Monday, March 07, 2022
M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Ukrainian people have sleep walked into a nightmare that they did not see coming, neither did much of that which purports to be the mainstream press. However my consistent view since late January (AI Stocks Multi Buying Levels to Capitalise on the Stock Market Panic of 2022) has been that -
a. Russia WILL invade Ukraine.
b. That Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine.
c. That Putin is prepared to destroy the WHOLE of Ukraine, flatten every city to achieve victory.
And then we had the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if the war did not go his way.
And after the war comes the Moldova War and Putin could even target NATO baltic states!
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Monday, March 07, 2022
Sanctions Threat Already Wipes Out Almost all Russian Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Crude Oil Climbs High. Is It Enough to Enjoy a Better View?
The threat of sanctions caused a stir in the markets: WTI spiked above $130 and Brent is nearing the $140 mark. Where is crude oil going next?
A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar again on Monday, as stock markets feared persistent inflation and a consequent economic slowdown.
On the US dollar side, the continued rally of the greenback has propelled the dollar index (DXY) towards higher levels, as it is now approaching the three-figure mark ($100), even though it has not had a huge impact on crude oil, other petroleum products, or any other commodities in general. What we rather witness here is the greenback’s safe haven effect attracting investors, much like gold would tend to act in a “store of value” role.
Monday, March 07, 2022
Stock Market Peculiar Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with.
If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come.
Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback.
Monday, March 07, 2022
A Recession Unlike Any Other / Economics / Recession 2022
By: Michael_Pento
The U.S. economy is already deteriorating due to the humongous fiscal and monetary cliffs. These cliffs are now being compounded by the war in Eastern Europe and near record-high inflation. And, the Fed's "PUT" is much lower and smaller in size than Wall Street believes.The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the negative supply shocks that are already in place due to COVID-19. Worsening bottlenecks will combine with rising inflation to produce a contraction in global growth. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil supply and exports 18% of the world's wheat consumption. Ukraine accounts for 25% of global wheat production. Sanctions and war will serve to slow the economy further and send prices for these vital commodities even higher.
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Monday, March 07, 2022
The Tragedy of Ukraine’s Abyss - Three Decades of Misguided Geopolitics / Politics / Ukraine War
By: Dan_Steinbock
The Russia-Ukraine war was not warranted. Ukrainians despair for peace. Russia needs security. China offers development. But Blackwater, US, NATO and the far-right Ukrainian paramilitaries seek something very different.
In his TV address of February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced three decades of NATO expansion and broken pledges to Russia. Moscow did not intend to occupy Ukraine but wanted to “demilitarize and de-nazify" the country. As bombs exploded in several Ukrainian cities, Putin’s speech was discounted in the West, even as Facebook reversed its ban on users praising the Azov Battalion, a Ukrainian neo-Nazi white supremacist military unit.
In reality, Putin's address was not a rogue autocrat’s conspiracy fantasy.
Sunday, March 06, 2022
"Shooting Stars" of the Stock Market: "Don’t Be Fooled by This" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"A funny thing happened on the way to the revolution"
A meme stock has been defined as “the shares of a company that have gained a cult-like following online and through social media platforms.”
This “following” is largely comprised of novice investors who hope to make a quick profit. You may remember two well-publicized examples of meme stocks back in 2021: Gamestop and AMC Entertainment. There have been others.
Well, Robinhood Markets has been described as “the brokerage behind the meme stock revolution.”
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Sunday, March 06, 2022
Fed’s Tightening Cycle: Bullish or Bearish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This month, the Fed is expected to hike interest rates. Contrary to popular belief, the tightening doesn't have to be adverse for gold. What does history show?March 2022 – the Fed is supposed to end its quantitative easing and hike the federal funds rate for the first time during recovery from a pandemic crisis . After the liftoff, the Fed will probably also start reducing the size of its mammoth balance sheet and raise interest rates a few more times. Thus, the tightening of monetary policy is slowly becoming a reality. The golden question is: how will the yellow metal behave under these conditions?
