Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Reflation Trade Heating Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
In this first trading week of 2021, a new investment theme appears to be emerging. That theme can be summed up in a single word – reflation.
A resurgence of inflation is being priced into asset classes across the board. Stocks are rallying to new records. Shares of Tesla and alternative energy companies are going to the moon. Marijuana stocks are suddenly back in vogue. Bitcoin is going bonkers.
Crude oil, copper, and other commodities also started to break out this week. But precious metals markets pulled back sharply this morning on the heels of a bad jobs report., meaning these markets require more time to work their way back up to last year’s highs.
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Monday, January 11, 2021
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
2021 started off well for gold. It’s not surprising, as January is usually positive for the yellow metal, but the Georgia runoff results may constitute an additional bullish factor in the longer term.What a start to the new year! Gold has begun 2021 very well : as the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal (London A.M. Fix) increased from $1,891 on December 31, 2020 to $1,947 on January 5, 2021.
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Monday, January 11, 2021
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you follow our research, you already know my research team and I have authored multiple articles related to how Metals and Miners are poised for a big rally in 2021 and beyond. But do you understand what this means for other market sectors and assets? Are you ready for one of the most dynamic investing environments we’ve seen since 1945 or earlier? Gold and Miners are showing very clear signs that the Depreciation cycle phase our researchers identified recently is strongly in place.
Precious Metals vs. Miners in a Depreciation Cycle Phase
Gold and Miners are showing very clear signs that the Depreciation cycle phase our researchers identified recently is strongly in place. Both Gold and the Mining sector have been rallying since early 2016. This rally initiated in the midst of an Appreciation cycle phase (between late 2010 and the end of 2019). The rotation between Appreciation and Depreciation cycle phases directly correlates with the underlying strength of the US Dollar, precious metals, and other market sector trends. At this point, the new Depreciation cycle phase means the global markets will transition away from Appreciation phase trends and into new defensive/sector rotation trends.
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Sunday, January 10, 2021
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The thing that most likely raised quite a few eyebrows this week was – in addition to gold’s recent move by itself – the fact that gold rallied mostly without the dollar’s help. Yesterday (Jan. 5) I wrote that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and that a single session rarely changes much.
We didn’t have to wait for long – the situation seems to be getting back to normal.
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Friday, January 08, 2021
Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth discusses the confluence of factors that points to the gold bull market having plenty of upside ahead. In investing, as in life, perspective is everything.
To some, gold at $1,525 as we started out 2020 seemed expensive. Today, it's trading at $1,940, producing a 27% gain.
And yet, from several viewpoints, gold still looks cheap at current prices. Debt, easy money and geopolitical risks are ever present. And these have all been tough on the U.S. dollar. Ongoing weakness in the greenback looks set to continue, providing a huge tailwind for gold prices.
So much, well beyond the kitchen sink, has been thrown at trying to support the economy and kick-start activity. Yet we can't ignore vital indicators. Negative-yielding debt levels, ongoing negative real interest rates and anemic money velocity despite exploding money supply mean rising hard asset prices look inevitable.
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Friday, January 08, 2021
Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the dollar's fall and what it means for gold. We now have a very rare setup for gold which is in position to "go ballistic" as the dollar collapses. The dollar is being intentionally destroyed by the Fed, which is creating dollars in vast unprecedented quantities in order to buy up distressed assets on the cheap and in order to pave the way for the new "digital dollar." We are in the last stages of the fiat endgame where money creation goes vertical, quickly leading to it becoming worthless, as happened in Venezuela and Zimbabwe, and of course hyperinflation is a great way to pay off debt, because you can do so with worthless currency.
One worry that has been vexing would be investors in the precious metals sector in recent weeks is that gold and silver won't rise much because big banks like JP Morgan will cap it by dumping onto the paper market. The key point to keep in mind is that gold is "real money" and this being so the idea that a currency like the dollar can collapse towards zero and gold won't go up because the banks will be selling it on the paper market is both absurd and ridiculous – what would happen is that an untenable massive gap would develop between the price on the paper market and the price on the physical market, and the paper market would become rapidly irrelevant and obsolete, so we don't have to worry about that. In fact, to the extent that they are actually suppressing the gold price, all they are doing is creating a "pressure cooker" effect that will lead to a massive upside explosion, but you certainly don't want to wait for that to happen before you take positions across the sector.
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Friday, January 08, 2021
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold ended 2020 at $1,891, partially thanks to monetary policy easing. In 2021, the Fed may not trigger a comparable rally in gold, but it should offer gold prices some support.Welcome to 2021! I hope that it will be a wonderful year for all of you; a much healthier, calmer and normal year than 2020 was. And even more profitable of course! Indeed, at least gold bulls could be satisfied with the last year, in which the price of gold jumped from $1,523 to $1,891 ( London A.M. Fix )! It means that the yellow metal gained more than 24 percent, as the chart below shows.
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Thursday, January 07, 2021
Time to ‘Reset’ Your Investment Portfolio in 2021? / Commodities / Investing 2021
By: MoneyMetals
If global elites have their way, 2021 will be the year of the “Great Reset.”
