Wednesday, July 11, 2018
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, quite a bit of news has been originating from Malaysia, China and other areas of South East Asia. Much of it is concerns with multi-billion dollar projects and excessive corruption and graft. Malaysia is taking the lead with this issue so far with the new Mahathir administration. Yet, we believe these issues are far-reaching and could result in quite a bit of market turmoil over the next few months – possibly much longer.
What is at risk is the exposure of “cooked books” across much of China, India and likely throughout the globe with infrastructure and real estate projects that were designed to boost numbers while hiding real economic concerns. You may remember we alerted our members and the general public to this concern in March 2018 – nearly 4 months ago in this blog post. If you have not read our multi-part research post regarding how China has set itself up for a massive economic collapse, please take a minute to read all of our earlier research.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Bullish Gold Markets in the Big Picture? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold markets and sees the potential for a new "bull leg."
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now up.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
A Public Bank for Los Angeles? City Council Puts It to the Voters / Politics / Banking Stocks
By: Ellen_Brown
Voters in Los Angeles will be the first in the country to weigh in on a public banking mandate, after the City Council agreed on June 29th to put a measure on the November ballot that would allow the city to form its own bank. The charter for the nation’s second-largest city currently prohibits the creation of industrial or commercial enterprises by the city without voter approval. The measure, introduced by City Council President Herb Wesson, would allow the city to create a public bank, although state and federal law hurdles would still need to be cleared.
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dan_Amerman
Would you have appreciated a single number that could have given you a clear and unmistakable warning before the tech stock bubble collapsed? How about an unequivocal mathematical warning in 2006 that major financial trouble was on the way, well before the problems of 2007 and 2008?
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
An Elixir for Argentina’s Fiscal Dysfunction / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Argentina and its peso are in trouble, again. By officially replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar, Argentina’s peso nightmare would end. But, in a country in which fiscal fiddlers know many tricks, some fiscal rules must also be added to the prescription.
Dollarization should impose a hard budget constraint on Argentina. Under dollarization, which exists in 33 countries, hard budget constraints are imposed because dollarized countries must finance government spending by taxing or borrowing in either domestic or international bond markets. They cannot finance government expenditures by using a central bank, which issues a domestic currency. As a result, fiscal deficits, when they occur, tend to be relatively small. But, there has been one noteworthy, unusual case: Zimbabwe. This case merits our attention.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On July 9th, Argentina will celebrate its 202nd birthday. The biggest spoiler during the festivities will be the beleaguered peso. It’s not the first time the peso has been a spoiler. Since its founding, Argentina has been burdened with numerous economic crises. Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). To list but a few of these crises: 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, and 2018(?).
By the time its 100th birthday rolled around, Argentina had experienced only three major economic crises. Alas, the next 102 years have been much more eventful, with eight currency crises, not counting 2018.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Can the Stock Market Close Higher For a Record 10th Year in a Row? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 Total Return Index is slightly different than the S&P 500 Index in that it includes the dividend yield that companies throw off. Hence, the S&P 500’s Total Return Index tends to go up a little more than the S&P 500 each year.
As of the end of 2017, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has gone up 9 years in a row (2009 – 2017, inclusive). If the Total Return Index closes higher at the end of this year, it will set a new record for 10 years higher in a row.
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Tuesday, July 10, 2018
As Trade Wars Broaden, Europe Is the Key to Future / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the Trump White House has started the “biggest trade war” in history, diplomatic activity is escalating from the transatlantic axis to China and the EU – America’s next tariff target. After the meeting of China and Central and East European (CEE) countries in Sofia, Bulgaria, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang rushed to the fifth round of intergovernmental consultations between China and Germany.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Why Life Insurance Is A Must In Financial Planning / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Anwar_Hossain
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while. Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets/economies as well as supply/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.
Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe. When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high. When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand. The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
BREAKING: New Tech Just Unlocked A Trillion Barrels Of Oil / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, July 09, 2018
How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies / Currencies / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not so long ago, Asian currencies anticipated depreciation pressures to increase, due to monetary normalization. Yet, it is the trade wars that are now penalizing all currencies, particularly in exporting economies.In January, I gave a global economic briefing on the outlook of the Philippines in the Nordic Chamber of Commerce in Manila. At the time, the peso was still about 50.80 to U.S. dollar. Among other things, I projected the peso to soften to 54 or more toward the end of the year, which I considered largely the net effect of normalization in advanced economies, elevated trade friction worldwide, as well as fiscal expansion (the Duterte investment program).
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I know most are getting bulled up here, but I’m thinking we go lower into the 12th before rocketing higher in the stock market. Notice the 16 TD tops on the SPX on chart below!GDX and gold look lower into next week and perhaps the week after. Typically, the PM's have been finding bottoms in July and December, so a short term buying opportunity looks forthcoming perhaps into at least August, maybe September.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Why Trade Wars Are Really Good For The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.
In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – In spite of recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 have to extendits corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Brexit Gross Incompetence / Politics / BrExit
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Here’s the lowdown: the EU’s single market mechanism dictates freedom of movement for labor, capital, services and goods. These are not divisible; you cannot have one without the other. Still, that’s precisely what Theresa May, again, is proposing. She basically wants to keep the UK in the single market for goods, and make other arrangements for the rest. The EU will not accept that because it could have 27 other countries coming with their own versions of single market à la carte.
Sunday, July 08, 2018
Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line is one of the best breadth indicators for the U.S. stock market. It adds the number of stocks that went up each day and subtracts the number of stocks that went down each day.
This is a long term leading indicator for the stock market.
The Advance-Decline cumulative line just made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t. The Advance-Decline cumulative line hasn’t allowed the S&P’s pullbacks to push it down.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Gold Price Selling Exhausting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been afflicted by relentless selling over the past few weeks or so, forcing it to major lows. While summer-doldrums weakness is typical, gold’s recent drop is on the large side even for this time of year. It was fueled by truly-extreme short selling by gold-futures speculators, which is quickly exhausting. That is paving the way for gold’s major autumn rally to start marching higher any day now, a very-bullish omen.
A month ago when gold was still near $1300, I published my latest research on its summer doldrums. The first halves of market summers including Junes and early Julies have long tended to be the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold. They are simply devoid of the recurring seasonal demand surges gold enjoys during most of the rest of the year. With investors not interested in buying, gold languishes.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Trump’s Trade Wars Could Spark Global Flight to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies are upending decades of global arrangements and entanglements. Globalists are aghast that the leader of the free world is openly confrontational toward NAFTA, NATO, the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization.
In rebuffing the global community by pursuing unilateral tariffs and vowing to win trade wars against both rivals and putative allies alike, Trump is playing a high stakes game. Trump’s trade wars could test the U.S. dollar’s status as world reserve currency.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
The Euro, the British Pound and the Other Side of the Coin / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Analyzing the medium-term charts of the euro and the British pound, we see that currency bulls fought fiercely with their rivals during recent weeks. Despite several attempts to push both currencies lower, they successfully defended their main strongholds in both cases and defeated fans of the greenback. What does this mean for the U.S. currency and its European competitors?