especially in the US, where shockingly low number of tests have been conducted.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2020
Gold Miners: Dismissing the inflation Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.
- The 2003 to 2008 bull rally ended with Huey’s “crown of thorns” as I used to call it back then. An H&S that formed at the end of a great inflationary phase in the markets.
- The great crash of 2008 (Armageddon ’08) was completely deserved because as I’ve belabored for so many years now, you don’t buy gold stocks in any heavy and/or long-term way during cyclical inflationary touts as gold barely keeps up with mining cost commodities and other assets/markets. The crash of Q4 ’08 cleaned out the inflation bugs and it did so with great cruelty and relentlessness. Only when every last bug who’d come aboard for the wrong reasons was exterminated did the bloodshed finally end.
- So who turned and burned first out of the ’08 (deflationary) bottom? Gold and then the miners, that’s who. They led the whole raft of commodities and stocks, which finally bottomed in March of 2009. Then another massive inflation trade ensued, before blowing out in Q1 of 2011. Then? What I called “Mr. Fat Head” formed as the first drop found support at 375, the sector rammed upward on a QE tout, then failed, taking out 460 on the downside and we proclaimed that was that. Welcome to the bear market.
- Then years of a bear crash and grind took HUI down to Mr. Fat Head’s measured target, which was around 100.
Monday, March 16, 2020
Covid19, Bear Markets and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Ron Struthers of Struthers' Resource Stock Report discusses the current market meltdown and the longer-term outlook for the markets and gold.
Although I know of some great companies and stocks out there, it is best just to wait. Markets are going a lot lower and investors in the main indexes and techs won't have a recovery in their portfolios for many, many years. Gold is being sold down too at times but the uptrend is still in place. We can expect a recovery in gold, gold stocks and junior miners this year and then off to new highs in a raging bull market. We will soon have zero interest rates and massive QE. The Fed announced they are pumping up to $175 billion per day in the repo market up from $150 billion. The Fed balance sheet is heading up again and will go at a faster pace now. The red arrow is where it's headed, off the chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 13, 2020
What's Next for Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future. The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events.
What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups. In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA-like mapping system. Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Gold Peeks Above $1,700 amid Coronavirus Fears and Market Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Sunday, Italy registered a huge jump in new cases of the COVID-19, the stock market plunged, while the oil market crashed. Tuesday morning, and Italy is on lockdown. Meanwhile, gold jumped above $1,700. What’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold Jumps Above $1,700
Last week, I wrote that:
from the fundamental point of view, the environment of fear, ultra low interest rates, weak equity markets and elevated stock market volatility should be positive for the yellow metal (…) the good news is that the markets expect further Fed’s interest rate cuts on the way – it lays the foundation for future gains in the gold market.
And indeed, we did not have to wait long for more gains. On Sunday, gold jumped briefly above $1,700, reaching another psychologically important level, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal made it to this price point for the first time since late 2012.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Gold to Silver Ratio Hits 100! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is testing its previous 2020 highs, but silver plunged anyway, which created a very special situation. Namely, the gold to silver ratio just jumped to the 100 level.
This may not seem like a big deal, because ultimately people buy metals, not their ratio, but it actually is a huge deal. This ratio is observed by investors and traders alike, as it tends to peak at the market extremes. Moving to the 100 level might indicate that we are at a price extreme. But what kind of extreme would that be if silver is declining while gold moved up?
Let’s take a closer look at the gold to silver ratio chart for details.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Silver Loses Its Mettle – Part 2 (Technicals) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Last week I talked about unrealistic expectations for the price of silver (see Silver Loses Its Mettle). My comments were centered on two specific factors: 1) silver’s primary role as an industrial commodity and 2) the fallacy of the gold-to-silver ratio.
Both of these items have their root in fundamentals, or lack of them.
In addition, I pointed out the fact that the price of silver has declined significantly in every single recession of the past fifty years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Two Scenarios for Precious Metals in the Unfolding Cronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Extreme volatility in the equity markets has investors wondering what to expect. Even the hardiest of stock market bulls are finally asking some serious questions about whether the top is in.
Stocks have long been priced for perfection and suddenly conditions are looking far from perfect. The coronavirus may be the pin which pricks the latest Fed-blown bubble.
