Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Will the Crude Oil Price Crash become even Worse in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
A patient mind is the best remedy for trouble-
Plaut
2015 was not a good year for speculators trying to time the oil markets. Oil kept cutting through each support level like a hot knife cutting through butter. It would give the appearance that it was ready to mount a rally, but that rally would fade, and oil prices would drift lower. We penned an article in Nov of last year, where we stated that oil would have to close above $50 on a weekly basis for it to see higher prices. However, it failed to do that and drifted lower. When it closed below $32 on a weekly basis, it neutralized any tiny bullish signals it was issuing in 2015. Is oil close to putting in a bottom or will it once again let everyone down and plunge into a series of new lows. There is a saying that the cure for low prices is lower prices and vice versa; having said, that we expect one final wave of selling before oil bottoms out and starts to trend slowly upwards. We do not expect any violent upward reversals unless the situation between Iran and Saudi heats up to the point that a new war breaks out.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Marc Faber Warns Invest In Gold Now As Stock Market To Crash / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Marc Faber, editor of the “Gloom, Doom & Boom Report,” has advised investors that now is a good time to invest in gold because stocks will crash over 40% and the world is on the verge of a new liquidity and debt crisis.
Faber says investors would be prudent to diversify into safe haven in gold bullion which has risen 3% this year and is currently at $1,096 an ounce.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Silver Price Hitting Major Support / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: InvestingHaven
The long term silver chart is truly spectactular. It has basically 3 time periods since it started its bull market.
Phase I started in 2003 and lasted till 2010. Phase II was a trend change, indicated with the rectangle below, between 2011 and 2013, an extremely volatile period. Phase III is the current phase, and is basically a clear downtrend.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Chinese Volatility Could Fuel a Lithium-Price Rocket Launch / Commodities / Lithium
By: The_Energy_Report
When China's stock market started cratering at the beginning of the year, veteran investor and newsletter writer Chen Lin was rubbing his hands in anticipation of the opportunities that would be opening up, particularly in lithium and natural gas. In this interview with The Energy Report, the author of What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? shares his insights on what pushed battery-grade lithium prices up fourfold and which companies could benefit from a continued supply-demand imbalance. As a bonus, he also lists the three companies he thinks could take advantage of high overseas natural gas prices to actually return money to investors in the energy space.
The Energy Report: The year started with a very volatile Chinese stock market. Are we in crisis mode?
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Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Crude Oil Hit $32... But The Worst Is Yet To Come / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Harry_Dent
On August 5 last year I forecast that oil would hit $32 or a bit lower by January.And it’s happened right on cue!
Along with iron ore and coal (down 70%-plus), oil has been one of the worst-performing commodities – down 80% from its 2008 top. And ultimately it’s headed lower, all the way to $10 or $20. I’ve been saying this since oil was $115, and look where we are now!
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Central Planners Freaking Out about Discussion of Gold’s Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
Growing Support for Sound Money Rankles Fed Apologists
Sound money issues make for good politics these days. The leading Republican candidates have all suggested reforms to our monetary system. The topic is popping up in debates as well as interviews. Predictably, Fed worshippers and proponents of central planning everywhere are snickering and trotting out the usual responses.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Gold Deficits and T-Bond Fantasies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
Fantasy #1:
My name is John Q. Public. I live a good life, make lots of money (never mind how) and have debts such as a mortgage on a great house – $375,000, a Cessna – $150,000 (my air force), and a sweet little two mast sailing ship – $78,000 (my navy). Also my wife and children (my army) spend a lot of money. My total credit card debt is $97,000.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Oil price Slump Leads To Shale 2.0, The Great Crew Change, And COP21 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Alfidi Capital writes: The oil sector's bear attack shows no signs of abating. OPEC's Saudi-led push for huge overproduction is driving the US shale sector to the brink of collapse. The post-crash survivors can benefit from "Shale 2.0" technologies that keep their costs down. They will need every advantage they can get when the "Great Crew Change" makes finding human talent harder and the UN's COP21 protocols make hydrocarbon production less desirable.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Crude Oil Price Stabilises above $30 Following New U.S. Sanctions Imposed on Duped Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price reversed direction Monday to climb back above $30 (WTIC) as the market has started to discount the probability that the Iranians have been duped into given up nuclear weaponry, in a perpetual U.S. game of sanctions for ever for the purpose of Iran being systematically disarmed of it's military capacity much as Iraq was disarmed before a pretext for invasion was manufactured by the Intelligence Agencies all to appease the Saudi and Israeli fundamentalist states (Islamic and Jewish).
