Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, July 06, 2018

Was That The Gold Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published Sun Jul 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Dealing with markets is more about psychology than it is about anything else. So, let’s begin this weekend’s analysis with a discussion of the psychology of the metals market.

There has been no trade more frustrating over the last several years than the metals. In fact, if you even remember back in 2015, the low we struck at the end of the year was at the completion of a year-long ending diagonal, which itself caused a great deal of frustration. So, to put this market action into perspective, within the last 42 months, we have spent approximately 32 of those months in overlapping and frustrating structures.

Friday, July 06, 2018

The End of Quantitative Easing and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

June was hot for the central banks. The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank announced that it would end its bond purchase program by the end of 2018. It would mean another step towards normalization of the crisis-era monetary policy, which would end quantitative easing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. What do these important developments imply for the gold market?

On June the 13th, the Fed raised interest rates for another 25 basis points. It was the second hike in 2018 and the seventh in this tightening cycle. The move was widely expected, so it did not shake the markets. However, the Fed’s statement was more hawkish than anticipated, as the U.S. central bank suggested two more rate hikes this year.

Friday, July 06, 2018

HUI Gold Stocks Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

The HUI along with most of the other PM stock indexes are at a critical point right here and now. Below is a combo chart we’ve following which has the UUP (The US Dollar Index ETF) on top and the HUI on the bottom. The UUP is building out a potential morphing bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern which would most likely give the PM complex some headwind if the price action breaks out top side. On the other hand if the rising wedge breaks down then the PM complex should have a strong tailwind at their backs. If the HUI can breakout above the top rail of its descending triangle that would be very bullish for the PM complex. As you can see the HUI and the UUP are trading at a critical inflection point right here.

Friday, July 06, 2018

Gold And Silver Precious Metals Price Outlook: Buy Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger details his forecast for precious metals markets in the second half of 2018. Given the impressive reversal in gold last Monday, which appeared to occur during the Asian and European trading sessions as opposed to the Crimex pit session, it looks like the precious metals are adhering to the well-broadcasted seasonality trade that has been fraught with random, rather than dependable, trading results, especially in the last four years. 2014 and 2016 had poor second-half performances, while 2015 and 2017 were marginally positive. What is reliable is that gold purchases in July have a greater chance for a successful trading outcome than any other month of the year, assuming, of course, that you took profits when gold popped in one of the following five months.

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

Bearish Sentiment Can Only Take Gold so Far / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Despite its lack of bullish fundamentals and the poor price action, Gold is now technically oversold and has reached strong support with sentiment approaching potentially extreme levels. The conditions are in place for a rally. That being said, bearish sentiment by itself is not enough to push Gold beyond a relief rally.

While the combination of the net speculative position (CoT) and daily sentiment index (DSI) was near its lowest point at the end of 2015, Gold enjoyed its best gains then because its fundamentals turned and remained bullish. Real interest rates declined as the Fed, after its December 2015 hike, did not hike for another 12 months despite a pickup in inflation.

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Gold Price Probable Short-term Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Gold and silver have been getting crushed recently along with emerging market stocks.

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

What Does the Loonie Have to Do with Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Jack Chan's updated charts for the precious metals markets include a look at how the Canadian dollar relates to gold and silver prices.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Crude Oil – Precious Metals Link and Its Implications / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

In recent days, oil bulls have accustomed us to fresh peaks. However, when we look more closely at the volume, their actions lose some of the glow. When we add the picture, which emerges from the relationship between crude oil and precious metals, doubts about the strength of the rally are getting even bigger. Is it possible that this interesting link tells us more about the future of black gold?

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Silver Bull Market Is Almost Here / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is running out of time and space (on the chart) to decide where it will go over the next months and years. The similarity of conditions to the early 80s suggests that silver could go into a multi-year bear market or continue its bull market:

Monday, July 02, 2018

Gold Moving Toward a Reset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the fundamentals behind gold and the markets. Gold is the ultimate safe haven, for two simple reasons. First, its total aboveground supply only grows 1.4% per year, no matter what anyone does (and even this rate of increase is starting to fall as production levels have peaked). Second, gold is final settlement for the payment of obligations; it is universally accepted as itself, in physical form, not needing to be translated into someone else's currency.

