Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 05, 2021
Precious Metals Resuming Bull Market, Gold, Silver, GDX Trend Forecasts 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Ken_Ticehurst
Gold and silver continue to be bullish, the gold miners are mixed and bitcoin continues to outperform. Despite the unprecedented events of 2020 the precious metals have had a positive year, the pandemic brought volatility to the market with a sharp drop followed by a continuation of the upward trend that had begun before Covid disrupted our lives.
Unprecendented global liquidity since the pandemic has been the catalyst for much of the recent reflation in markets, Central Bank willingness to maintain ultra low rates, Government deficits, stimulus packages and infrastructure projetcs are all adding to rising markets.
Whilst Coronavirus is still with us it seems as though we are over the worst of it, with better testing and vaccines available to us, barring an unprecedented mutation it is unlikely to provide no more than a mild headwind to investors as we head to the peak of the Northern Hemisphere flu season.
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Monday, January 04, 2021
A Year Like No Other for Precious Metals… and Everything Else / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Well, it’s been a year like no other in so many ways. “Unprecedented” is an often-overused term. But there truly is no precedent for much of what transpired in public health, politics, the monetary system, the economy, and markets.
More than 300,000 Americans reportedly lost their lives while infected with COVID-19. Less widely publicized was a spike in deaths of despair due to lockdowns and related social ills that drove all too many into depression and drug addiction. Or the deaths that were caused, or will be caused, by Americans putting off or avoiding doctor’s visits.
America’s cities burned while the mainstream media egged on anti-police protests. In their aftermath, record surges in murders and other violent crimes followed across the country.
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Monday, January 04, 2021
An In- Depth Look At Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Gold plays a duel role as a commodity and as a monetary metal which makes it important to keep a close eye on. During the early stages of a commodity bull market Gold will generally lead the whole complex higher. When the troops see the General leading they will feel more emboldened to have their turn at a bull market. We’ve seen this scenario playing out since the Spring of this year where most of the important commodities have bottomed out and are beginning their new respective bull markets. Gold actually bottomed in late December of 2015 while commodities continued in their bear markets into the Spring of 2020.
As a monetary metal some investors like to use Gold as a safe way to store wealth or as a hedge against inflation. Other investors like to have Gold in their portfolio in case the stock markets crash and the economy goes into a deep tailspin and never recovers again. One thing we do know is that Gold will always have a monetary value and not go to zero which is possible with an individual stock.
In this in-depth look at Gold we’ll look at it from the daily to quarterly charts, in bar and line charts and ratio combo charts which will paint the history for gold starting from the 1970’s to the present. When you finish reading this post you should have a strong understanding of where Gold has been and where it is likely to go based on the Chartology. There are no absolutes when it comes to the markets, but as we know history never repeats exactly the same but can rhyme to a certain degree.
Let’s start with a daily chart for Gold and then work our way out to the longer term charts and try to put all the pieces of the puzzle together to form a working scenario we can use to help guide us going forward. Without a game plan or working scenario one is left to the emotional destruction, from a psychological perspective, that ruins most investors that don’t have a true understanding of how markets work.
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Friday, January 01, 2021
Gold and Silver Supply/Demand Fundamentals for 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The supply and demand fundamentals for precious metals markets got thrown into disarray this year, leading to heightened volatility – first on the downside, then on the upside.
Although gold and silver will finish 2020 below their highs for the year, gold is still headed for an annual return of close to 25%; silver around 45%.
Can hard assets investors look forward to further price appreciation in 2021?
Yes, but…there are some near-term risks to the favorable long-term supply/demand outlook.
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Thursday, December 31, 2020
Gold Price Seeks Direction as USDX Slips / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As of Wednesday (Dec. 30) morning, gold is range trading and remains more or less flat as it seeks momentum. As we wait for the precious metals to act on a catalyst, let’s also take a look at the Euro’s relation to the U.S. Dollar and how both impact gold.
Over the last 24 hours, the precious metals market did more or less nothing, despite the new daily decline in the USD Index. The latter is now testing its monthly and yearly lows, while the PMs are not. PMs – as a group – are not reacting to what should make them rally, and this is yet another bearish sign for the precious metals market.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Why Solar and Wind Energy Can’t Save Us / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Richard_Mills
Recently, British Petroleum (BP) went public in declaring that “peak oil demand” was reached in 2019. According to the oil major’s 2020 outlook, global oil demand will not regain levels reached last year, and that demand could soon fall rapidly, due to stronger climate action by countries, by at least 10% over the next 10 years, and up to 50% by 2040.
