Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 08, 2020
All Is Not Well in the Gold Paper Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) officials have loudly proclaimed there are plenty of gold bars in LBMA and COMEX vaults to meet surging demand from buyers.
Unfortunately for them, confidence is particularly fragile these days and cracks are starting to appear.
Which is why anxious officials there issued not one, but two memos last week in an attempt to reassure traders.
It’s interesting the LBMA, along with the COMEX, felt a need to put out back to back statements. If inventories are plentiful, both exchanges should be busy delivering gold, on time and without delay. The best way to build confidence is simply to meet buyers’ expectations.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2020
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Gold and the dollar certainly move not in a random relation to each other. The strength and direction of one taking the cue from the other changes over time, but what does it tell us about the present moment?
The key point with regard to the US currency is that it appears to have already ended its pullback and is now ready to soar well above its previous 2020 high.
How do we know that the pullback is most likely over?
Because the USD Index already rallied for (actually more than) two consecutive trading days.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
For years, many Gold Bugs (investors who’ve been advocating buying Gold and Silver at low prices as a hedge against future global economic risks) were shunned as conspiracy theorists and nuts. How could these people believe Gold and Silver were solid investments when the Global equities markets were rallying 5% a year consistently – what could go wrong?
Over the past two weeks, I have personally received multiple phone calls and emails from friends and associates asking how these people can suddenly ”buy physical metals”. In one case, this individual was purchasing Airline and Food Services stocks in late February thinking this move would be short-lived and telling me how the airlines would recover quickly after this is all over. Now, that person wants to know my secret contacts for buying physical metals.
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EWI
The coronavirus wasn't the cause of oil's 70% collapse. This was
Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.
Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.
Having said that, sentiment indicators are also valuable in providing clues about "what's next."
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Tuesday, April 07, 2020
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
A surge in coronavirus cases, an expansion of economic lockdowns, and an explosion in unemployment claims hit markets this week. But this deluge of bad news didn’t seem to catch investors by surprise.
Instead of crashing to new lows, the stock market held within a trading range and rallied yesterday following the release of a horrific jobs report.
It’s been a huge week for commodity markets as oil prices posted their biggest single day percentage gain ever Thursday, popping more than 25%. Oil prices lifted from their severely depressed $20 per barrel level after President Donald Trump met with oil executives and announced Russia and Saudi Arabia would agree to curtail production.
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Monday, April 06, 2020
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce. That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg. The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.
Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders. If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going. Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading. Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often. Carpe diem!
The leading and most-popular gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It was the first gold-stock ETF launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead. GDX’s $10.2b in net assets this week were running 34.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX’s recent raging action reveals what just transpired.
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Saturday, April 04, 2020
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, the US scored a sad record. The number of deaths related to the coronavirus in the US surpassed the death toll in China. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?
US Epidemiological Situation Is Grim
Just as people were overly optimistic before the stock market top, they can be too pessimistic right now. This is a real risk and we take it into account. However, the incoming data confirm our view expressed in the April edition of the Gold Market Overview that “the US will be severely hit” and that “the worst is yet ahead for the States”. Unfortunately, it turned out that we were right. On Monday, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States. So much for the claims that influenza is worse than coronavirus. The U.S. coronavirus-related deaths reached more than 4,000 deaths, which is behind only Italy and Spain! The US death toll has actually surpassed the number of deaths in China (much more populous country), as you can see in the chart below.
Friday, April 03, 2020
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Item: March 16, 2020. A huge poly-metallic (gold, silver, copper) mining operation in Mongolia "has suspended operations" after authorities "restricted the movement of goods and people within the country."
Item: March 17. In Peru, one of the world's largest primary silver-gold producers has its 4 mines "temporarily suspended" following the Government's Declared State of Emergency.
Item: March 18. A Canadian mining major suspends construction of a $4.7b copper mine upgrade in Chile affecting 15,000 workers.
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Thursday, April 02, 2020
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bearish in the short to medium term.
Whichever way you cut it, silver's chart looks bearish for the short to medium term, but against this we must set its rapidly improving COT structure and the mega-bullish silver to gold ratio (by all past standards).
Silver's 7-month chart is a rather grim picture. On it we see that key support failed this month, leading to a dramatic plunge to new lows, and this support has now become resistance. In addition we see that moving averages have swung into bearish alignment, with a bearish "death cross" having occurred about a week ago. The relief rally of the past week or so in sympathy with the relief rally in the broad stock market fueled by Fed intervention, that we predicted and played via leveraged silver ETFs and Calls, is therefore thought to be petering out and set to be followed by another probably steep selloff, congruent with another decline in the broad stock market, and a potentially heavy decline in the precious metals sector.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Thursday, the initial jobless claims rocketed to almost 3.3 million. Quite an unimaginable number. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?
One of the Most Scariest Things You Will See This Week
Would you like to see something scary? I guess not, but I'll show you anyway! But don’t worry: it will not be an microscope image of the coronavirus! Instead, I will present you a chart, a really scary chart… Ready to take a look?
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Mark Twain said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. It’s certainly true in both life and financial markets. Let’s explore how the recent history lessons apply to the precious metals.