In the current financial asset mania, with confidence in markets and central banks very high, markets are not much interested in safe havens and gold has been languishing. When investors become more risk averse, gold will go on its next big run. Current sentiment and market positioning correspond to what is typically a price low historically.

Monday, July 02, 2018

CRB Commodity Index Chart Analysis Trend Forecast / Commodities / CRB Index

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – price has been in a downtrend since the 2011 high and the current price action looks corrective in nature. An ABC correction looks to be playing out with price still to put in a wave C high.

Bollinger Bands – price is back at the middle band and I am looking for support to kick in here.

Friday, June 29, 2018

Why the Saudis Won’t Prevent The Next Oil Shock / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Saudi Arabia is starting to panic, and is growing concerned that the growing number of supply disruptions around the world could cause oil prices to spike. Saudi Arabia is moving quickly to head off a supply crunch, aiming to dramatically ramp up production to a record high 11 million barrels per day in July, according to Reuters.

The increase, if it can be pulled off, would be an incredibly rapid ramp up in output, up more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) from May levels.

Friday, June 29, 2018

The Debt Threat and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the latest edition of the Market Overview, we have analyzed the risk related to the rising U.S. public debt and private leverage. This month, we will adopt a more global perspective. Until recently, thanks to the synchronized worldwide growth, it was easy to lose sight of the elephant in the room. But as U.S. interest rates have climbed in recent months and dollar has appreciated, we cannot ignore the debt threat any longer.

Indeed, the elephant is doing well. It is well-nourished and constantly growing. As the chart below shows, total non-financial debt has risen from 191 percent of global GDP at the end of 2001 to 210 percent before the financial crisis and to 245 percent today (the most recent data are for the end of September 2017).

Friday, June 29, 2018

Gold / Copper Miners Miners Interesting Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

The GDX/COPX ratio has broken above the 50 & 200 day moving averages and is still going, despite gold’s ignominious state at the moment.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Corn Commodity Price Analysis 28th June 2018 / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Austin_Galt

Pattern – a downtrend is in progress and I believe a “three strikes and you’re out” low formation is setting up with price currently tracing out its way to the third and final low.

Bollinger Bands – price is at the lower band and the question is does price trade down alongside this band or does support come in and send price back up? I lean to the latter.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Don’t Miss This Important Gold Price Signal! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Peter_Degraaf

It is generally agreed that in a Gold Bull Market, the gold producers lead the way, by outperforming gold bullion.  To examine this trend we visit Stockcharts.com and pull up a chart that compares mining stocks (GDX) to gold bullion (GLD).

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Will the Full Moon Mark a Turning Point for Gold and Silver? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses the theory that there is a relationship between the full moon and the price of gold.

For several months I have been beating the drum saying that there would be a tradable low for the precious metals in the June/July timeframe. The way to be fairly certain would be using the Commitment of Traders report and Daily Sentiment Indicator to mark an extreme of sentiment. I was looking for the DSI to go below 10 and the COTs to reflect major bearish sentiment among speculators.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Gold Cannabis Stocks Wednessday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Denali_Guide

FLAT LINE AFTER A HEART ATTACK, but what awaits come the Holidays?

So the GREEN is a Cannabis Index, which shows once investors got over their reluctance, they embraced the reality that Cannabis was and still is a coming trend.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Gold’s Signs for a June Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In yesterday’s intraday Alert, we explained why the short-term outlook for the precious metals changed from bearish to neutral and we took profits from our short positions. It was not just the fact that the price targets were reached for gold and silver. The key to the change in the outlook was seeing the confirmations from gold’s performance relative to the USD Index and from the mining stocks’ performance compared to the one of gold. In today’s analysis, we’ll take a closer look at what happened and what it means going forward.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

US Dollar Outlook & What it Means for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

We do not focus too much on the US dollar because in the big picture Gold usually leads movements in the dollar. As it pertains to the present, Gold’s failure to breakout (while the dollar made two new lows since the summer 2016 peak in Gold) implies that the the dollar, at worst is not going much lower anytime soon. At best, it could signal that the dollar’s bull market will resume. With that said, the dollar is approaching an interesting juncture and how it performs will certainly have some impact on the precious metals sector moving forward.

It's possible that the typical negative correlation between Gold and the dollar could strengthen in the weeks and months ahead due to a potential peak in Gold denominated against foreign currencies (FC).