Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 04, 2020
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have rocketed higher this summer, smashing out of their usual summer-doldrums sideways grind. That atypical strength has been driven by gold steadily marching to major new secular highs, fueled by strong investment demand. This has carried gold stocks and the metal they mine back to their traditional strong season, which begins with robust autumn rallies usually accelerating in late summers.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2020
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Our hard working miner here (we’ll call him Huey) has been pushing his cart of rocks, first gently downhill from 2016 to 2018 and then uphill to a bull market since May 2019.
As tracked in NFTRH, in 2019 the macro backdrop became positive for the gold stock sector as gold entered a bull market by taking out the 1378 level and its ratios to stock markets began to rise. Gold/SPX is among the most important macro indicators to a bullish gold mining case as a gold price rising in terms of stocks is the key factor in drawing larger investment (e.g. institutions) to the sector.
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Sunday, August 02, 2020
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
No matter what shape the recovery is, the epidemic will likely have lasting, positive effects on the gold market.During the most acute phase of the pandemic and the following economic crisis, there was no time to analyze various WGC’s reports on the gold market. Let’s make up for it!
I’ll start with the report “Recovery paths and impact on performance” about the gold mid-year outlook 2020. The World Gold Council notes that gold had a really excellent performance in the first half of 2020, rising almost by 17 percent (see the chart below), much higher than other major asset classes.
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Sunday, August 02, 2020
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our trading team witnessed a big drop in Platinum and Palladium prices early this morning while Gold and Silver continued to push moderately higher. We began to question this move and investigate any historical relevance to previous patterns. Our research team pointed out that both Platinum and Palladium rolled lower just 3 to 4 days before the breakdown in the US stock markets on February 24, 2020, while Gold and Silver were reaching recent price peaks. Could the patterns in precious metals be a warning of another potential volatility spike and price decline in the near future?
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Sunday, August 02, 2020
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Yesterday’s session was indeed volatile around the FOMC, just like we warned, and gold even moved to its previous high, likely forming a double-top pattern. Even though gold moved higher on an intraday basis, it didn’t invalidate its previous breakdown, which was a bearish sign. Gold was likely to decline, and it is declining so far in today’s pre-market trading.
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Saturday, August 01, 2020
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jim_Willie_CB
It is said that a picture is worth 1000 words, and thus two pictures are worth 2000 words. The entire financial system is fracturing and imploding, no exaggeration. The entire monetary system is being undermined in a true Weimar sense, in reality. Such a situation almost never has come about without a world war. Since 2001 in the Jackass opinion, the world financial war has been in progress with the imposition of anti-terrorism statutes, with a seminal event in 2008 for the bond implosion. A certain signpost was flashing in 2012 with the installation of Quantitative Easing, better described as hyper-monetary inflation of the unsterilized type. When the REPO market exploded on the scene in September 2019, the death of the USDollar’s foundation was evident to all with vision. When the sequence of CARES stimulus bills was enacted, the assurance for Infinite QE Forever was clear. The time before total sunset on the global reserve currency was declared as near. The Global Financial RESET is officially in progress. A new age is soon to dawn. The role of the USDollar is unclear in future months, probably for black market activity and possibly a transition currency.
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Saturday, August 01, 2020
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
The following is an update of a previous article: During the 2008 financial crisis the Fed significantly increased the US monetary base to keep the system from collapse. They are currently in a similar situation, and have done (is doing) the exact same thing.
Here is a chart of the US monetary base to illustrate the similarity:
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last week, I put out an article outlining my expectation for a pullback in GLD before we head to the 200+ region. Within the comments section, I outlined my plan as to how I am going to play for a potential pullback. However, that pullback has not yet materialized.
For those that have followed me closely for years, you know that I have been heavily long physical metals and mining stocks since I started accumulating them again in 2015, after calling the top in 2011.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity.
Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but as we will see, there are signs that this may all be about to change, and fast.
We'll start by looking at the year-to-date arithmetic chart for Light Crude on which we can see all of the dramatic developments this year. After deteriorating early in the year, the oil price accelerated to the downside, plunging early in March with a big gap down and then it continued to weaken into mid-April when a sudden huge drop left some contracts not just worthless, but actually having negative worth, meaning that if you took delivery you had to in effect pay someone to take it away, for an amount that exceeded what the oil was actually worth. Clearly, this was a situation that was untenable because so much depends on the oil price, so the Fed and the Military–Industrial complex worked all the levers at their disposal to get the price back up again, which of course included creating trillions of new dollars to throw at the problem, and to throw at the markets generally, especially the "window dressing" FAANG stocks. Up to now this has worked and we have seen a recovery rally of astounding proportions in the stock markets, especially the tech sector, and a respectable recovery in the oil price, and what makes all this even more astounding is that it has happened as the real world economy has been frozen by widespread lockdowns, the main purpose of which is to kill the velocity of money so that the Fed can print trillions and buy up everything without it feeding through immediately into hyperinflation—that will come later.
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold has jumped above $1,850 amid expectations of new stimulus, worries about the pace of economic recovery, and concerns about rising tensions between the U.S. and China.Houston, we have a problem! Please take a look at the chart below that presents the U.S. initial jobless claims. What do you see?
