Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
How Far Is it from North Korea to Italy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Almost 5500 miles ( 8,800 kilometers ) . That’s the distance between Pyongyang and Rome. It seems a lot, right? But not for gold, the truly global monetary asset. In recent days, the price of the yellow metal has immediately reacted to the developments around both North Korea and Italy. What has happened?
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Silver Trading in Tight $1 Range As Pressure Builds For A Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
- Trump Cancels Historic Summit with North Korea
– US 10-Year Falls Below 3%, Gold Jumps Back Above $1300
– “Inflation Overshoot Could Be Helpful” – Latest FOMC Minutes
– Gold Demand in Turkey as Lira falls sharply, true inflation near 40%
– EU Crisis Looming as Italy Plan Outright ‘Money Printing’ with ‘Mini-Bots’
– Silver Trading in Tight $1 range, Pressure Building for a Breakout (see chart)
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Three Drivers of Gold, Second Look / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Let’s take a second look at the drivers of gold. We have already stated that the three most important factors are: the real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and the risk aversion. Fair enough. But we have presented just the first approximation. We need to dig deeper. Why?
First, all these variables are connected together. Many analysts and investors who listen to them often make a mistake, assuming that the forces which push one driver have no effect on the other inputs into the value of gold. This is a dangerous delusion, which may expose investors to heavy losses.
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Saturday, May 26, 2018
Gold Junior Stocks GDXJ ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The junior gold miners have largely been shunned over the past year or so, condemned to listlessly drift near lows. Their stock prices have suffered serious collateral damage from stubbornly-bearish gold sentiment. But they are faring much better under the hood than their battered visages suggest, with their latest quarterly results revealing strong fundamentals. Juniors are ready to soar when gold sentiment turns.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Friday, May 25, 2018
Crude Oil: It’s Here! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous alerts we let you know how the situation in the crude oil was becoming increasingly bearish, but that it was not yet bearish enough to justify any action regarding the price. The risk was still too high to do so, and we explained that waiting for the confirmation was the preferable course of action. The confirmation has arrived.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
June Hike Is Coming. Will Gold Survive? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The message from the recent FOMC minutes is clear: brace yourself for the interest rate hike next month. Should gold bulls be worried? Gold’s reaction shows that not necessarily. You will find more details in our today’s analysis.
June Hike Is Virtually a Foregone Conclusion
Yesterday, the U.S. central bank published minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. What are the take-home messages from them?
Thursday, May 24, 2018
What if This Week’s Rally in Gold is Already Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we explained how it’s possible for the precious metals sector to move higher in very short term and at the same time still form the next local bottom close to $1,250. The key part of the analysis was that this week’s turning point may turn out to be declines’ starting, not ending. We also argued that we could see a small decline in the USD Index and that might be enough to cool down traders’ emotions. It seems that we have seen just that, and now the question is: how soon can we expect gold to decline?
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
A GOLD Bull market is beginning / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
Hello everyone!
I hope the sun is shining wherever you find yourself!
Things are looking up for GOLD at last!
We may well have just created a very important low this week, it is now time to focus on this turn to see if we can nail the beginning of this turn.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Is It Time To Just Sell All Your Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
What’s Next for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold failed to breakout in the spring and recently lost weekly support at $1310. Meanwhile, the gold stocks have held up well in recent weeks (considering Gold) but still have much to prove. Silver couldn’t rally much when its net speculative position was at an all time low. The question now is where do things go from here. The price action is not bullish but with a Fed hike looming and negative sentiment, Gold could be poised to snapback after testing lower levels.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Mayday, Mayday, Gold Price Is Sinking! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold dived below $1,300 last week, to many analysts’ surprise. They are panicking right now. But you do not have to. Let’s read our article and find out what is happening in the gold market!
Didn’t we tell you?
