Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, August 24, 2020

The 100% Gold Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

When I founded BMG Group Inc. (formerly Bullion Management Group Inc. – BMG) over 20 years ago, I thought that my main challenge would be to get approval for our first fund from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). My premise was that there was no approved way for retail investors to hold bullion in their RRSPs and other registered accounts. In addition, I wanted to structure the fund in a way that would not compromise the three fundamental attributes of bullion: liquidity, no counterparty risk and independent of management skills. Upon investigating closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and proxies, such as mining stocks and futures contracts, I found that all of these structures either compromised the liquidity of physical bullion or were not bullion at all, and were therefore dependent on counterparties for their performance. Other attributes compromised the direct ownership of bullion due to dependence on a portfolio manager to make trading decisions and to manage the asset. In addition, bullion leasing and leverage could distort the pure performance of bullion.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Was That the Top in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It could have been. But what is more likely, it could have been the final pre-plunge top in case of the mining stocks. Why? Because the history tends to rhyme, and the verses appear more similar to what we already “read” in the mining stocks than they what we can see on the gold market.

Before digging into details, we would like to quote what we wrote on mining stocks on Monday:

Back in March, gold moved back to its previous highs (in fact it moved slightly above it) before topping and right now, it’s consolidating lower. Still, we should keep in mind that there’s also the possibility that gold won’t repeat the March performance to the letter and history will rhyme instead.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Gold Price - See What This Fibonacci Ratio Says About Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

A Fibonacci .618 retracement is a common reversal point in the markets

Fibonacci numbers follow a sequence that begins with 0 and 1, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on).

After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1; its ratio to the next lower number is approximately 1.618 to 1.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Beyond the Surreal: Navigating the Precious Metals Minefield / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

The story of how an inner city liquor store grew its business serves as an example of what sector expert Michael Ballanger calls " a compelling revelation of 'academics versus practicality.'"

In watching the travesty of disinformation, misinformation and moral hazard formation ongoing in the global financial markets, I am immediately reminded of a case study from my university days of which I was a part, the nature of which required that our team analyze a local business and make specific recommendations designed to improve it. Seeing as our campus was located in the Saint Louis inner city, surrounded on three sides by a ghetto second only to Detroit's in crime and murder, and on the fourth by Interstate 70, it was to no one's surprise that the "local business" we were to dissect was a package liquor outlet run by a large and very angry African American gentleman by the name of Marcus Thicke.

Friday, August 21, 2020

Buffett’s Indicator tells him to buy GOLD / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Warren Buffett did what he said he’d never do, and that is buy gold - not the physical metal, nor an ETF, but a gold mining stock. Buffett and/or his holding company's managers chose ABX, as it is known in Toronto, or GOLD, on the New York exchange. The surprising trade is highly symbolic given Buffett’s previous fervently anti-gold public statements.

Last Friday the Oracle of Omaha’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKB) picked up about 20 million shares of Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX), presumably on the strength of the second largest gold company’s growth potential, and the fact it pays a $0.08/share dividend.

“If you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end,” the Oracle famously wrote in a 2011 annual shareholder letter, joking about a big pile of gold that “you can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”

Thursday, August 20, 2020

The Gold and Silver Dam Breaketh / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Ask precious metals' holders and chart technicians what in the last 6-8 weeks stands out in their mind and they will point to the breakout of gold and silver above areas which had contained them for almost a decade.

Gold rocketed without pause to $2,070. Silver, though still well below record nominal dollar highs, sliced through $26, which was supposed to be a lid on prices until next year.

A litany of "price pullers" we've long discussed in our essays – government deficit spending, lagging metals' production vs. exploding demand, and an almost complete absence of big discoveries have all played a part.

Thursday, August 20, 2020

The Case for a Platinum-Plated Metals Portfolio / Commodities / Platinum

By: MoneyMetals

Do precious metals still represent good value?

With gold just coming off a new all-time high above $2,000/oz and silver having more than doubled off its March bottom, some investors may be wary of entering these markets right now.

However, when adjusted for inflation, when measured against the stock market, or when compared to total money supply, a strong case can be made that gold is not yet overvalued – and that silver remains undervalued.

Investors who are seeking an even more deeply undervalued opportunity within the metals space should take a look at platinum.

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Silver Price Rockets to Multi-Year Highs, Targets $169 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jason_Hamlin

After nearly 7 years of consolidation and mostly sideways trading, the silver price is finally experiencing a powerful breakout. It did not take long after breaking above the psychologically-important $20 level for silver to climb another nearly 50% toward $30 per ounce.

The silver price has since corrected by 11% to the current price of $26.40, but remains up more than 45% in three weeks. Remarkably, silver is now up more than 125% from the March lows and we see significantly more upside ahead.

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Gold After US Dollar Dominance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Today, if gold had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at around $7 758 [(29568/78.78)*20.67]. Yet, it only has an all-time high of about $2 089.

In 1973 gold was in a similar type of position. The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If gold had scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of about $280 (13.55*20.67), yet its peak at that time (the beginning of 1973) was only around $70.

Monday, August 17, 2020

Gold & Silver Detailed Trend Forecast 2020 and 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This research article may get a bit technical, so please excuse us in advance if we ramble on about Measured Moves, Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs, and other technical jargon.  Our goal is to share with you our expectations for Gold and Silver near the end of 2020 and out into early 2021.