The 2008 - Now Link
Let’s recount the similarities. We already had gold reversing on huge volume, and we saw it decline very strongly in the first week after the top. We already had another attempt to break above that high and we saw it fail. We also saw rhodium at about $10,000. We already saw silver and miners plunging much more severely than gold did. In fact, silver just plunged almost exactly as it did in 2008 during the analogous part of the slide.
All these factors make the current situation similar to how it was in 2008, at the beginning of one of the biggest declines in the precious metals sector of the past decades.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2020
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The historic action of the precious metals sector over the past few weeks has continued.
The strong recovery in GDX, GDXJ, and Silver has potentially invalidated the technical breakdown that occurred during the crash. It appears to be a failed breakdown.
Furthermore, Gold was looking vulnerable on the weekly, and monthly chart yet was able to slingshot back to $1700/oz. It is currently up $88/oz or 5.6% this month, while the S&P 500 is down 14%.
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Monday, March 30, 2020
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team continues to dig into underlying patterns and set up in the global markets to assist skilled technical traders in understanding the current Covid-19 virus event and other key technical data. Recently, we’ve authored a number of detailed research articles that we believe helped prepare traders for the events of the past 30 to 90+ days. If you missed them, please take a moment to review some of our critical market research posts:
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Friday, March 27, 2020
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Monday, the Fed introduced QE-infinity. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?
Fed Drops Bazooka… and Goes Nuclear Instead!
On Monday, the Fed pulled out an even larger bazooka than it did previously. Or, forget about the bazooka. The US central bank has gone nuclear! Indeed, the US central bank announced extensive new measures to support the economy. On March 15, the FOMC had announced it would purchase at least $500 billion of Treasury securities and at least $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. On Monday, the Fed expanded its asset purchasing program by including purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities in its agency mortgage-backed security purchases. In addition, the FOMC introduced unlimited quantitative easing. Yes, unlimited! The QE-infinity is back!
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? / Commodities / Gambling
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Last week was another week of wild market volatility for all asset classes, and precious metals were no exception.
Gold continues to be the least volatile metal. And it continues to hold up better than the chaotic stock market during most trading days. But it has experienced some downside in recent days.
Money Metals Exchange and other bullion dealers have experienced an unprecedented surge in demand for silver and gold coins, bars, and rounds. Many dealers have essentially sold out and/or refused to accept smaller orders because of fulfillment challenges.
The month of March could set an all-time record for sales of Silver Eagles. That will depend on whether the U.S. Mint is willing and able to supply coins to dealers in volumes that the market demands.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Pandemics and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the first part, we analyzed the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as the most deadly pandemic since the 1971, and the SARS pandemic, as the most similar to the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, we have witnessed several other pandemics in the recent decades. Let’s investigate them now and draw conclusions for the global economy and the gold market.
Let’s start with the epidemic of 2009 A/H1N1 flu, called also the swine flu. It originated in pigs from central Mexico and lasted from early 2009 to late 2010. It was highly contagious, as around 1.66 billion of people, or 24 percent of the then global population, contracted the illness. Luckily, the case-fatality rate was very small, around 0.001-0.0035 percent, which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people, around 10 times higher than the first estimates based on the number of cases confirmed by lab tests. The peak of interest in the swine flu occurred in April 2009, while the number of cases peaked in June 2009. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold did not rally to the hysteria about the swine flu. It is true that gold started in mid-2009 its great bull market, but the rally came after the peak in the swine flu outbreak, so it seems that it was rather a reaction to the Great Recession and the Fed’s quantitative easing.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“For twelve consecutive years, gold was up every single year whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears; strong dollar, weak dollar; political stability, political instability. It didn’t matter – strong oil, weak oil. . . Gold went up for twelve years. . . When gold embarks upon its next move, I believe that you will see that long wave take gold relatively quickly, but it will be measured in years, up to a $3000 to $5000 target that I believe is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” –– Thomas Kaplan, Electrum Group (Bloomberg’s Peer to Peer Conversations with David Rubinstein)
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Economic data shows that the coronavirus crisis will be severe. To soften the blow, Trump announced his support plans for the economy. Will the stimulus package help? And when will gold finally rise?COVID-19 Hits the US Economy
The global epidemic of COVID-19 has already hit the US economy. We start to see evidence how bad this crisis might be. First, retail sales dropped 0.5 percent in February. That’s the biggest drop in a year. But it will change quickly – just think about the number in March or April!
Second, the US consumer sentiment fell from 101 in February to 95.9 in March. Again, expect much worse readings in the future, as the number covers only the beginning of the month when Americans just started to acknowledge the coronavirus threat.
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.
Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.
SPX has tanked to the 38% Fib (not annotated on the chart) of the entire policy-manufactured bull market from 2009. While I think there is a big time rally out there ahead somewhere, there is fundamental reason to question the very makings of the bull market and how effective more of those same makings will be. Well before COVID-19 we had SPX due for a manic sentiment blow off and downside reversal. Now the opposite sentiment, Peak Terror, has been slammed into place.
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