Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 16, 2020
Precious Metals Are in the Danger Zone, 2020 Forecast Issue Revisited / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger runs the numbers on current and future values of gold and silver given current economic conditions.
"I'd rather be a gold bug then a paper worm." —Anonymous
In late 2019, as I was laying out the framework for the 2020 GGMA Forecast Issue, there was only one four-letter word that kept cropping up and that word was D-E-B-T (actually there were two, but one was what I mutter every time the auto spellcheck completes a word I do not intend to type).
Long before COVID-19 and government-imposed lockdowns cratered the global economy, I was formulating the future price of gold based upon the layers upon layers of sovereign, corporate and household debt sloshing around the world. I deduced that since faith in fiat currencies was rapidly evaporating, then the only remaining collateral left carrying the ability to underpin the gargantuan sovereign debt beast was gold.
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
With Gold Above $2,000, Bulls Triumph! What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The triumph of the gold bulls has finally come, as gold jumped above $2,000. But what’s next for the shiny metal?
Well, that escalated quickly! At the end of July, when gold was still below $1,900, I went on a short vacation, and when I’m back, the yellow metal is above $2,000. Whoa, it was a real blitzkrieg! Just please take a look at the chart below – as you can see, gold soared in early August, surpassing the psychologically important level of $2,000 per ounce.
Friday, August 14, 2020
Silver May Be Overextended – But It’s STILL Cheap / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Silver prices aren’t just rising; they’re erupting!
Silver has been ascending at a far steeper rate than the climactic move of 2010-2011 which briefly brought prices back up to all-time nominal highs.
Adding a 20-week rate of change (ROC) indicator to the silver futures chart below shows prices gaining 122.4% over that period – far exceeding the rate of ascent of the last big silver spike.
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight lets take a look at the bad boy of the PM complex, silver. If you’ve been following silver for any length of time then you know it can be aggravating at times as we’ve seen fairly recently when gold and the PM stocks have been running pretty hot to the upside while silver just sat there doing its job of frustrating as many investors in the PM complex as it could. Finally, three weeks ago silver broke out above overhead resistance and decided to join the party.
Tonight I’m going to start with a few long term charts for silver. It’s these long term charts we need to understand first so we know where silver has been trading and where it is likely to go based on the Chartology which has been guiding us pretty well so far since what will now be called the March 2020 low in the years ahead.
This first chart is a ratio combo chart which has the GOLD:SILVER ratio on top with gold just below followed by silver with the XAU on the bottom. Everyone has their own interpretation of how they like to analyze that ratio. I have my own thoughts on how I like to view the ratio chart and how to use it in deciding if the PM complex is in a bull or bear market. We’ve discussed many times is the past that knowing if you’re in a bull or bear market is the single most important aspect of trading the intermediate to long term trends.
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
Hyper-Deflation Capital Destruction And Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When aggregate demand contracts, debts default, credit tightens, the velocity of money plunges, deflation ensues and capital, i.e. circulating credit and debt, is destroyed. In the extreme state of hyper-deflation, central bankers try to offset fatally accelerating capital destruction by creating even more money to replace that which is being destroyed.
The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding.
Cointelegraph, July 31,2020
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
Silver Took the Stairs to $21 in 2008, Took the Escalator to $29 in 2010. Is Silver on the Elevator to the 120th floor today? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Robert_Singer
Disclaimer: The following is my opinion and is not intended as investment advice. I don’t know anything about bulls, bears, cycles, resistance, daily, weekly, monthly charting, micro or macro fundamentals and especially indicators like the EROI.
I have been waiting for Silver to take off since 2005 when I was sure the economy and the dollar were going to collapse. [1]
The economy should have gone south in 1980 when the Twins showed up. The twin deficits is a phenomenon wherein both the federal government’s balance and that country’s trade balance nosedive into negative territory.