ARCS, MEASURES & THE US DOLLAR

Our first observation to share with you today is the potential for the  “Measured Price Moves” in Gold and Silver to continue.  We’ve seen near-perfect price advances over the past 8+ months relating to these Measured Moves.  In Gold, the Measured Move equates to about $263.20.  In Silver, the measured move equated to about $5.40. 

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Gold $2,100 and Silver $30. What Next?  / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

On August 7, gold in U.S. dollars, notched its all-time nominal high of $2,089 (It's been printing new highs in many other currencies for quite awhile now.)

Silver peaked (so far) at $29.92. After a few days of attempting to scale $30, it gave up the ghost and dropped a stunning $4.90 intraday, closing down $3.20.

Not satisfied with punishing the bulls during the day session, silver proceeded to drop another $2.30 in overnight Forex trading, but next day opened virtually unchanged just below $26!

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Forex, Gold, Silver + 5 More Metals Market Forecasts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more

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Our friends at Elliott Wave International (EWI) can help -- free.

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Precious Metals Are in the Danger Zone, 2020 Forecast Issue Revisited / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger runs the numbers on current and future values of gold and silver given current economic conditions.

"I'd rather be a gold bug then a paper worm." —Anonymous

In late 2019, as I was laying out the framework for the 2020 GGMA Forecast Issue, there was only one four-letter word that kept cropping up and that word was D-E-B-T (actually there were two, but one was what I mutter every time the auto spellcheck completes a word I do not intend to type).

Long before COVID-19 and government-imposed lockdowns cratered the global economy, I was formulating the future price of gold based upon the layers upon layers of sovereign, corporate and household debt sloshing around the world. I deduced that since faith in fiat currencies was rapidly evaporating, then the only remaining collateral left carrying the ability to underpin the gargantuan sovereign debt beast was gold.

Saturday, August 15, 2020

With Gold Above $2,000, Bulls Triumph! What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The triumph of the gold bulls has finally come, as gold jumped above $2,000. But what’s next for the shiny metal?
Well, that escalated quickly! At the end of July, when gold was still below $1,900, I went on a short vacation, and when I’m back, the yellow metal is above $2,000. Whoa, it was a real blitzkrieg! Just please take a look at the chart below – as you can see, gold soared in early August, surpassing the psychologically important level of $2,000 per ounce.

Friday, August 14, 2020

Silver May Be Overextended – But It’s STILL Cheap / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Silver prices aren’t just rising; they’re erupting!

Silver has been ascending at a far steeper rate than the climactic move of 2010-2011 which briefly brought prices back up to all-time nominal highs.

Adding a 20-week rate of change (ROC) indicator to the silver futures chart below shows prices gaining 122.4% over that period – far exceeding the rate of ascent of the last big silver spike.

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight lets take a look at the bad boy of the PM complex, silver. If you’ve been following silver for any length of time then you know it can be aggravating at times as we’ve seen fairly recently when gold and the PM stocks have been running pretty hot to the upside while silver just sat there doing its job of frustrating as many investors in the PM complex as it could. Finally, three weeks ago silver broke out above overhead resistance and decided to join the party.

Tonight I’m going to start with a few long term charts for silver. It’s these long term charts we need to understand first so we know where silver has been trading and where it is likely to go based on the Chartology which has been guiding us pretty well so far since what will now be called the March 2020 low in the years ahead.

This first chart is a ratio combo chart which has the GOLD:SILVER ratio on top with gold just below followed by silver with the XAU on the bottom. Everyone has their own interpretation of how they like to analyze that ratio. I have my own thoughts on how I like to view the ratio chart and how to use it in deciding if the PM complex is in a bull or bear market. We’ve discussed many times is the past that knowing if you’re in a bull or bear market is the single most important aspect of trading the intermediate to long term trends.

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Hyper-Deflation Capital Destruction And Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

When aggregate demand contracts, debts default, credit tightens, the velocity of money plunges, deflation ensues and capital, i.e. circulating credit and debt, is destroyed. In the extreme state of hyper-deflation, central bankers try to offset fatally accelerating capital destruction by creating even more money to replace that which is being destroyed.

The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding.

Cointelegraph, July 31,2020

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Silver Took the Stairs to $21 in 2008, Took the Escalator to $29 in 2010. Is Silver on the Elevator to the 120th floor today? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Robert_Singer

Disclaimer: The following is my opinion and is not intended as investment advice. I don’t know anything about bulls, bears, cycles, resistance, daily, weekly, monthly charting, micro or macro fundamentals and especially indicators like the EROI.

I have been waiting for Silver to take off since 2005 when I was sure the economy and the dollar were going to collapse. [1]

The economy should have gone south in 1980 when the Twins showed up. The twin deficits is a phenomenon wherein both the federal government’s balance and that country’s trade balance nosedive into negative territory.

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Has Gold's Upward Drive Come to an End? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

Following the July 08, 2020 Market Minute titled: What is driving gold up?. We highlighted the main factors pushing gold prices upward. Are those factors still there? And if so, how much further is the precious metal going to rise (Chart 1)?

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Silver Notches Best Month Since 1979 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Silver prices continue to gain this week, rising off the biggest monthly rally since 1979, amid a slew of factors that are pushing precious metals higher. 

As of this writing, silver was nudging $27 an ounce, adding more momentum to its steep climb above $20, which began around the third week of July.  

Silver last month gained an astonishing 35%, as investors sought shelter from pandemic turmoil and low or negative interest rates, while industrial demand for the metal recovered in some parts of the world. Its July performance, seen in the hockey stick-shaped graph below, makes silver the darling of the commodities complex.