Let’s look into the past. The last tightening cycle of 2015-2019 was rather positive for gold prices. The yellow metal rallied in this period from $1,068 to $1,320 (I refer here to monthly averages), gaining about 24%, as the chart below shows.
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Sunday, March 06, 2022
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.
As we’ve seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.
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Friday, March 04, 2022
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A quick recap on the state of play (saving time by using existing charts) in terms of my trend expectations as of September 2021 for the Dow to correct form early January to at least Mid February, which my CI18 Switch of 5th Dec deepened somewhat.
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Friday, March 04, 2022
Gold Miners – Biggest Losers? That’s What Oil Says / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After the war-driven gold rally, oil is starting to outperform. History between these two has already shown that someone may suffer. Many suggest: gold miners.
The precious metals corrected some of their gains yesterday, but overall, not much changed in them. However, quite a lot happened in crude oil, and in today’s analysis we’ll focus on what it implies for the precious metals market and, in particular – for mining stocks.
Friday, March 04, 2022
The Put / Call Ratio – A Technique Used To Gauge Stock Market Extremes / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Perhaps you’ve heard of the “Put / Call Ratio” (PCR) and been unsure of exactly what it is or when and how to use it.
First, a quick review of what Calls and Puts are. Calls are option contracts that increase in value from a RISE in the price of the underlying stock or index. Puts are option contracts that increase in value from a DROP in the price of the underlying stock or index.
Let’s jump in and see what’s “under the hood” and how we might use that to better inform our decision-making as traders and investors.
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Thursday, March 03, 2022
America’s Trade Deficit: An Enormous Concern / Economics / US Economy
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Another milestone (or more accurately millstone) was recently passed by the U.S. economy as the January trade deficit surged to an all-time record high of $107.6 billion, up some $26 billion from December’s $80.7 billion imbalance.*
Like the gigantic federal budget deficit, the trade imbalance is no longer talked about by the financial press. There has been little criticism of President Biden on either matter nor are Administration officials questioned about how things can be reversed. In fact, some commentators bizarrely contend that trade deficits show how robust an economy actually is!
The trade deficit was supposed to be alleviated by former President Trump who vowed throughout the 2016 campaign that he would rectify the situation and repeatedly ridiculed U.S. trade negotiators for their lack of financial acumen. He touted that his “friendship” with world leaders, most notably Chinese President Xi Jinping, would result in favorable trade deals for the country.
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Thursday, March 03, 2022
Nuclear World War 3 Begins in Ukraine, China to Blitzkrieg Taiwan - The END! / Politics / Ukraine War
By: N_Walayat
The opening shots to World War 3 have been fired in Ukraine, a war that Ukraine was destined to lose form the outset regardless of the ramblings of clueless journalists many of whom were completely blind to what Putin was about to implement, just as most remain blind to what comes next, China;s blitzkrieg 'lightening war' on Taiwan, an aircraft and missile barrage round the clock shock and awe to soften Taiwan ahead of an amphibious landing, all timed to take all by surprise so that the US never has the chance to mobile forces to come to Taiwan's defence. That's what's coming next. With Putin after digesting Ukraine eyeing his next target which is likely to be Ukraine bordering Moldova that will further entrench THE PATH TO A NUCLEAR WORLD WAR 3! THE END!
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Thursday, March 03, 2022
Cloned Car 1 Year Later Update, Expired MOT Tactic - UK Cars Cloning Scam / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
It is now just over 1 year since I became aware that my car had been cloned the trigger point being that someone had got a care under my plate MOT'd BEFORE ME! Which an investigation by the DVSA confirmed that a cloned car had been presented at a garage for MOT over a hundred miles from where I reside in a Town that I have never visited, so I did all of the usual stuff i.e. informing the DVLA, Police etc as well as my own detective work in tracking down the person who cloned my car! Anyway following numerous requests this is an update of what has transpired since including my recent tactic of letting my MOT expire, leaving the car parked on my drive for a few weeks to see what happens for if the car plate was still cloned then surely ANPR camera's would flag it to the police to intercept.