Monday, January 18, 2016
Gold Price Has Passed the Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Bob_Kirtley
We preface this article by stating that we are neither gold bears nor bulls. We traders and we target trades with the best possible risk reward dynamics, regardless of market direction. At the founding of our service, SK OptionTrader, we were bullish on the yellow metal and banked considerable profits as gold rallied to all-time highs. Beginning in 2013 we took a heavily bearish view, and again banked triple digit returns on gold as it declined. Now, we believe we have seen the lows and are preparing to get long gold once again.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 - Video By Nadeem Walayat / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After a savage bear market for the oil market for the whole of 2015, the crude oil price has got 2016 off with a bang by plunging to just below $30 before recovering at the last close to $30.68 (WTIC). One does not need to look far for the negative fundamentals that are driving the oil price into dust. Fundamentals such as the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, fundamentals such as the apparent oil war that Saudi Arabia is engaged in with the United States shale oil industry and now added to are fundamentals of lifting of sanctions against Iran that can literally immediately flood the oil market with 50 million barrels of crude oil in storage and looks set to up its output by 1m b/d this year.
Monday, January 18, 2016
Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Bottom ?..Do they Ring a Bell ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to take a look at the PM complex as there are some interesting charts building out. Please don’t confuse this report with what Sir Spock, Sir Norvast and others are doing at the Chartology Forum as they’re looking for undervalued PM stocks that will be ready to buy when the time is right. In some cases the time might be now as a few of the PM stocks are holding support. In the vast majority of the cases though, excluding some of the Australian and a few South African PM stocks, most are still under pressure. So for some folks who like to get in a little early and have the patience to wait for the bear market to exhaust itself, one can start picking up a few shares of their favorite PM stocks and see what happens. There won’t be a bell go off at the bottom I can assure you of that.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
Gold and Silver Rally, Miners Spanked on Stock Option Expiry / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jesse
"Price discovery is not a sexy function of markets, but it is critical to the efficient allocation of scarce capital and resources, and to the preservation of the long term wealth of investors and the economy as a whole. If price discovery is compromised by manipulation, then we will all be gradually impoverished and the economy will be imbalanced and unstable."
London Banker, Lies, Damn Lies, and Libor
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Sunday, January 17, 2016
California Major Catastrophe: Major Media Problem / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Walter_Brasch
On Oct. 23, Southern California Gas technicians discovered a leak of methane from a failed casing on one of the pipes in its Alisa Canyon storage facility, about 30 miles northwest of Los Angeles.
The company estimates it will be the end of March until it can plug that leak from the pipe that is about 9,000 feet deep.
Sunday, January 17, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of just under $30 per barrel as a consequence of a perfect storm of falling demand, primarily due to the slowing Chinese economy and relentlessly rising output that is not just limited to the usual OPEC suspects but is as the natural consequences of the fracking boom that continued to ripple out from the US to across the world during 2015.
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Gold And Silver: New World Order: Public Be Damned, Preferably Dead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_Noonan
In the midst of this political and economic maelstrom that appears to be reaching its peak since the pivotal 9/11 "attack" on the US, when the twin towers of the World Trade Center were destroyed, partially by an airplane flying into each tower, then more fully by the detonation of all the explosives planted in the buildings to insure their destruction. Should there be any question as to that assessment, which has gained greater acceptance by those willing to do their due diligence, the unprovoked destruction of building seven [WTC 7] adds proof of how these buildings were planned for certain demolition, in advance.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Gold Price in 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
We all know that gold prices in US dollars have been in a downtrend for about 4.5 years.
We all know that gold prices rise, on average, as the underlying currency declines in value. Gold in the US was priced under $21 per ounce when the Federal Reserve was established. Since then the dollar has been devalued and gold has increased in price by a factor of about 50.
It is the same story around the world, whether you evaluate in terms of British pounds, euros, rubles, yen, or any other debt based fiat paper currency.
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Friday, January 15, 2016
Gold Bullion Retains “Key Role Of A Major Diversifier” – Dr Gurdgiev / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
- 2015 and start 2016 “worrying” for markets
- Gold’s long term performance strong in all currencies (see table)
- “Improved performance in market for gold coins”
- “Demand for U.S. Mint issued gold coins rose 45.6% y/y in weight terms”
- “2015 the third busiest year over the last ten years”
- Gold has key role of a major diversifier in portfolios
Friday, January 15, 2016
Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength (as we noted last week) and that is a good thing. However, the poor performance from Silver and sudden sharp reversal in the gold miners signals that the sector is on the cusp of making new lows.