Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

The New Normal for Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

You may have come across the word “contango” in an oil-related news report or article recently and wondered, “What’s contango?”

It isn’t the Chinese version of the tango.

Contango is a condition in a commodity market where the futures price for the commodity is higher than the current spot price. Essentially, the future price of oil is higher than what oil is worth today.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Coffee Anyone? A Commdity Chart Technical Outlook / Commodities / Coffee

By: Austin_Galt

Being based in a country renowned for some of the world’s finest coffee, Colombia, I have acquired a taste for the green bean. So just what do I expect to be paying for the fine blend going forward?

Let’s take a top down approach to the technicals beginning with the yearly chart.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Alarming Gold Market Manipulations Underway / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Submissions

Mike Gleason writes: Well, the first full week of the New Year has brought a number of important headlines worthy of precious metals investors’ attention, so let’s get right to the latest developments.

On Monday, John Boehner took hold of the gavel as Speaker of the House for another two years. Boehner overcame opposition from a small minority of dissenting conservative lawmakers. But this small minority represents a majority of actual Republican voters who say they are dissatisfied with Speaker Boehner over his spending deals that have fully funded President Obama’s agenda and keep jacking up the national debt.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

HUI Closes Strong – Gold Price Clears First Resistance Hurdle / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Two quick charts to note some developments in gold.

The first is of the metal itself.

A couple of things worth mentioning. First of all is the CLOSING push past the 100 day moving average. That will attract the technical or chart-based trading funds. If they are short, they will cover; if not long, some will come in on a signal like this.

Secondly – the price closed above the first level of chart resistance noted down near the $1225 level or so. That is the best CLOSING price in over one month.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Gold and Commodity Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have so far analyzed the current situation in the oil market, suggesting that falling oil prices can indicate another recession in the not so distant future. So the obvious question arises: would it be positive or negative for the gold market? The answer depends on whether gold is pro-cyclical or not. Some economists believe that gold, as oil, rises in a boom and falls during the bust. We consider that opinion too simplified. However, there are indeed strong arguments that commodity prices are strongly affected by the monetary policy responsible for the business cycle. Let’s analyze some data.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Gold Prices Rise on Unexpected Fall in US Hourly Earnings / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,222.00, EUR 1,035.77 and GBP 808.09 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,211.25, EUR 1.025.09 and GBP 799.61 per ounce.

Spot gold climbed $13.20 or 1.09% to $1,220.50 per ounce Friday and silver rose $0.15 or 0.92% to $16.46 per ounce. Gold and silver both performed strong last week up 2.78% and 4.24% respectively.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Low Oil Prices Benefit at the Pump and in the Market / Commodities / Credit Crisis 2015

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Low oil prices is certainly one of the biggest stories of the past six months.

Indeed, as the price of crude continues to drop, currently hovering just under a once-unthinkable $50 per barrel price, the issue is sure to be in the news well into the foreseeable future.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Gold and Silver Postcards From the Great Emptiness / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jesse

“We who are born into this age of freedom and independence and the self must undergo this loneliness. It is the price we pay for these times of ours.” - Natsume Sôseki

"The issue isn't just jobs. Even slaves had jobs. The issue is wages. - Jim Hightower

The headline 'Jobs Number' came in better than expected at an adjusted +252,000.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Large Speculators Returning to Gold - But / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dan_Norcini

Here is the latest chart detailing the relationship between the Hedge funds NET POSITIONING in the Comex gold market and the price of the actual metal.

I have presented this chart for some time now over at my former website to rebut the silliness from the gold perma-bull camp that any moves lower in the price of gold are ALWAYS the result of "evil bullion banks working to suppress the price of the metal to discredit it". That mindset had a place at one time - back when the US Dollar was sinking - but is now passé and an extreme waste of precious mental effort and time. The camp that has this as a central tenet of their "faith" has long ago lost any credibility on this issue among serious-minded investors/traders.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

What’s In Store For Gold Price in 2015? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jason_Hamlin

The following article is from Gold Stock Bull contributor, Ben Kramer-Miller.  While I agree with his overall assessment and reasoning, I am a bit more bullish in the short term and think precious metals have likely already found a bottom. Of course, short-term pricing is driven by paper derivative contracts and the emotions of investors that either panic or buy the dip when the sharp price movements occur, so anything is possible in the short term. In the medium to long-term, we both agree that prices for both gold and silver are moving substantially higher and that 2015 will prove to be an excellent year to accumulate metals and undervalued miners.  Cheers – Jason Hamlin

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Forecasts / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Investment_U

Rachel Gearhart writes: This week’s chart looks at oil prices from December 2012 through the end of 2014. It also does something quite interesting. It shows predictions out to June 2016. To create the chart, we looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and the futures market.