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Thursday, March 03, 2022
Why I changed my mind on Netflix / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
Remember the streaming wars?A few years ago, every news outlet was having a field day debating which company would conquer American TV.
Netflix… Disney… Amazon… Apple… and a slew of other firms are still battling it out for streaming supremacy.
With over half a billion paying subscribers between them, you could say they all “won.”
- But there’s been one big loser in the war…
Thursday, March 03, 2022
Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” ― George Orwell
“Every war when it comes, or before it comes, is represented not as a war but as an act of self-defense against a homicidal maniac.” ― George Orwell
The smell of tyranny is in the air. The level of propaganda, disinformation, and mistruth has reached astounding heights, as the ruling oligarchy/Deep State/globalist cabal are thrashing about violently because their frauds are being exposed on a daily basis. This shift to the tyranny of force has massive implications for everyone on the planet. When every quote from Orwell’s 1984 applies every day to everything swirling around us, you begin to realize we are in the midst of a dystopian nightmare which gets more ghoulish by the day.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2022
The Quantum AI Mega-trend - m = f - Everything is Waving! / Companies / Quantum Computing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Imagine in the 1960's most had little idea of the world that the transistor would herald beyond that of maybe transistor radios and colour Tv's! Personal computers weren't even in most peoples imagination given that the movies and media of the day painted a picture of computing equating to giant super computers.
Imagine in the 1970's when few paid attention to Intel's 4004 processor that started the microprocessor ball rolling all thanks to Japan's Nippon Calculating Machine Corporation (Busicom) that contracted the tech start up to design 12 custom chips for them, in response to which rather than developing 12 custom chips Intel decided it was more cost effective to just develop one multipurpose processor that could be programmed and so was born what would become the 4004. Only one problem the Japanese company Busicom owned the rights to the chip! Intel eventually offered to return Busicom's $60k investment in exchange for the rights which the struggling Japanese company agreed to and the rest is history! Or will be when IBM gave Intel what it had been seeking for a decade, a big buyer with deep pockets to commit to volume orders for it's processors by ordering 10,000 units per year from 1982 onwards. All forgotten today just how small Intel was for a good 13 years since inception and that it was only when IBM started making use of Intel processors in IBM PC's that Intel started to take off.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2022
Preparing for the Future: How to Build Your Personal Finances / Personal_Finance / Financial Education
By: Submissions
It's often easy to think about being more disciplined and building your personal finances by saving for a rainy day. Unfortunately, things take a drastic turn for most when it comes to execution. Preparing for the future isn't easy when you're struggling to make ends meet at the present moment.
Your ability to balance your lifestyle will dictate whether you have enough discipline to save money and build your personal finances without the stress. While it might seem challenging at first, there's a path you can take toward success without necessarily taking too many risks in the process. Instead, a willingness to prepare and make the most out of the situation will get you far when building your personal finances.
Wednesday, March 02, 2022
See what's next for Europe and US WAR Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: EWI
Hi Reader,
You are probably wondering what war in Ukraine means for the markets. Instead of trying to deconstruct a never-ending barrage of mostly useless information, you can let our friends at Elliott Wave International help.
Now through March 7, they are offering you practical, objective answers in two events running concurrently:
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Tuesday, March 01, 2022
Russia Sanctions Puts Global Financial System on the Brink / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The global financial system is on the brink of being thrown into chaos.The United States and Europe moved to target Russian central bank reserves and sever the country’s banking system from the SWIFT global financial network.
It is the financial equivalent of the nuclear option – something the Biden administration had explicitly declined to invoke last week before abruptly announcing the move on Saturday.
Moscow considers it to be an act of war. An increasingly bellicose Russian President Vladimir Putin could retaliate against the U.S. and its allies in a number of ways, including cutting off energy supplies, launching cyber-attacks on financial institutions, and further partnering with China to create alternative payments platforms that challenge U.S. dollar hegemony. Read full article... Read full article...