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
Has Gold's Upward Drive Come to an End? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the July 08, 2020 Market Minute titled: What is driving gold up?. We highlighted the main factors pushing gold prices upward. Are those factors still there? And if so, how much further is the precious metal going to rise (Chart 1)?
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Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Silver Notches Best Month Since 1979 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Silver prices continue to gain this week, rising off the biggest monthly rally since 1979, amid a slew of factors that are pushing precious metals higher.
As of this writing, silver was nudging $27 an ounce, adding more momentum to its steep climb above $20, which began around the third week of July.
Silver last month gained an astonishing 35%, as investors sought shelter from pandemic turmoil and low or negative interest rates, while industrial demand for the metal recovered in some parts of the world. Its July performance, seen in the hockey stick-shaped graph below, makes silver the darling of the commodities complex.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Silver Shorts Get Squeezed Hard… What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The extraordinary run up in precious metals markets continues as silver makes some truly epic percentage gains while gold pushes further into record territory.
As of Friday morning, gold prices had pulled back but are still up 3.1% for the week to trade at $2,044 per ounce. Gold is advancing now for the ninth consecutive week, with the biggest pops occurring over the past three.
Silver, meanwhile, is going nearly vertical, today’s pullback to $28 notwithstanding. This week alone, the white-hot metal shot up a staggering 18% through Thursday’s trading to close at over $29 an ounce.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2020
A Tale of Two Precious Metal Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
This week gold prices have smashed one record after another, well surpassing the previous high set in 2011, of $1,920 an ounce.
At time of writing, spot gold’s last bid was $2,064.10.
The usual suspects are behind the surge, ie., worrisome covid-19 infections, geopolitical concerns especially US-China tensions over trade (President Trump tried to force China-owned TikTok into selling its US operations) and the South China Sea, fears of inflation on the back of unlimited monetary stimulus, and low interest rates worldwide.
Bullion prices have climbed more than 30% year to date, as investors choose gold as a safe haven amid widespread economic uncertainty created by the pandemic. They believe gold will hold its value better than other assets such as stocks and bonds.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2020
How Does the Gold Fit the Corona World? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
For a long time, pundits talked excitedly about the rapid, V-shaped recovery. I never shared this view, finding it too optimistic and without basis in reality. Like Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park, I hate being right all the time, but it really seems that I was right about this issue. According to the July World Flash report by IHS Markit, we can read that “the new wave of infections has reduced the probability of a V-shaped cycle (…) and increased the risk of a double-dip recession (W-shaped cycle).”The problem is the rising number of Covid-19 infections in large economies such as Brazil, India, or the United States, as the chart below shows (there is also the resurgence in cases in other countries, such as Australia or Japan, although the absolute numbers of infections are smaller).
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Tuesday, August 11, 2020
A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
The term ‘unprecedented’ has been used to explain 2020 throughout the world. Whether it be the simultaneous triple bubble that is currently being experienced within equity, bond, and real estate markets, or the volume of quantitative easing deployed by central banks in order to combat Covid-19, 2020 has been an unprecedented year thus far to say the least. Safety and stability of capital has been difficult to find, as many volatility indicators, such as the VIX, continue to point towards future uncertainty. Gold, however, has gone against the grain in 2020, as it has continued its strong historical performance and has done an excellent job at preserving wealth. As of July 31, 2020, gold has appreciated 29.02% in US dollars (USD) and 33.20% in Canadian dollars (CAD). These results should not come as a surprise to investors, as gold has increased an average of 10.6% (USD) and 9.8% (CAD) since 2000. With tremendous upside available for gold amid future uncertainty within the markets, and a proven historical track record of strong performance, it is surprising that gold does not hold a larger allocation size within most investor portfolios.
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Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to go over some PM charts looking for a possible place for our current impulse move to find some strong resistance that could lead to the next consolidation phase. It’s not going to be easy as there are several possibilities that could work. Lets put the Chartology to work and see what we come up with.