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
With silver breaking out decisively to the upside, bears are running for cover.
We had noted in our July 13th News Alert, “We are paying especially close attention to the bull vs. bear tug-of-war in the silver market around $19/oz. If the bulls yank prices decisively above that level on a strong close, short covering by capitulating bears could help drive a powerful breakout rally.”
That’s exactly what happened. The rally really accelerated once the $20/level was taken out last Monday. The bears have capitulated big time!
Also being forced to re-think their positions are gold-only bulls within the precious metals camp. Although they represent a minority viewpoint, some stubbornly cling to the view that only gold is sound money. They view silver as an industrial metal and tend to shun it as an investment.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price made a new all-time nominal high today at $1,945 per ounce. This move should not come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to the current financial landscape. The FED has injected an unprecedented amount of new money/debt into the economy since March in efforts to avoid a collapse from the impact of the Covid-19 virus and subsequent restrictions of business activity globally. Over $6 trillion in stimulus so far is roughly double the entire amount injected during the financial crisis of 2008/09. And they are just getting started.
The Federal Reserve has stated that stimulus efforts will last for years and they have committed to do “whatever it takes” to keep the economy afloat. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has shot from $4 trillion pre-crisis to $7 trillion today. This is the highest level on record by a wide margin and the fastest it has ever increased. And this is before the 2nd round of stimulus, which is currently being negotiated. While there are plenty of dollar bulls amidst a global dollar shortage, they have been incorrect in their bullish outlook thus far. The dollar index has dropped from a high of 103 on March 20th to just 94, a significant drop in just a few months to the lowest level since September of 2018.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Dan_Amerman
As shown in the graph below, the first half of 2020 produced an unusual change in the relationship between gold prices, stock prices and recessions, something that has only happened twice before in the last fifty years. Each of the two previous times this has occurred after a long run up in stock prices, it has been part of a cyclical change to a cycle favoring gold over stocks for a decade or more thereafter.
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Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
During the bull market years between 2000 and 2011 the US dollar and currencies played a key role in the PM complex bull market. Tonight I would like to go back and visit some of these old charts and see how they pertain to our current bull market.
Lets start with a simple GOLD:USD ratio chart that goes back to the 2011 all time high in gold. The bottom for the ratio came in toward the end of 2015 and has been slowly rising in what we can now call a bullish rising 5 point rising wedge reversal pattern. The 2011 bear market in the ratio ended in June of 2019 when the top rail was broken to the upside. Less than a year later the price action took out the top rail of the blue bullish rising wedge reversal pattern and is starting to impulse higher. This is a very bullish development.
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Monday, July 27, 2020
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling approximately $5.30 in each advance.
We wrote about these measured price moves in Gold and Silver in this article – Click Here
As traders, watching bonds accelerate moderately higher as the US Dollar falls and the stock market attempts new lofty levels, we are intrigued by the move in metals because it suggests a large segment of investors believe a bubble is nearing very peak valuation levels. The only reason metals, particularly Silver, would be accelerating as it has recently is that traders have suddenly adopted a stronger demand for second-stage hedging of risk.
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Monday, July 27, 2020
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
We tend to spend a lot of time looking into the rearview mirror, especially when under duress.
Connected to this is something psychologists call "recency bias." This simply means that what has happened in the near to intermediate past tends to inform and influence us as to how we should behave in the future.
The 2011 to early 2019 precious metals bear saga was broken only by a six-month bull hiatus in early 2016 – which then gave most of the rise back over the next two years!
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Sunday, July 26, 2020
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
European leaders stroke a historic deal that could be a game-changer and provide a support for the euro and gold against the U.S. dollar.Historic deal. Pivotal moment for Europe. On Monday, the EU leaders agreed on a massive economic stimulus plan, after a long and crotchety summit. If passed through the European Parliament and ratified by all EU states, the European Commission could borrow 750 billion euros to finance the recovery fund and distribute 390 billion in grants and 360 billion in loans across the countries most impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
That's breaking news and potentially a game-changer. The stimulus could, of course, help somewhat the European economies, supporting the recovery, but the key issue is that the summit’s outcome is an unprecedented act of European solidarity. Some analysts even see the agreement as the first step towards a true fiscal union. It’s still far from it, but the recovery fund marks a precedent for common debt financing at the EU level.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
How High Will Silver Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The torrid rally in the silver market reached a major milestone this morning as prices hit $21/oz.
On Monday, the silver spot price tracked by Money Metals Exchange closed at $20.12 (the futures market price settled at $20.19).
That marks the first above-$20 close for silver since 2016.
The white-hot silver market is busting through some resistance levels that should clear the way for higher highs ahead. Silver prices traded up Tuesday morning to $21.21 oz.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.
So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.
Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about gold. Many are still trying to sell you on the fact that gold is a hedge against market volatility. They suggest that you need to own gold to protect your portfolio when the stock market tanks. Well, in many past articles, I have outlined that history simply does not support this perspective.
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Saturday, July 25, 2020
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies.
The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months. Our researchers believe Oil has already set up a resistance level near $42 and will begin to move lower as concerns about the economic recovery transition through expectations related to oil demand going forward. We believe the renewed global economic demand for oil will present a very real possibility that oil could collapse below $35 ppb over the next 30 days.
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