Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Silver & Gold Stocks Dangerously Close to Breakdown / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The fledgling rebound in the precious metals complex suddenly reversed course. Since the intraday peak last Thursday, gold stocks (GDX and GDXJ) declined about 13% while Gold lost $1100/oz and today (Thursday) $1080/oz. Silver, which did not mount much of a rebound to begin with remains mired below $13/oz. Gold is showing increasing relative strength (as we noted last week) and that is a good thing. However, the poor performance from Silver and sudden sharp reversal in the gold miners signals that the sector is on the cusp of making new lows.
Friday, January 15, 2016
War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has quickly ballooned into the worst conflict in decades between the two countries.
The back-and-forth escalation quickly turned the simmering tension into an overt struggle for power in the Middle East. First, the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric prompted protestors to set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations and kicked out Iranian diplomatic personnel. Tehran banned Saudi goods from entering Iran. Worst of all, Iran blames Saudi Arabia for an airstrike that landed near its embassy in Yemen.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Gold Price Declined and Simultaneously Rose in 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The U.S. dollar price of gold declined in 2015, but the same year gold advanced in many other currencies. What can we learn from this behavior?
The London spot price of the shiny metal, in U.S. dollars, declined 9.56 percent from $1172 to $1060 last year, marking its fourth full year in a bear market. It also fell from the perspective of the Swiss franc, British pound and Japanese yen. However, gold prices quoted in other major currencies show a different picture.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
UBS Warns Stock Market “Rolling Over” – “Buy Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016′, it is time to “buy gold”.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
The Scariest Commodity Market Chart on the Planet / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Rambus_Chartology
Excerpt from Tonight's Wednesday Report
The implications of this 60 year quarterly chart for the CRB index is staggering if it completes this impulse move down which so far has been working out beautifully. Again on this massive time scale you can see an unbalanced H&S top that measures out to just below the major support zone at the bottom of the chart.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
How Precious Metals Investors Can Trump the Establishment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
As the presidential primaries quickly approach, the establishment is in panic mode over the prospect of losing control. It’s not just about Donald Trump. The political class, the “mainstream” media, Wall Street, and the central banking cartel are all losing credibility in the eyes of the public.
2016 is shaping up as the year of “We’re not gonna take it anymore” – in more ways than one. It’s an encouraging development for precious metals investors and sound money advocates.
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Thursday, January 14, 2016
Crude Oil Price Crash Catastrophe, Independant Scotland Literally Begging to Rejoin the UK / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of $29, less than 1/3rd of just over a year ago at the time of the Scottish Independence mania that surrounded the Independence Referendum on the backs of an oil price of over $100 which had the Scottish Nationalists fantasising of the oil price heading to $120 and beyond, as part of painting a propaganda picture of an Independent Scotland Utopia to be built on tens of billions of free money each year in the form of tax revenues from a perpetually expanding north sea oil industry. Not only were the nationalist convinced of the oil price soaring soaring into the stratosphere but would heavily round on anyone that suggested that oil prices could actually fall as being Unionist propaganda.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
WTIC Crude Oil and Silver Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Gary_Savage
At 63% below the 200 week moving average the price of oil has gone "parabolic" to the downside. Silver is due for an intermediate degree rally. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Paper Gold: Utopia for Alchemists / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
John Hathaway, respected authority on the gold market and senior portfolio manager with Tocqueville Asset Management has written an excellent research paper on the fundamentals driving the gold market today.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Peak Bull Crap - How Oil Futures Curve Have Little Predictive Value / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The oil market is the hot market right now from a news generation standpoint. But there are a lot of people writing and even trading in the oil market that frankly don`t have any clue what they are talking about. I have read some real rubbish the last few months regarding the oil market, and with the recent fall in prices, the last few days have been characterized by peak bull crap. Maybe if anything else this is an indication of the bottoming process in oil. Sort of like all those do it yourself Gold Mining shows hitting the reality television scene pretty much nailing the near term top in the gold market.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Silver, Silliness, Gold, and Risk / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
The movie “The Big Short” features Michael Burry. His statement from Zerohedge:
“It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk pricing mechanism is broken.”
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Sales Surge After U.S. Mint Quadruples Silver Eagles Allocation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
American Eagle silver coin sales jumped on Monday after the U.S. Mint said it set the first weekly allocation of 2016 at 4 million ounces, roughly four times the amount rationed in the last five months of 2015, after a surge in demand.
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Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Betrayed By The Gold Silver Ratio ? Gold Bug heresy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Denali_Guide
“ET TU BRUTE ?” “Cuo Bono ?”
“It's a long time from now to never....” Says 'John Snow' in Game of Thrones. In my opinion, probably as far as from here / now to “It must go back to....” uttered so much in the worship of the Gold Silver Ratio (GSR). And yet it doesn't, at least not until you suffer your stops being run and a loss of capital, or worse. Your Capital was just betrayed at the hands of The GSR.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Here is How You Fix the Oil Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
The Mining Industry Approach
Monday, January 11, 2016
Crude Oil Price Closed Week under 2009 Low! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions (with a stop-loss order at $39.12) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil lost 1.14% as concerns over a global supply glut, the situation in China and the Middle East continued to weigh on investors sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude closed the week under the 2009 low. Does it mean that we’ll see a test of the barrier of $30 in the coming weeks?
Monday, January 11, 2016
The “Hanging in There” Game for Oil Producers / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: EconMatters
9.2 Million Barrels
The latest EIA report shows the US Production rate steady and holding at the 9.2 million barrels per day. And although there have been some anecdotal reports out of Canada at the start of the year on this recent down leg in oil prices, that this has triggered them to shut down production, that at these prices it makes no sense to continue operations; the rest of the beleaguered producers in the oil space are continuing to operate and hold on throwing more bad money after bad money.
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Monday, January 11, 2016
Must See Presentation: “Wealth” of “Positive Catalysts” for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
Grant Williams gave another must see presentation at the Mines and Money Conference in London last month, laying out why he believes the gold price is languishing despite a wealth of what would ordinarily be “positive catalysts.”
Williams’ presentation is titled “Gold: The Unsurance Policy — Love It or Loathe It.” It is 28 minutes long and can be viewed here:
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Monday, January 11, 2016
What’s Up with the HUI and Gold ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dan_Norcini
“UP” it was, but the intermediate term chart is certainly not that impressive, given the pandemonium that has been taking place since the start of the New Year.
The index does seem to have carved out a bottom just above the 100 level but it must take out initial resistance near 140 and then again above the 50 period moving average to give chartists some reason to turn more solidly bullish. As things stand now, all it looks like the index has done is to bounce off a bottom and trek higher towards to the upper bounds of a sideways trading pattern. For a bullish breakout to occur, 150 will have to be cleared.
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Sunday, January 10, 2016
The Dot Plot, Treasuries and the Gold Stocks TSX.V / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016
By: Richard_Mills
The Federal Reserve has finally raised their target for the Fed Funds rate. In a unanimous vote members decided to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.25 - 0.50 per cent. It was the first hike since June 2006 when then Fed head Ben ‘helicopter’ Bernanke increased the benchmark rate from 5 to 5.25 percent.
How far and how fast will the Fed's rate-hike cycle go? Maybe Federal Reserve members themselves can tell us that…
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