They believe now, after the coronavirus and lockdown policies have inflicted a heavy toll on the public, is the perfect opportunity to implement their technocratic vision.
Their longstanding plans to transform economies in the name of various “sustainability” and “equity” goals are being aggressively implemented.
World Economic Forum chairman Klaus Schwab vows, "a renewed focus on public health and resilience, net-zero pledges and the arrival of Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics—all but ensure that 2021 will be a new 'Year Zero.'"
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Wednesday, January 06, 2021
Stock market frenzy- Ride the bandwagon but be sure to take along some gold coins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
What is it with billionaires and gold?
When billionaire Sam Zell warned at the end of December that the dollar’s status as the world’s principal reserve currency was in jeopardy, it nudged something in the back of the mind about the number of billionaires over the past year who issued similar warnings. The wealthiest among us, it seems, are also the most vocal and proactive about the dangers they see dead ahead. Meanwhile, the unschooled masses utilize online investment portals from Robinhood to Schwab to dash headlong into the most wildly overvalued stock market in history.
In a recent MarketWatch interview, Charlie Munger, another billionaire and Warren Buffett’s business partner called the current stock market frenzy “the most dramatic thing that’s almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance.” He believes that “we’re in very uncharted waters. Nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing now for a very extended period without some kind of trouble. We’re very near the edge of playing with fire.” Ray Dalio, who heads up the world’s largest hedge fund (Bridgewater Securities) and another billionaire, believes that the world is likely to change in “shocking ways” over the next five years, including a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar: “Within the next five years you could see a situation in which foreigners who have been lending money to the United States won’t want to.”
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Tuesday, January 05, 2021
Precious Metals Resuming Bull Market, Gold, Silver, GDX Trend Forecasts 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Ken_Ticehurst
Gold and silver continue to be bullish, the gold miners are mixed and bitcoin continues to outperform. Despite the unprecedented events of 2020 the precious metals have had a positive year, the pandemic brought volatility to the market with a sharp drop followed by a continuation of the upward trend that had begun before Covid disrupted our lives.
Unprecendented global liquidity since the pandemic has been the catalyst for much of the recent reflation in markets, Central Bank willingness to maintain ultra low rates, Government deficits, stimulus packages and infrastructure projetcs are all adding to rising markets.
Whilst Coronavirus is still with us it seems as though we are over the worst of it, with better testing and vaccines available to us, barring an unprecedented mutation it is unlikely to provide no more than a mild headwind to investors as we head to the peak of the Northern Hemisphere flu season.
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Monday, January 04, 2021
A Year Like No Other for Precious Metals… and Everything Else / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Well, it’s been a year like no other in so many ways. “Unprecedented” is an often-overused term. But there truly is no precedent for much of what transpired in public health, politics, the monetary system, the economy, and markets.
More than 300,000 Americans reportedly lost their lives while infected with COVID-19. Less widely publicized was a spike in deaths of despair due to lockdowns and related social ills that drove all too many into depression and drug addiction. Or the deaths that were caused, or will be caused, by Americans putting off or avoiding doctor’s visits.
America’s cities burned while the mainstream media egged on anti-police protests. In their aftermath, record surges in murders and other violent crimes followed across the country.
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Monday, January 04, 2021
An In- Depth Look At Gold Price Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Gold plays a duel role as a commodity and as a monetary metal which makes it important to keep a close eye on. During the early stages of a commodity bull market Gold will generally lead the whole complex higher. When the troops see the General leading they will feel more emboldened to have their turn at a bull market. We’ve seen this scenario playing out since the Spring of this year where most of the important commodities have bottomed out and are beginning their new respective bull markets. Gold actually bottomed in late December of 2015 while commodities continued in their bear markets into the Spring of 2020.
As a monetary metal some investors like to use Gold as a safe way to store wealth or as a hedge against inflation. Other investors like to have Gold in their portfolio in case the stock markets crash and the economy goes into a deep tailspin and never recovers again. One thing we do know is that Gold will always have a monetary value and not go to zero which is possible with an individual stock.
In this in-depth look at Gold we’ll look at it from the daily to quarterly charts, in bar and line charts and ratio combo charts which will paint the history for gold starting from the 1970’s to the present. When you finish reading this post you should have a strong understanding of where Gold has been and where it is likely to go based on the Chartology. There are no absolutes when it comes to the markets, but as we know history never repeats exactly the same but can rhyme to a certain degree.
Let’s start with a daily chart for Gold and then work our way out to the longer term charts and try to put all the pieces of the puzzle together to form a working scenario we can use to help guide us going forward. Without a game plan or working scenario one is left to the emotional destruction, from a psychological perspective, that ruins most investors that don’t have a true understanding of how markets work.
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Friday, January 01, 2021
Gold and Silver Supply/Demand Fundamentals for 2021 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The supply and demand fundamentals for precious metals markets got thrown into disarray this year, leading to heightened volatility – first on the downside, then on the upside.
