Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 01, 2021
How You Could've Spotted the Start of Silver's Price Slide / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
If you're a close observer of the metals market, you know that the price of silver has taken a tumble during the past several days.
Elliott wave analysis was a big help in identifying the price turn, which occurred on Jan. 6.
Indeed, here's a chart and commentary from the Jan. 6 issue of our Monday-Wednesday-Friday U.S. Short Term Update, an Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets:
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Friday, January 29, 2021
Why the Gold Bull Market Will Run for Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, the editor of Gold Resource Investor, traces previous gold bull markets and lays out what he believes is in store for the current one.
If we want to make intelligent forecasts and decisions about our future, we need to understand not only where we are today, but also how we got here. So, let's look at previous gold bull markets for some insight on what we might expect from this one.
Gold enjoyed a tremendous bull market in the 1970s. That decade was fraught with geopolitical uncertainty, an oil embargo, and big inflation to name a few. Of course, many of these factors were already in place and building up in the years before, but they came together by the early 1970s.
One of the biggest historical events was when U.S. President Nixon cut the dollar's tie to gold in August 1971. Until then, foreign nations could convert their U.S. dollar holdings to gold upon request. Many began doing so as they saw the U.S. rapidly increase spending, which weakened the U.S. dollar.
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Friday, January 29, 2021
Will Biden’s Executive Blitzkrieg Defeat Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
A new sheriff is in in town, and he’s making some rearrangements. Will the new order of things support the price of gold?What a blitzkrieg! Joe Biden certainly wastes no time in signing executive orders. Since inauguration, he introduced several policies, including mandating masks on federal property, in airports and on certain public transportation, and the end of a travel bank on some countries. Biden also terminated the construction of the wall at the Mexican border, halted the withdrawal from the WHO and placed the U.S. back on the path to rejoining the Paris climate accord.
We’re seeing a reversal of many of Trump’s policies. The new President’s actions shouldn’t materially affect the gold market , but if they manage to restore widespread confidence in the U.S. government, they could limit the safe-haven demand for gold .
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
Demand for Physical Bullion Surges – Will It Break Paper Markets? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Last year felt like a pivot point in U.S. history. The pandemic and election left the nation ideologically divided.
There seem to be only three resolutions going forward.
America will face an increasingly authoritarian federal government ruling over a largely apathetic populace, the nation will splinter, or leadership will emerge which is somehow capable of bridging the ideological divide between the American left and the right.
Gold bugs aren’t betting on bridges being built any time soon. Demand for physical metal ratcheted up to a new all-time high in January.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
After Recent Gold High - Where to Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is suffering a hang-over after it’s early January highs, while the EUR/USD pair is buckling - so when gold declines, where will its bottom be?
After injecting itself with Janet Yellen’s stimulus sentiment, gold came down from its highs on Friday (Jan. 22).
And like the GDX ETF, it’s important to put gold’s recent run into context. For starters, gold is still trading below its August declining resistance line, it topped at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point (which I warned about previously ) and the yellow metal remains well-off its January highs.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2021
Will Inflation Make Gold Shine in 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation will be one of the greatest upside risks for gold this year. Will it materialize and make gold shine?The report about gold in 2021 would be incomplete without the outlook for inflation . We have already written about it recently, but this topic is worth further examination. After all, higher inflation is believed to be one of the biggest tail risks in the coming months or years, and one of the greatest upside risks for gold this year .
Most economists and investors still believe that inflation is dead. After all, the only way to justify the central banks’ unprecedentedly dovish actions is the premise of low inflation. And the only way to justify the buoyant stock market amid the new highs in the number of Americans in hospital with COVID-19 is the expectation of an inflationless economic recovery this year. In other words, many people forecast the return to the Goldilocks economy after the end of the pandemic .
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Why You Shouldn’t Get Excited About Gold Price Mini-Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold seems to be sleeping off its latest mini-rally and lacks the momentum to reach new highs. What happens from here? Has the USD bottomed? And what does it mean when we factor in the EUR/USD pair and poor economic indicators from Europe into the equation?
Not much happened yesterday (Jan. 21), but what happened was relatively informative. And by “relatively” I mean literally just that. Gold moved lower yesterday and in today’s pre-market trading, doing so despite another small move lower in the USD Index. The moves are not big, but they are meaningful. They show that gold’s inauguration-day rally was likely a temporary blip on the radar screen instead of being a game-changer.
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Monday, January 25, 2021
Precious Metals Could Decline Before their Next Attempt to Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields. The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions. Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector). Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.
Weekly custom valuations index chart
The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below. The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020. Gold also peaked at this very same time. This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector.
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Friday, January 22, 2021
Silver Price 2021 Roadmap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth, the editor of Silver Stock Investor, looks at silver's bull markets since the 1970s and discusses what he thinks lies ahead. There's no consensus on whether silver is in its second or third secular bull market since the 1970s. That's because people define bull markets in different ways.
But as I'll show you, it's not that important.
What we do know is that silver enjoyed a huge bull market from about 1971 until 1980, and then another major bull run from about 2001 until 2011.