Demand for the fossil fuel has doubled over the past 50 years, reaching around 100 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2019.
While earlier editions of BP’s outlook stated that global demand would continue rising steadily, peaking in the mid-2030s, the latest version sees the decline as much more dramatic, with peak demand already reached in 2019, and either slowing down or plateauing over the next three decades.
The magnitude of the fall in demand depends on the degree to which global carbon emissions are addressed/ cut by governments and industry.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Buy Silver NOW! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth provides the investment case for silver.
In many ways, most of us can't wait to put 2020 behind us and call it last year.
We've experienced a once-a-century global pandemic, infecting almost 80 million people. Lockdowns caused businesses to shutter and soaring unemployment, with massive economic consequences.
If you dig a little deeper, other costs include soaring debts and deficits worldwide. We're approaching an unfathomable $280 trillion in global debt. Governments and central banks have facilitated tens of trillions in stimulus spending this year alone, and it's far from over.
The U.S. is now passing its latest $900 billion stimulus bill, promising new stimulus checks, boosting unemployment, small business aid and funds for schools and universities.
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Monday, December 28, 2020
Gold, Silver, and SPY Trend Forecasts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This second part of our special “What To Expect In 2021” article highlights our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system and is specifically authored to help you understand where trends, price rotations, and risks may set up throughout 2021. In the first part of this article, we covered the ES, NQ, and INDU symbols – highlighting how each one of these US major indexes showed a moderately deep price correction would setup in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. The INDU showed the deepest correction event with a specific “ADL Price Anomaly” setup. This second part of the series will cover Gold, Silver, and the SPY.
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Saturday, December 26, 2020
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Yellow Flag / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Most of the time during a bull market the short, intermediate and long term charts are pretty much in sync even during a consolidation phase. Consolidation patterns are needed to bring the overbought condition back to what is normal for a bull market. Consolidation patterns are notorious for wild swings both up and down to shakeout as many investors as possible before the next impulse move can begin again.
What you don’t want to see is a topping pattern such as a double top or H&S top as they are reversal patterns. It is normal to see SMALL double tops – bottoms or H&S reversal patterns at the reversal points in a big consolidation pattern, but you don’t want to see a big H&S top as a stand alone pattern especially after a strong impulse move.
Let’s start with the daily combo chart for the PM complex which shows the potential H&S bottom forming at the last reversal point in the August trading range. To be honest I don’t like today’s price action on this daily PM combo chart even though GLD, SLV, GDXJ, XGD.to and SIL are still holding support on the backtest to their necklines today. The other PM stock indexes have broken down below their respective necklines which is a warning sign the potential H&S bottoms may be failing. So far I view today’s price action as a yellow flag or warning sign to watch this area very closely.
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Saturday, December 26, 2020
Can Gold Price Shine Again With Dovish Powell? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded dovish during his press conference on December 16, where he gave a market update after the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. The Fed will remain accommodative for a long time, which should support gold prices.Last week was full of important events. First, both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines received emergency-use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration . In consequence, the first COVID-19 vaccination in the United States has already taken place, which is great news for America, as it marks the beginning of the end of the pandemic.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Gold and Miners Are Not in Santa's Bag / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Do you feel the Christmas spirit when it comes to the yellow metal and miners? Because we don’t. Multiple signs over the past few days point to bearish weeks ahead for gold and the gold miners. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - the most liquid vehicle for investors and traders to gain exposure to gold mining companies – is indicating that things are only about to go downhill from here and a lack of action from options traders only serves to confirm that.
Despite rallying by 8.7% over a three-day stretch, the GDX traded sharply lower on Friday (Dec. 18), and yet again, failed to recapture its 50-day moving average (unlike gold). Moreover, GDX also closed below its early-December intraday high, while the GLD ETF remained above its analogous price level.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Will President Biden Trigger Inflation for Gold? / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
President-elect Joe Biden is expected to increase further government spending. For this and also other reasons, there is a risk that inflation under Biden’s presidency could be higher than under Trump’s. That would be great news for gold.Let’s face it, Biden won’t have an easy presidency. And I’m not referring to the fact that he will be sworn in as the oldest president in U.S. history or that he will have to deal with the coronavirus pandemic and the process of vaccine distribution across the country. I’m referring to Biden inheriting an economy with slow growth and too much public debt . Given the debt burden, it should be clear that under Biden’s presidency, real interest rates will remain at ultra-low levels. This is how a debt trap works – the more the debt grows, the less the economy (Treasury) can afford higher interest rates .
