Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 21, 2021
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately. The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?
Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad
My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level. As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, delves into the movement among some companies to hold Bitcoin and gold rather than cash.
Imagine your favorite company getting sued for holding too much cash.
I know, that's a big statement. But hear me out.
Corporations, pension funds and insurance companies—anyone responsible to stakeholders—could one day face class action lawsuits if they don't diversify into other reserves assets. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, especially in today's litigious-happy world.
Michael Saylor famously bought bitcoin last year to diversify and protect the buying power of MicroStrategy's surplus cash…half a billion dollars' worth. Elon Musk recently did the same for Tesla, plowing $1.5 billion into bitcoin. Before either of these was Overtstock.com. Remember them?
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Palladium was manipulated for years. It had the largest short position relative to its size, while physical demand rose inversely to decreasing supply.
In 2018, demand became so large that it overwhelmed the shorts.
Physical palladium could not meet the market's needs and prices exploded. Shorts eventually decreased their positions until they got to a more sustainable level.
For many years, the platinum/palladium ratio, shown on proprietary charts, averaged 2.4 to 1 in favor of platinum, stretched as high as 5:1 in 2009, but then collapsed for a decade into 2020, to where 1 ounce of palladium would buy 5 ounces of platinum!
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Friday, February 19, 2021
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is dodging bullets, as it comes increasingly under fire from rising U.S. interest rates and a USD that is poised to surge.
Catching unsuspecting traders in yet another bull trap , gold’s early-week strength quickly faded. And with investors unwilling to vouch for the yellow metal for more than a few days, the rush-to-exit mentality highlights a short-term vexation that’s unlikely to subside.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
The Commodity Cycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Donald_W_Dony
Commodity prices have remained in a prolonged downward trend since the price peak in mid-2008. Driven lower by a firming U.S. dollar (DXY) beginning in 2008-2011 and continuing until the present, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has declined by about 80 percent over the last 13 years.
The recent rally in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (GTX) in 2020 appears to be a reaction to the DXY price weakness and the rebound in the U.S. 10 year T-bond yields. The GTX Index moves in the opposite trend to the dollar and in a similar path to the T-bond yields (Chart1).
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The effort to squeeze silver shorts may appear to have fizzled, but naked short sellers are as vulnerable as ever.
Silver futures prices are entering backwardation. That is a bad omen for anyone betting on lower silver prices.
Backwardation happens very rarely, but this condition has been a reliable indicator that higher prices are on the way each time it has occurred over the past decade.
In the futures market, silver prices generally go up based on how far away the delivery month is. Most of the time, prices for future delivery are higher than today’s spot price, i.e., the price for delivery now. There is a cost of carry – primarily driven by storage fees and opportunity cost of funds – when it comes to holding physical silver bars.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
2020 was a stellar year for the precious metals, indeed one for the books.
As the pandemic hit the global economies early in the year and governments around the world began to shut everything down and the printing machines began to print ginormous amounts of money out of thin air to save their economies from total collapse, gold jumped 24%, while silver jumped nearly 50%, over double that of gold.
But that was not the real news. This is not the first time the precious metals have had a groundbreaking year. You don't have to look any further than 2011 to see these two safe haven metals have a record breaking year.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent rally in Marijuana and Alternative Pharma/Agriculture stocks has been impressive, to say the least. One thing we have to remember about this sector is that it rallied to highs in 2018 and 2019, then fell out of favor for many months. The anticipation of this new sector emerging within the US, and across many areas of the globe, prompted quite a bit of excitement after 2016 when many US states voted to legalize Marijuana. Even before this date, the alternative medicine and consumer product use related to Marijuana has been heavily speculated on by investors/traders.