There was something fairly rare last week that happened to gold which sliced through its 2011 all time high at 1920 like a hot knife through butter. Normally when an old high is reached there is usually some initial resistance even if the breakout is going to occur. Many times we’ll see a small consolidation pattern form just below the old high that will give the stock the energy it needs to finally takeout overhead resistance. There is another way that an important resistance line can be taken out and that is with a gap which doesn’t show up on the gold chart but there is a gap on GLD close to the 2011 high.
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Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Canadians, at least those fortunate enough to enjoy a long weekend, returned to their desks Tuesday to watch gold prices crack another milestone - $2,000 per ounce - as the spectacular summer rally for the precious metal continues.
At time of writing, spot gold’s last bid was $2,019.20, marking a $42 gain since Monday’s trading session. Silver prices also experienced a major leg up, with spot silver posting a $1.68 increase to $26.01, as of 17:05 Eastern time - a 7-year high.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you have been following our research into Gold and Silver over the past years, then you were already prepared for the recent rally that has taken many investors by surprise. This year, 2020, Gold and Silver are set up to have their best year of price appreciation over the past 40+ years. It is no consequence that this is taking place right now. Our cycle research and our predictive modeling systems have helped us stay well ahead of this move. In fact, way back in early 2019, we were already warning this type of price move would take place and suggesting a target price level of $3750 for Gold was not out of the question.
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Friday, August 07, 2020
Silver Bull Market Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Now, I have not gone raving silver bug on you. The title says “silver bull” because that is what silver is in, a bull market by definition of having taken out the 2016 high of 21.23. We targeted that point as a cyclical bull market gateway, silver cut through it like a knife through warm butter… and there you have it. A key higher high. I don’t apologize for any of the above. It is fact.
So let’s catch up on Gold’s wild little bro as it hangs tough below the NFTRH ultimate cyclical bull target, which has been the 24-26 long-term resistance zone (per the 3rd chart below). Silver made a violent hit and recoiled, but…
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Friday, August 07, 2020
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
This inflation-adjusted silver chart (from macrotrends.net) tells an interesting story:
The level around $18 appears to have been very critical, especially since it is the 1920 and 1968 inflation adjusted high.
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Friday, August 07, 2020
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
First, we want to say “It took long enough!” and we’re happy to see this upside move in Natural Gas. We had been calling this move for many months. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems suggested the extended bottoming formation in Natural Gas was an excellent opportunity for skilled technical traders. Today’s big move suggests the downside price pressure is dissipating and a new bullish price trend may push Natural Gas prices above $2.85 quickly.
Our research team spotted this potential setup in April and May articles where we correctly predicted an NG rally in April (it did!) and new upside targets for NG in May. We have been keeping our subscribers up-to-date with UNG as this bottom has played out.
The upside move in late April 2020 was a cycle move that we expected to continue a bit higher. It still presented a very nice opportunity for skilled traders to capture a 35% upside price swing. The current, deeper, price bottom near $1.43, represents a very deep rotational bottom in Natural Gas and the current upside price move may be just starting. Our researchers believe the initial target for this move is $2.85. After that level is reached, if the trend continues, a higher target near $3.65 could become a very real price target.
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Thursday, August 06, 2020
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This bull market can be more positive than the previous one both for gold and the mining stocks.In the last edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I analyzed various WGC’s reports on the gold market. Today, I will focus on the issues of Alchemist – the flagship publication of the London Bullion Market Associations – I was unable to discuss during the most acute phase of the pandemic and the following economic crisis.
I’ll start with the article “Is there a place of Gold Equities in a Gold Allocation?” by James Luke from issue no. 96. The Author poses title question because gold equities performed poorly relative to the gold prices over the last 10 or even 20 years, and “investors would have been better served staying well away.” Indeed, while the gold price is up more than 250 percent since 2005, the HUI Gold Index is just about 20 percent higher.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2020
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Nothing lasts forever, and the brightest flame burns itself out the fastest. That could very well apply to the current situation around PMs.
Speaking of indications pointing to the situation being excessive, let’s take a look at the USD Index.
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