As you can see in the chart, analysts and Goldman Sachs forecast a strong rebound in oil prices.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2025: Importers Set to Receive a $600 Billion Refund / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

This is an update on a long-term oil price forecasting model developed in early 2008 first posted in April 2009 as “The Impending Mother of All Oil Shocks” which was updated in December 2010 and posted as “Crude Oil Price Ten Year Forecast to 2020”.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24849.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10260.html

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Very Strong Indirect Reasons To Buy Gold And Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Michael_Noonan

Got gold? Got silver? If not, you may not survive very well under the current and future regime[s] established in this country. Does price matter? Sure, everyone wants to buy reasonably near the lows, and there are many of us who paid substantially higher prices than currently exist. However, if there is no intent to sell but only hold as a form of wealth protection and/or a form of insurance against a worthless fiat paper currency, then price paid is really immaterial and focus should remain on purpose, not price. Owning and controlling either or both gold and silver are far more important.

In a market that is forming a bottom, price usually moves sideways along the RHS of the chart [Right Hand Side]. What is known for certain is that the farther price moves along the RHS, the closer it gets to a final resolution: a final bottom and eventual reversal of trend. The same applies to the ownership of gold and silver.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

The Other Side of the “Oil Glut” / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: The pundits continue to hawk the same reasons for the fall in oil prices.

These are always “spearheaded” by comments about surging global supply led by the onslaught of unconventional (tight and shale) oil production in the U.S.

Invariably, what’s missed by these “TV sages” are the pricing dynamics kicking in that virtually guarantee an increase in oil prices as we move into 2015.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Euro and Oil in the Year Ahead 2015 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: HRA_Advisory

There was enough good news in the US through December to send all the major indices in New York except NASDAQ to new all-time highs and the tech index isn’t far off. It’s all rainbows and ponies on Wall St right now which should make any sensible person a bit nervous.

As I expected oil is still in the dumps and that state of affairs should last for a while. As noted in the last issue this big a drop in oil prices is a stimulus though it’s a smaller stimulus in the US than Wall St. wants to believe. Expectations are high after the US printed 5% GDP growth in Q3. That was indeed impressive and cheaper oil should help generate good growth numbers in Q4 and Q1 2015. Things may tail off after that though.

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Top 5 Gold Stocks - January 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Mike_McAra

The precious metals market isn’t really all about metals. Well, it sort of is but it is not ONLY about metals. Mining stocks are a significant part of the market and one that is very much interesting for gold and silver investors. In this commentary, we try to give you an idea why but we don’t stop there. We also discuss the 5 top gold stocks for January 2015 and let you know what might make a solid mining stock investment, in our opinion.

Mining stocks is the general name for the stocks of companies extracting metals. The term is pretty self-explanatory, companies that qualify to this category mine metals, not only precious metals but also ores like copper. From the perspective of a precious metals investor, the most interesting mining stocks are those linked to gold, silver, platinum and, possibly to a lesser extent, palladium. In these considerations we’ll apply the term “mining stocks” in this restricted form, and only to senior mining stocks.

Friday, January 09, 2015

Gold Stocks Turning Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners have seen impressive investor interest in their beaten-down stocks in this young new year, with capital inflows fueling a sharp rally.  And this buying is likely just beginning, as major market changes are afoot that should catapult gold much higher.  With gold stocks trading at fundamentally-absurd price levels relative to prevailing gold prices, this sector’s upside potential is vast and unequalled.

But after the gold miners suffered a miserable couple of years, it sure takes a contrarian to understand that.  The leading gold-stock investment vehicle and metric is Van Eck Global’s Gold Miners ETF, which trades under the symbol GDX.  It is an excellent well-constructed gold-stock benchmark that matches the traditional HUI gold-stock index very well.  So it naturally reflected the extreme carnage ravaging this sector.

Friday, January 09, 2015

Gold and Silver Steady Start for 2015 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Gold and silver started the year at a muted point, with gold at $1168 and silver at $15.50, from which modest rallies have developed, with gold up 4% and silver 6%. These rises were against a background of high volatility in equity markets, a strong US dollar and very weak oil prices.

The firmly entrenched bearish opinions in recent months for the outlook for gold and silver have backed off from recent extremes. There is confusion in dealers’ minds, brought about by the threat of deflation and the collapse in oil prices.

Friday, January 09, 2015

The Hoarder, The Miser, The Gold and Silver Investor / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

A subscriber sent me the following note recently:

You know I was driving home tonight and was observing all the cars building etc. I thought maybe I am nuts this can't all stop. Then I also said to myself this is an illusion that massive un-payable debt has created. I hope for all of our sakes the former wins because the latter would be unbearable. Do you honestly believe a collapse war and poverty is truly going to happen? What's the difference even if you have a ton of silver people just would take it. No law cops etc. everything would be vaporized!

Friday, January 09, 2015

Gold Price Shows Increasing Relative Strength Amid US Dollar Strength / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The current trendy reason for the mainstream to dislike Gold is strength in the US Dollar. On the surface it makes quite a bit of sense. Gold is priced in dollars. Dollar strength automatically pressures the Gold price. However, this popular view reveals a total lack of introspection. Since the end of 2013 Gold is essentially flat (positive by a fraction) while the greenback has gained a whopping 14.9%. Better yet, since Gold’s early November low it has gained 6.0% even while the US$ is up 5.8%. This type of relative strength within the context of an aging bear market may be another sign of a major trend change brewing under the surface.