If we were to consider the out-of-favor phase of this sector over the past 15+ months, after the rally/hype phase which took place in 2017 and early 2018, we’ve seen many cannabis stocks collapse 70% to 85% or more recently. This downward price trend likely set up a number of incredible opportunities based on expanded marketplace opportunities, enterprise valuations, and longer-term consumer/pharmaceutical use applications for CBD and other chemical extracts. Additionally, we need to also consider what would happen if a consolidation phase were to take place in this industry – how would cannabis leaders play a role in acquiring smaller, yet important, firms with innovative technology/solutions.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2021
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Corrections in Gold and Gold Stocks are completely normal in an inflationary macro market phase
See also The Normalcy of Gold posted on February 16.
Every week I notice the agony ratcheting up incrementally. While the rest of the casino takes off to the speculative heavens, gold sits on its heavy ass and the gold miners go nowhere in a downward-biased perma-correction. Or so it seems. It’s all normal and I’ll explain why.
First of all, it is not healthy to be railing against unseen nefarious manipulative interests. That is emotion and emotion has to be kept out of it (and yes, I get as aggravated as the next guy sometimes, but it cannot affect your plan or you will be the victim, the mark). You have to take what the market gives you and roll with it. All markets are manipulated when you consider that the greatest manipulation of all is courtesy of the Federal Reserve, implementing its MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), err, that is TMM (Total Market Manipulation) toward desired ends.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
When a trend is strong, related markets tend to move in unison.
However, when a trend is near exhaustion -- either bullish or bearish, "non-confirmations" often occur. This is when one market continues to rise (or fall), but a related market does not.
As a case in point, the Feb. 3 U.S. Short Term Update, an Elliott Wave International thrice weekly publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, discussed the details of a non-confirmation between the price action of gold and silver. Here's a chart and commentary:
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: MoneyMetals
Attention in the metals markets shifted this week from silver to copper and platinum. While big moves in silver and gold prices may be coming down the road, the monetary metals are currently taking a back seat to electrical and automotive metals.
A massive push by the Biden administration to replace gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles is helping to crank up demand for copper. Anything involving electricity involves copper – and lots of it.
Electric vehicles and their massive batteries contain an average of 180 pounds of the metal. That’s six times the copper that’s used in gasoline cars. Even larger quantities of copper are required for EV charging stations and necessary upgrades to electrical grid infrastructure.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Tesla has supported the price of Bitcoin, but it can affect gold as well.The bull market in cryptocurrencies continues. As you can see in the chart below, the price of Bitcoin has recently increased to almost $47,000 (as of February 10). The parabolic rise seems to be disturbing, as such quick rallies often end abruptly.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless / Commodities / Gas - Petrol
By: OilPrice_Com
The average energy investor is by now well aware of the sector's monumental shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Coal-powered power plants have been shuttering at an alarming clip as the price of electricity from natural gas and renewables undercuts them while wind and solar generation continue to gain the ascendancy.
But nowhere has this change been as dramatic as the transport industry, with EV titans such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO Ltd. (NYSE:NIO) now commanding substantially higher valuations than their imposing ICE brethren, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motors (NYSE:F). Indeed, the global EV sector now carries a higher valuation than the global ICE sector despite accounting for less than 3% of new vehicle sales in 2020.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nick_Barisheff
The world is awash in debt, an immense, unfathomable ocean of financial obligations. The stack of IOUs is so enormous, the balances so large, they will never be fully settled without dreadful consequences to the global economy. This tsunami of debt was unleashed in 1971, when Nixon ended the backing of the US dollar with gold.
Since 1971, US debt and gold price have increased greatly. Traditionally, rampant increases in US debt occur when trying to pull the economy out of an economic downturn as displayed in the spikes that occurred in 2008 and 2020. Considering the amount of debt that has already been taken on to combat the pandemic combined with the rising uncertainty involving vaccinations and new strain variants, it can be anticipated that the worst is yet to come. As Democrats push towards passing an additional $1.9 trillion stimulus package, governments are willing to take on previously unforeseen levels of debt to prop up the economy during the pandemic. This could lead to a promising future for the price of gold.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally / Commodities / Platinum
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you were not paying attention, Platinum began to rally much higher over the past 3+ days – initiating a new breakout rally and pushing well above the $1250 level. What you may not have noticed with this breakout move is that commodities are hot – and inflation is starting to heat up. What does that mean for investors/traders?
