Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).

The percentage arrived at by dividing the country’s total GDP by its total debt indicates the country’s ability to pay back its loans. The higher the percentage, the higher the risk of a country being unable to pay the interest on its debt, and therefore defaulting on its debt. (countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios typically have trouble paying off debts. Because they are a higher risk to paying loans back, creditors demand higher interest rates. If a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio becomes too extravagant, creditors may stop lending to it altogether)

While debt defaults are rare, they can and do happen. In 2010 the European Union faced a crisis when Greece threatened to default, potentially causing a domino effect, of highly leveraged nations like Spain and Italy doing the same, which likely would have destroyed the European Union. 

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

With his portfolio "solidly anchored" in silver and gold, sector expert Michael Ballanger opines on how bankers and politicians can manipulate markets.

As a child, I used to get quite excited at the prospect of having my English "Gran" read me the Hans Christian Andersen book "The Emperor's New Clothes." I found the tale fiendishly amusing, as the charlatan tailor uses lethal doses of flattery and mystery to beguile the poor sovereign into really believing that he is wearing the finest robes ever woven. There is even greater irony in the crowds he passes during a parade as they "Oooh" and "Awww" at his comic preening, knowing full well that he is making a fool of himself but too fearful to do anything but play along. The ending is sublime, with the ultimate moment of reckoning coming "from the mouths of babes," in the form of a young lad who finally blows the whistle with the innocent but true acknowledgement that, indeed, the emperor was parading pitifully through the town square clad only in his knickers.

I think that I admired and, in fact, envied the scallywag tailor in a manner not dissimilar to the way I am awed by this recent bevy of bankers and politicians. They stand in front of the cameras with their carnival barker bravado and serpentine smiles as they lift trillions of dollars from the future wallets of the taxpaying public and distribute it shamelessly among their capitalist cronies.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price).  Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders.  The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.

For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias.  A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

All Is Not Well in the Gold Paper Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) officials have loudly proclaimed there are plenty of gold bars in LBMA and COMEX vaults to meet surging demand from buyers.

Unfortunately for them, confidence is particularly fragile these days and cracks are starting to appear. 

Which is why anxious officials there issued not one, but two memos last week in an attempt to reassure traders.

It’s interesting the LBMA, along with the COMEX, felt a need to put out back to back statements. If inventories are plentiful, both exchanges should be busy delivering gold, on time and without delay. The best way to build confidence is simply to meet buyers’ expectations.

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The yellow metal and its fiat nemesis. Gold and the dollar certainly move not in a random relation to each other. The strength and direction of one taking the cue from the other changes over time, but what does it tell us about the present moment?

The key point with regard to the US currency is that it appears to have already ended its pullback and is now ready to soar well above its previous 2020 high.

How do we know that the pullback is most likely over?

Because the USD Index already rallied for (actually more than) two consecutive trading days.

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

For years, many Gold Bugs (investors who’ve been advocating buying Gold and Silver at low prices as a hedge against future global economic risks) were shunned as conspiracy theorists and nuts. How could these people believe Gold and Silver were solid investments when the Global equities markets were rallying 5% a year consistently – what could go wrong?

Over the past two weeks, I have personally received multiple phone calls and emails from friends and associates asking how these people can suddenly ”buy physical metals”. In one case, this individual was purchasing Airline and Food Services stocks in late February thinking this move would be short-lived and telling me how the airlines would recover quickly after this is all over.  Now, that person wants to know my secret contacts for buying physical metals.

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

The coronavirus wasn't the cause of oil's 70% collapse. This was

Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.

Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.

Having said that, sentiment indicators are also valuable in providing clues about "what's next."

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

A surge in coronavirus cases, an expansion of economic lockdowns, and an explosion in unemployment claims hit markets this week.  But this deluge of bad news didn’t seem to catch investors by surprise.

Instead of crashing to new lows, the stock market held within a trading range and rallied yesterday following the release of a horrific jobs report. 

It’s been a huge week for commodity markets as oil prices posted their biggest single day percentage gain ever Thursday, popping more than 25%.  Oil prices lifted from their severely depressed $20 per barrel level after President Donald Trump met with oil executives and announced Russia and Saudi Arabia would agree to curtail production.

Monday, April 06, 2020

Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce.  That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg.  The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.

Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders.  If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going.  Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading.  Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often.  Carpe diem!

The leading and most-popular gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  It was the first gold-stock ETF launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead.  GDX’s $10.2b in net assets this week were running 34.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX’s recent raging action reveals what just transpired.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, the US scored a sad record. The number of deaths related to the coronavirus in the US surpassed the death toll in China. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

US Epidemiological Situation Is Grim
Just as people were overly optimistic before the stock market top, they can be too pessimistic right now. This is a real risk and we take it into account. However, the incoming data confirm our view expressed in the April edition of the Gold Market Overview that “the US will be severely hit” and that “the worst is yet ahead for the States”. Unfortunately, it turned out that we were right. On Monday, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States. So much for the claims that influenza is worse than coronavirus. The U.S. coronavirus-related deaths reached more than 4,000 deaths, which is behind only Italy and Spain! The US death toll has actually surpassed the number of deaths in China (much more populous country), as you can see in the chart below.