Moreover, Biden will have to face the risk of inflation . Actually, some analysts say that the new POTUS could contribute to the rise of prices. Is it true? Will we finally see an acceleration in the inflation rate? Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 24, 2020
Silver Price Launches Toward Major Technical Breakout / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are on the move this week.
They got a boost following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement. Fed officials kept their benchmark interest rate near zero and vowed to continue injecting $120 billion per month into the bond market.
The central bank seemed unconcerned about bubble-like conditions in equity markets. Nothing seems likely to deter it from pursuing more stimulus for the foreseeable future.
The ultra-dovish Fed helped nudge the U.S. Dollar Index down. It broke below 90 on Thursday to record a new low for the year.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Silver Is Still Following Bitcoin Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Previously, I have shown how Bitcoin is leading silver higher, and vice versa. .
This makes perfect sense in these time, since it is all about the US dollar. Assets that offer a “safehaven” from US dollar meltdown will go higher in some sort of related pattern.
Here is an update on that analogue where Bitcoin is leading silver higher (you can find the analogue where silver is leading Bitcoin higher in the previous update):
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Alarming Developments in GLD ETF Reaffirms Need to Own PHYSICAL Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The world’s largest gold exchange traded fund (ETF) seems to be having a lot of trouble when it comes to accounting.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) recently appointed its 6th chief financial officer since 2014. And the problem of finding and keeping executives who are willing to certify the Fund’s accounting does not appear to be the only reason for concern at GLD.
The timing of the most recent CFO departure is particularly troubling. Laura Melman left one day prior to the Fund’s financial year end.
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Sunday, December 20, 2020
A Bigger Picture View of HUI Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
As Huey pushes his cart of rocks out of the dark and up the hill…
In NFTRH we did a lot of work managing the oncoming correction, the valid reasons behind it (these reasons are beyond the scope of this post, but don’t listen to the perma-bulls, they were more than valid and readable in advance), the now nearly 5 month old correction (technically still intact) and more recently the improved risk vs. reward after HUI hit our long-standing ‘best’ target of 280 .
There is another downside target at 260 but it may just be time for the drudgery (AKA consolidation/correction to bleed out the excesses) to end. The answer to confirm that will be left to ongoing work we do on shorter time frames, including daily charts in the weekly report and in-week updates. But for this post, I want to take a perspective look at HUI’s weekly chart.
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Saturday, December 19, 2020
Long Term Gold / US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of our US$ and Gold research, we highlighted the US Dollar vs. Gold trends and how we believe precious metals have recently bottomed while the US Dollar may be starting a broad decline. We are highlighting this because many of our friends and followers have asked us to put some research out related to the US Dollar decline. Back in November, we published an article that highlighted the Appreciation/Depreciation phases of the market. This past research article – How To Spot The End Of An Excess Phase – Part II – is an excellent review item for today’s Part II conclusion to our current article.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Gold, Silver and the Commodities Supercycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Richard_Mills
On Tuesday, Nov. 24 copper prices hit a fresh 2020 pinnacle of $3.52 per pound on the Comex in New York. The red metal’s best performance in seven years was on the strength of Chinese manufacturing and construction expanding at its fastest in a decade. The country’s manufacturing PMI for November, seen as a leading indicator of copper usage, rose to 52.1 while the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which includes both large and small firms, jumped to a 10-year high of 54.9. Any number above 50 indicates an expansion. The construction index leapt from 59.8 in October to 60.5.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Online commodity investment – Great option for investing your money / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Sumeet_Manhas
There are many number of platforms on online where you can invest more than just currencies and stocks, where the best and great option to invest your valuable money is commodities. Investing in online commodities is an option and you can get help from experts to do better trading. In fact, you can make use of different online trading website for making you invest commodities. Generally, online investments involve in handling certain types of investment transactions and the commodity trading is one of those things where people show interest in investing their money. This is where the place you buy the certain amount of commodity and sell it at the predetermined date based on the future value of the product because in order to get good profit on your investment there is always some kind of risk in losing money but this something that is very similar to all types of the investment where you do your business for profit.
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Thursday, December 17, 2020
Are you finding the effective tips to trade commodities? / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Sumeet_Manhas
If you are a newbie to trade commodities, especially in the virtual market then it is very essential thing to understand the basics about the particular industry in which you are going to start trading. There are number of approaches to take where each of the stage has different commercial things which you need to consider, these includes choice of the product to deal in the trade, techniques to be adapted and establishment of the virtual account to be carry out in the transaction process. As a first thing you need to be choosing the product in which you are going to deal with in your commodity trading. If you any substantial authority in the ecommerce circles then you can also select the goods like currencies and precious metals where this could not be a hard choice for you.
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