Precious metals investors have been preparing against a rainy day. They may be less surprised by the turmoil in markets over the past couple of weeks. But there are still big questions about how metals prices might behave, especially if the current turmoil in markets should evolve into a full-blown financial crisis.
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Gold Hedging the Decline and Fall of a Currency / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
The baseline case for gold 320 AD
We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius – an inflationary episode Jack Whyte, a writer of historical fiction, skillfully addresses in his latest novel, The Burning Stone.
Set in Great Britain in the fourth century AD during the Roman occupation, The Burning Stone is a prequel to Whyte’s engaging, seven-book series on King Arthur – The Camulod Chronicles. Throughout the series, Whyte juxtaposes the rise of Arthur’s Camelot against Rome’s decline. This particular story is told through the lens of a young Roman from a wealthy family with banking, political and military interests who flees to Britain after his immediate family is murdered for reasons that remain a mystery for most of the novel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 09, 2020
Energy Complex Deflation Was All in the Charts / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Rambus_Chartology
I promised you on Friday that I would take an in-depth look at the energy complex in the Weekend Report. If there is one sector to define the possible deflationary event we’ve been discussing for the last several months or so oil is probably the most important commodity of all. Eventually we’ll know the cause in no uncertain terms, but the charts have been suggesting for a long time now that something is afoot and we need to pay attention.
Lets start by looking at the UNG, natural gas fund, as it has been leading the way lower. This first chart is a 10 month daily look which shows a 6 point diamond consolidation pattern which at the time of its development I thought would probably be a reversal pattern to the upside as the price for natural gas was already so low. As you know I usually try to take one position on the initial breakout and a second position on the backtest. I missed the initial breakout and the backtest failed to reach the bottom rail of the diamond so I never got positioned. The other important feature on this chart is the blue bearish falling wedge which we know shows up in fast moving impulse moves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 07, 2020
Gold and Silver Rally Back After Fed Emergency Interest Rate Cut / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks and months, our research team has continued to sing the praises of precious metals – particularly Gold and Silver. After last week’s dramatic selloff in precious metals (attributed mostly to margin call sales), both Gold and Silver rallied almost 3% on Tuesday, March 3 – the day the US Fed issued an emergency 0.50% rate cut.
We believe this move by the US Fed solidified a fear in the global markets that the central banks are preparing for a much broader economic contraction and attempting to front-run weakness by moving price rates lower. This will help to ease capital restrictions, liquidity across global markets and spur some global borrowing at a time when the Coronavirus may continue to weigh on global economies. Still, for skilled metals traders, this is likely the rocket fuel we need to see Gold rally above $1800 very quickly and for Silver to rally above $21 quickly as well.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 06, 2020
Gold Is the Strongest Currency Since the Coronavirus Scare / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Another tumultuous week in equity and interest rate markets has helped fuel a big pop in safe-haven demand for gold and silver.
The major market moving event was, of course, the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut on Tuesday. The Fed slashed its overnight funds rate by 50 basis points. But even before the Fed acted, the bond market had already forced its hand as yields on the 10-year Treasury note plunged to record low levels.
By Friday morning, the 10-year treasury yielded less than a paltry 0.90%. That represents almost no reward in exchange for the risk involved. Bond buyers are apparently willing to make a decade-long bet on U.S. government finances remaining solid and inflation remaining extremely low.
It’s still possible for bonds to experience capital appreciation if rates ultimately head to zero or below – as they have already done in other parts of the world. The Fed is almost certain to cut rates again. There is a good chance at least some portion of the yield curve will be at zero later in the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 06, 2020
Fed Panics over Coronavirus. What’s Next for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Not during a regular monetary policy meeting, but in a surprising move. But what are the implications for the gold market specifically?
Fed Cuts Interest Rates in Emergency Move
Last week, I wrote that the spread of the new coronavirus to Europe and the inversion of the yield curve make “the Fed more likely to step in and cut the federal funds rate, you know, “just in case”. And in yesterday’s surprise move, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in response to the coronavirus threat. The decision was unanimous and it was communicated in the FOMC statement as follows:
Read full article... Read full article...