Daily Platinum Chart Shows Clear Breakout Trend
First, Platinum is used in various forms for industrial and manufacturing, as well as jewelry and numismatic functions (minting/collecting). This move in Platinum is more likely related to the increasing inflationary pressures we’ve seen in the Commodity sector coupled with the increasing demand from the surging global economy (nearing a post-COVID-19 recovery). The most important aspect of this move is the upward pricing pressure that will translate into Gold, Silver, and Palladium.
We’ve long suggested that Platinum would likely lead a rally in precious metals and that a breakout move in platinum could prompt a broader uptrend in other precious metals. Now, the combination of this type of rally in Platinum combined with the Commodity rally and the inflationary pressures suggests the global markets could be in for a wild ride over the next 12 to 24+ months.
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Saturday, February 13, 2021
Short the Fed, Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Gold Resource Investor, explains why corporate America is beginning to see gold as a necessary reserve asset.
Yellen is Treasury Secretary. Powell is Fed Chair. And Sanders is head of the Senate Budget Committee.
Most of the time, it's impossible to tell the future. But there are exceptions. Right now, there's no room left to read between the lines. The goals, and outcome, are obvious.
America, along with the rest of the world, is going to try and spend its way out of the pandemic crisis.
This crystal ball is perfectly clear, and Wall Street's been peering into it. That's why stocks are near all-time highs. It's why, increasingly, the savviest managers from corporate America are also catching on, and acting.
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Friday, February 12, 2021
Energy Metals Lead the Charge / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver aren’t the only viable plays in the metals space – and they aren’t currently the leaders.
On Wednesday, both copper and platinum rallied up to multi-year highs. Rhodium, meanwhile, currently commands $21,000 per ounce – yes, per ounce – making it one of the most valuable elements on the planet.
What’s driving these “energy” metals? Besides ongoing currency depreciation and the risks of higher inflation, which will help boost all hard assets over time, rising demand for electricity in general and electric vehicles in particular.
President Joe Biden recently decreed that the federal government must transition its entire fleet of cars, vans, and trucks to electric motors.
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
What’s Next for the Silver Price Roller Coaster? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After a frenzy of Reddit induced activity that captivated everyone, silver painfully gave back what it gained. What’s next for the white metal?
As the precious metals’ version of moral hazard, silver tipped over the flowerpot, and left gold to clean up the mess. After silver’s short squeeze mania ended in tears on Feb. 2, the white metal gave back 97% of its squeeze -induced gains. Conversely, bearing the brunt of the market’s wrath, gold gave back 237% of the momentum-induced gains.
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
Precious Metals Charging Higher As Stocks Keep Pushing On a String / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Submissions
Stocks keep cooling off at their highs, and calling for a correction still seems to be many a fool‘s errand. Does it mean all is fine in the S&P 500 land? Largely, it still is.
Such were my yesterday‘s words:
(…) It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, and the anticipated slowdown in gains over Friday, where is the momentary balance of forces?
Still favoring the bulls – that‘s the short answer before we get to a more detailed one shortly.
The anticipaded gold rebound is underway, and my open long position is solidly profitable right now. In line with the case I‘ve been making since the end of January, the tide has turned in the precious metals, and we are in a new bull upleg, which will get quite obvious to and painful for the bears.
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Sunday, February 07, 2021
MainStreetBets on Silver and Wins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor, explains why he believes silver's movements this past week were just a small taste of its opening act.
TEMPORARILY OUT OF STOCK.
That's the message most hopeful physical silver buyers have been getting since the last days of January. Odds are bullion dealers going to have a tough time keeping any silver in stock.
Everyone is buying, and no one is selling the physical metal. Dealers are asking for 35% premiums…and that's if you can get your hands on any silver at all.
And yet I remember well, less than a year ago in mid-March, when the world started a major lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Gold and silver bullion dealers were nearly completely sold out within days. In some cases, silver premiums reached historic highs, near 100% of spot prices.
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