Although gold and silver will finish 2020 below their highs for the year, gold is still headed for an annual return of close to 25%; silver around 45%.
Can hard assets investors look forward to further price appreciation in 2021?
Yes, but…there are some near-term risks to the favorable long-term supply/demand outlook.
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Thursday, December 31, 2020
Gold Price Seeks Direction as USDX Slips / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As of Wednesday (Dec. 30) morning, gold is range trading and remains more or less flat as it seeks momentum. As we wait for the precious metals to act on a catalyst, let’s also take a look at the Euro’s relation to the U.S. Dollar and how both impact gold.
Over the last 24 hours, the precious metals market did more or less nothing, despite the new daily decline in the USD Index. The latter is now testing its monthly and yearly lows, while the PMs are not. PMs – as a group – are not reacting to what should make them rally, and this is yet another bearish sign for the precious metals market.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Why Solar and Wind Energy Can’t Save Us / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Richard_Mills
Recently, British Petroleum (BP) went public in declaring that “peak oil demand” was reached in 2019. According to the oil major’s 2020 outlook, global oil demand will not regain levels reached last year, and that demand could soon fall rapidly, due to stronger climate action by countries, by at least 10% over the next 10 years, and up to 50% by 2040.
Demand for the fossil fuel has doubled over the past 50 years, reaching around 100 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2019.
While earlier editions of BP’s outlook stated that global demand would continue rising steadily, peaking in the mid-2030s, the latest version sees the decline as much more dramatic, with peak demand already reached in 2019, and either slowing down or plateauing over the next three decades.
The magnitude of the fall in demand depends on the degree to which global carbon emissions are addressed/ cut by governments and industry.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2020
Buy Silver NOW! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth provides the investment case for silver.
In many ways, most of us can't wait to put 2020 behind us and call it last year.
We've experienced a once-a-century global pandemic, infecting almost 80 million people. Lockdowns caused businesses to shutter and soaring unemployment, with massive economic consequences.
If you dig a little deeper, other costs include soaring debts and deficits worldwide. We're approaching an unfathomable $280 trillion in global debt. Governments and central banks have facilitated tens of trillions in stimulus spending this year alone, and it's far from over.
The U.S. is now passing its latest $900 billion stimulus bill, promising new stimulus checks, boosting unemployment, small business aid and funds for schools and universities.
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Monday, December 28, 2020
Gold, Silver, and SPY Trend Forecasts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This second part of our special “What To Expect In 2021” article highlights our proprietary Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system and is specifically authored to help you understand where trends, price rotations, and risks may set up throughout 2021. In the first part of this article, we covered the ES, NQ, and INDU symbols – highlighting how each one of these US major indexes showed a moderately deep price correction would setup in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. The INDU showed the deepest correction event with a specific “ADL Price Anomaly” setup. This second part of the series will cover Gold, Silver, and the SPY.
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Saturday, December 26, 2020
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Yellow Flag / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Most of the time during a bull market the short, intermediate and long term charts are pretty much in sync even during a consolidation phase. Consolidation patterns are needed to bring the overbought condition back to what is normal for a bull market. Consolidation patterns are notorious for wild swings both up and down to shakeout as many investors as possible before the next impulse move can begin again.
What you don’t want to see is a topping pattern such as a double top or H&S top as they are reversal patterns. It is normal to see SMALL double tops – bottoms or H&S reversal patterns at the reversal points in a big consolidation pattern, but you don’t want to see a big H&S top as a stand alone pattern especially after a strong impulse move.
Let’s start with the daily combo chart for the PM complex which shows the potential H&S bottom forming at the last reversal point in the August trading range. To be honest I don’t like today’s price action on this daily PM combo chart even though GLD, SLV, GDXJ, XGD.to and SIL are still holding support on the backtest to their necklines today. The other PM stock indexes have broken down below their respective necklines which is a warning sign the potential H&S bottoms may be failing. So far I view today’s price action as a yellow flag or warning sign to watch this area very closely.
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Saturday, December 26, 2020
Can Gold Price Shine Again With Dovish Powell? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded dovish during his press conference on December 16, where he gave a market update after the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. The Fed will remain accommodative for a long time, which should support gold prices.Last week was full of important events. First, both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines received emergency-use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration . In consequence, the first COVID-19 vaccination in the United States has already taken place, which is great news for America, as it marks the beginning of the end of the pandemic.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Gold and Miners Are Not in Santa's Bag / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Do you feel the Christmas spirit when it comes to the yellow metal and miners? Because we don’t. Multiple signs over the past few days point to bearish weeks ahead for gold and the gold miners. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - the most liquid vehicle for investors and traders to gain exposure to gold mining companies – is indicating that things are only about to go downhill from here and a lack of action from options traders only serves to confirm that.
Despite rallying by 8.7% over a three-day stretch, the GDX traded sharply lower on Friday (Dec. 18), and yet again, failed to recapture its 50-day moving average (unlike gold). Moreover, GDX also closed below its early-December intraday high, while the GLD ETF remained above its analogous price level.
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