Friday, April 03, 2020

How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Item: March 16, 2020. A huge poly-metallic (gold, silver, copper) mining operation in Mongolia "has suspended operations" after authorities "restricted the movement of goods and people within the country."

Item: March 17. In Peru, one of the world's largest primary silver-gold producers has its 4 mines "temporarily suspended" following the Government's Declared State of Emergency.

Item: March 18. A Canadian mining major suspends construction of a $4.7b copper mine upgrade in Chile affecting 15,000 workers.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bearish in the short to medium term.

Whichever way you cut it, silver's chart looks bearish for the short to medium term, but against this we must set its rapidly improving COT structure and the mega-bullish silver to gold ratio (by all past standards).

Silver's 7-month chart is a rather grim picture. On it we see that key support failed this month, leading to a dramatic plunge to new lows, and this support has now become resistance. In addition we see that moving averages have swung into bearish alignment, with a bearish "death cross" having occurred about a week ago. The relief rally of the past week or so in sympathy with the relief rally in the broad stock market fueled by Fed intervention, that we predicted and played via leveraged silver ETFs and Calls, is therefore thought to be petering out and set to be followed by another probably steep selloff, congruent with another decline in the broad stock market, and a potentially heavy decline in the precious metals sector.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Thursday, the initial jobless claims rocketed to almost 3.3 million. Quite an unimaginable number. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

One of the Most Scariest Things You Will See This Week

Would you like to see something scary? I guess not, but I'll show you anyway! But don’t worry: it will not be an microscope image of the coronavirus! Instead, I will present you a chart, a really scary chart… Ready to take a look?

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Mark Twain said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. It’s certainly true in both life and financial markets. Let’s explore how the recent history lessons apply to the precious metals.

The 2008 - Now Link

Let’s recount the similarities. We already had gold reversing on huge volume, and we saw it decline very strongly in the first week after the top. We already had another attempt to break above that high and we saw it fail. We also saw rhodium at about $10,000. We already saw silver and miners plunging much more severely than gold did. In fact, silver just plunged almost exactly as it did in 2008 during the analogous part of the slide.

All these factors make the current situation similar to how it was in 2008, at the beginning of one of the biggest declines in the precious metals sector of the past decades.

Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The historic action of the precious metals sector over the past few weeks has continued.

The strong recovery in GDX, GDXJ, and Silver has potentially invalidated the technical breakdown that occurred during the crash. It appears to be a failed breakdown.

Furthermore, Gold was looking vulnerable on the weekly, and monthly chart yet was able to slingshot back to $1700/oz. It is currently up $88/oz or 5.6% this month, while the S&P 500 is down 14%.

Monday, March 30, 2020

Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team continues to dig into underlying patterns and set up in the global markets to assist skilled technical traders in understanding the current Covid-19 virus event and other key technical data.  Recently, we’ve authored a number of detailed research articles that we believe helped prepare traders for the events of the past 30 to 90+ days.  If you missed them, please take a moment to review some of our critical market research posts:

Friday, March 27, 2020

Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

On Monday, the Fed introduced QE-infinity. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

Fed Drops Bazooka… and Goes Nuclear Instead!

On Monday, the Fed pulled out an even larger bazooka than it did previously. Or, forget about the bazooka. The US central bank has gone nuclear! Indeed, the US central bank announced extensive new measures to support the economy. On March 15, the FOMC had announced it would purchase at least $500 billion of Treasury securities and at least $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. On Monday, the Fed expanded its asset purchasing program by including purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities in its agency mortgage-backed security purchases. In addition, the FOMC introduced unlimited quantitative easing. Yes, unlimited! The QE-infinity is back!

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? / Commodities / Gambling

By: Submissions

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Last week was another week of wild market volatility for all asset classes, and precious metals were no exception. 

Gold continues to be the least volatile metal.  And it continues to hold up better than the chaotic stock market during most trading days. But it has experienced some downside in recent days. 

Money Metals Exchange and other bullion dealers have experienced an unprecedented surge in demand for silver and gold coins, bars, and rounds.  Many dealers have essentially sold out and/or refused to accept smaller orders because of fulfillment challenges.

The month of March could set an all-time record for sales of Silver Eagles.  That will depend on whether the U.S. Mint is willing and able to supply coins to dealers in volumes that the market demands.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Pandemics and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the first part, we analyzed the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as the most deadly pandemic since the 1971, and the SARS pandemic, as the most similar to the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, we have witnessed several other pandemics in the recent decades. Let’s investigate them now and draw conclusions for the global economy and the gold market.

Let’s start with the epidemic of 2009 A/H1N1 flu, called also the swine flu. It originated in pigs from central Mexico and lasted from early 2009 to late 2010. It was highly contagious, as around 1.66 billion of people, or 24 percent of the then global population, contracted the illness. Luckily, the case-fatality rate was very small, around 0.001-0.0035 percent, which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people, around 10 times higher than the first estimates based on the number of cases confirmed by lab tests. The peak of interest in the swine flu occurred in April 2009, while the number of cases peaked in June 2009. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold did not rally to the hysteria about the swine flu. It is true that gold started in mid-2009 its great bull market, but the rally came after the peak in the swine flu outbreak, so it seems that it was rather a reaction to the Great Recession and the Fed’s quantitative easing.