We don’t want to be like these annoying guys who always utter “didn’t we tell you?”. But, well, this is our job after all: to provide you with the finest fundamental outlook of the precious metal market. And here is what we wrote in Gold News Monitor on May the 15th:
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Gold, Silver & US Dollar Updates with Review of Latest COTS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund looks at gold, silver and the dollar after reviewing the latest COT Charts. Gold's breach of nearby support last week freaked out some longs of a nervous disposition, but it did no technical damage of any significance, as we can see on our latest 3-year shown chart below on which we can observe that it is still above important supporting trendlines. This chart shows that last week's drop was just a "storm in a teacup." Recall that the pattern that has been forming since mid-2016, for nearly two years now, is the Right Shoulder of its giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom that may be viewed on the 8-year chart in the last Gold Market update.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
How Close Are We to Oil Independence? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Rodney_Johnson
Almost two years ago, the Saudis acknowledged they had a problem. The price of oil was too low.The oil-rich county had fought a surge in supply from American frackers by opening the taps, and the move pushed oil prices to their lowest level in decades.
Even though the Saudis and other OPEC members still held onto market share, they were bleeding cash because their government budgets were modeled on oil closer to $80 than $30.
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Monday, May 21, 2018
Gold’s Near-term Downside Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The price of gold moved considerably lower in the past several weeks, despite the pause that we saw in the final part of the previous week. The yellow metal moved below $1,300 and confirmed this move by several daily closes below it. Moreover, gold confirmed the breakdown below the rising medium-term support line that’s based on the daily closing prices of December 2016 and December 2017 lows. Consequently, gold’s likely to move lower and the question is how low can gold decline in the near term.
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Sunday, May 20, 2018
Looking for a Turn in Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, reflect on market factors that are driving current fluctuations in the gold price.
For nearly four months now, gold has been pressured lower by a rising dollar; the inverse correlation has been almost exact. Gold has dropped 5.2% from its January 25, 2018 close of $1,362 to its May 16 close of $1,291.50. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has risen 5.4% from this year’s low close of 88.50 on February 15, 2018, to its close on May 16 at 93.26. In the past few days, shorts have jumped in to press their luck, judging from the increase in CME open interest while the price is falling.
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Saturday, May 19, 2018
GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks are still largely grinding sideways, mired in a bearish sentiment wasteland. Traders tend to assume low stock prices must be righteous, reflecting weak fundamentals rather than poor psychology. But once a quarter earnings seasons’ bright fundamental sunlight parts the obscuring fogs of popular sentiment. The gold miners’ just-reported Q1’18 results prove they remain deeply undervalued.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Saturday, May 19, 2018
Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To Harry Meghan Royal Wedding? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Welsh gold and the misconceptions surrounding it – GoldCore speak to China Central Television (CCTV)
– Welsh gold mired in misconceptions, namely that it is ‘rarest’ and most ‘sought after’ gold in world
– Investors to be reminded that all mined gold is rare and homogenous
– Nothing chemically different between Welsh gold and that mined elsewhere
– Investors led to believe Welsh gold is more valuable, despite lack of authenticity in some Welsh gold products
– Peak gold: We tell Beijing’s largest TV network that Welsh gold is limited but so too is gold everywhere
Friday, May 18, 2018
Three Drivers of Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We cannot value gold. It does not generate any cash flows, which we could discount. But it doesn’t mean that the price of gold changes randomly. Market sentiment is powerful in the precious metals market – but the same applies to other markets (after all, humans are emotional creatures). However, it does not operate in a void. Actually, there are some important fundamental drivers at work. Just like in the cosmos. It seems to be empty space – but gravity works there. Similarly, the precious metal market seems to be very emotional and without any logic, but when you look closely, you will discover important forces in action. What are they?
Friday, May 18, 2018
Natural Gas Flashes Buy Signal with Cycles Confirming / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been following the energy sector quite intensely with Oil and Natural Gas making an impressive move. A little known seasonal pattern in Natural Gas has setup recently and we have alerted our members to this play which is already up over 16%. Our advanced price modeling systems and Adaptive Dynamic Learning Cycles have recently triggered another buy entry point which we share in this article but first look at the seasonal chart showing the month which Natural Gas is generally strong.
Friday, May 18, 2018
We FINALLY Got Our Pullback In Gold GLD ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
As the title notes, we are finally getting that 5th wave down in the GLD after weeks of meandering. Moreover, not only are we getting that 5th wave down, the 3rd wave within this 5th wave down extended beyond the 3.618 extension of waves i and ii down. And, such a strong extension is certainly doing its job in getting even more people souring on this complex.
Moreover, as I am reading out there in the blog-world, it seems many are turning quite negative with gold breaking below its 200DMA. Clearly, this is EXACTLY what we want to see to strike a bottom in the complex.
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