Most secular bull markets run through a period, usually about half-ways on the time scale, where the commodity's price falls by about 50%, sometimes more. This is an observation by the legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers.
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Friday, January 22, 2021
Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold moved higher as the USD Index moved lower in today’s pre-market trading. Before providing you with my thoughts on why that happened and what the implications are, let’s see exactly what transpired.
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Friday, January 22, 2021
How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Anyone who owns precious metals, mining shares or metals' ETFs knows the drill.
First, gold and silver begin to establish an uptrend on the charts. Analysts (like us) start writing about how prices are getting ready to make an upside run.
Then "out of nowhere" thousands of highly margined futures contracts hit the market on the short side, "re-painting" the charts, sending terror into the hearts of stackers and those who believe in "honest money."
The reality is that honest money is being manipulated for personal gain by dishonest traders, enabled by "regulators" who, to put it charitably, look the other way.
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Thursday, January 21, 2021
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The price of gold has declined further amid incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus and poor economic data, which is a bearish sign.The weakness in the gold market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix declined below $1,840 last Friday (the price of the yellow metal later declined even further, i.e., below $1,830).
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Thursday, January 21, 2021
How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom / Commodities / Cannabis
By: OilPrice_Com
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Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As investors await the incoming Biden administration and the uncertainties that a transition of power may bring, precious metals markets regained some ground through Thursday’s close but have pulled back again on Friday, especially silver and platinum.
Precious metals prices and financial markets have seemingly been unaffected by recent political turmoil. Investors have been nonchalant in the face of Capitol unrest and a second impeachment of President Donald Trump – not to mention fresh new records in daily COVID deaths.
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Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Hurray! The disastrous year of 2020, which brought about the COVID-19 pandemic , the Great Lockdown , and the economic crisis , is over! Now, the question is what will 2021 be like – both for the U.S. economy and the gold market.
To provide an answer, below I analyze the most important economic trends for the next year and their implications for the yellow metal.
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Monday, January 18, 2021
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold/SPX indicated the excess and the gold miners are correcting that excess
In and around the August time frame we noted (in NFTRH) high risk to the gold miners because the price of HUI had gotten a million miles ahead of gold’s ratio to the stock market. That was typical bit in the mouth enthusiasm by the gold “community”, as even Warren Buffett bought a gold stock (and signaled a top).
This chart (and another I have like it) revealed to us in real time the excessive condition. Could the miners have just kept going, into a bubble of their own? Sure, but very unlikely. Amid the bubble making elsewhere gold, silver and the miners are doing the right thing… and they are doing nothing that they did not do several times in the bull market circa 2001-2007. Those bull market grinds were interminable, but ultimately gave way to grand new highs when the healthy corrective work was complete.
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Monday, January 18, 2021
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The price of gold remains at $1,850, and the key drivers are higher bond yields and a stronger risk appetite.Last week, the yellow metal tanked below $1,900 again, and it hasn’t rebounded since the plunge – instead, the price of gold has stayed at around $1,850.
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Friday, January 15, 2021
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
What a week! First gold soared to almost $1,960, but then its price (London P.M. Fix) plunged to $1,863 on January 8, as the chart below shows.This is quite strange (and bearish) behavior, given what happened last week. First, there were violent pro-Trump protests in Washington D.C. The rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol. During these riots, five people died. Given the chaos in the capital, gold, which is a safe-haven asset , should shine.
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Friday, January 15, 2021
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger ruminates on how the storming of the U.S. Capitol has affected both America's reputation and the precious metals markets, as well as on the value of "value."
The events of this week are dominating the news cycle, with a sitting president days away from being replaced while Congressional and Senatorial leaders debate whether he should be impeached immediately.
If I were having a chat with Mr. Trump, I would advise him to refrain from reading his own press clippings because they will only offer you glimpses of past glory and never reveal the reality of the moment. It's like that great story where Gordie Howe asks a hungover rookie to pick up his game, to which the rookie replies, "I had four goals last night; I can afford a night off." Gordie placed his size fifteen hand around the kid's neck, slowly squeezing, and said "Son, you are only as good as your last shift." Trump should have been on the bench to hear that.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Ken_Ticehurst
Below is our long term gold forecast, it continues to be bullish on a monthly basis, despite the turbulence of 2020 gold has performed well and a pause for a few months is entirely reasonable given the speed of its initial acceleration.
As you can see from our monthly chart, gold is clearly at significant levels - hovering around the 2011 highs, the underlying structure of the market is still very positive (big blue line) and the bull signal (small blue line) which turned positive in March 2018, still remains bullish. We think a monthly close above $2000 in the next few months would be a significant moment.
From the lows of late 2018 gold has quietly performed well relative to the S&P 500, we have included below our weekly and monthly GOLD/SPX ratio forecasts, you can see on a monthly basis that gold is cheap relative to the SPX and on a weekly basis we are approaching the long term floor. We will be looking for this ratio to begin to turn during 2021.
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