Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Gold Strongly Bullish Going into 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Boy, you take a few days off and all hell breaks loose. Gold seems ready for new highs and the US $ for new lows. Let's take a quick look.
U.S. Dollar Index
No fundamental stuff here, just the facts. Let's take a little tour as to where the $ has been and see if there is any indication of it coming to a halt anytime soon.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Gold and Silver Super Breakout into 2008! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“The move from a triangle e should be a powerful thrust that breaks out of the triangle. Though Friday's action began strongly, it stalled in the afternoon leaving the wxy alternate still valid. We'll know very soon which count is invalidated … it will take an impulsive thrust above $823 next week in the front month futures contract to rule out the triangle fake out. Silver also had a strong week, moving back above $14, but failed to win back all of last week's losses. Friday's rally failed to take out the previous day's high and closed back below the 50-day sma.” ~ Precious Points: Bull Trap in Gold? December 22, 2007 Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Challenges Facing Ethanol During 2008 / Commodities / Ethanol
By: David_Urban
Ethanol has been beaten down in the press lately as firms that rushed into the market are faced with high raw material prices and low market acceptance. Early on in the boom farmers who invested in ethanol plants reaped enough profits to pay off their investments in just a few years. As speculators saw the profit potential; they rushed in hoping for massive gains and created an inflationary spiral in the corn market. Corn prices more than doubled; causing riots in Mexico where corn is a basic foodstuff and creating a situation where farmers stopped producing other crops and switched to corn. In the last year, cotton has lost 30% of its acreage as farmers switched from cotton to corn.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Base Metals 2008 Trend Determined by LME Stock Piles - Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Lead and Aluminum / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Zeal_LLC
From their lows in the early 2000s, base metals prices have soared to achieve highs in the last couple years that many would have thought unheard of. Traders that were long in both the futures and the stocks of the mining companies that bring these metals to market have seen legendary gains.
This rapid appreciation of base metals prices has been undergirded by rock-solid fundamentals. Asia 's modernization and industrialization is commanding massive commodities inflows. And to support its insatiable appetite for base metals in particular, an economic imbalance has crept into these markets that has simply caught the world off guard. These industrial metals that go into the infrastructural and mechanical web of global growth have seen supply greatly lag fast-rising demand.
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Friday, December 28, 2007
Continuation of Commodities Bull Markets During 2008 - Stocks to rise on Inflation / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Brian_Bloom
A New Ballgame - Summary and Conclusions
Almost unanimously, the indicator charts are signalling the imminent emergence of a new ballgame. Commodities in general, and oil and gold in particular have already broken up, whilst the Industrial Equity Indices and the US Dollar are showing nail biting indecision.
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Thursday, December 27, 2007
Gold 2008 - Increasing Appeal as Inflation Hedge / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: David_Vaughn
Gold continues to do best what gold does…keep people in suspense.
Up and down and even sideways it seems so goes the price. But it is really not the price that is important. It is the message it portrays that is the most important. Gold is a pillar in financial society. I thought I would include a graph the last trading day before Christmas. I am bringing it to attention because so many disappointingly try to predict the direction of the gold price.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Crude Oil Forecast 2008 to Hit $150 a Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: In 2008, we're going to hit an important milestone. In the New Year the world is going to start using oil at a rate of more than 1,000 barrels PER SECOND!
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will average 87.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, up from 85.7 million bpd in 2007. At 87.8 million bpd, we'll use 1,016 barrels per second — a sonic boom of energy use.
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Thursday, December 27, 2007
Gold Forecast 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_J_Kosares
In a December 2004 interview with the Wall Street Journal, I predicted $525 for gold's high in 2005. It hit that $525 level the following December. For 2006, once again in a Wall Street Journal interview, I predicted a "breakout year" for gold with a top price of $760. Its actual breakout high came earlier in the year than I had anticipated (in May) and a bit lower than I had predicted -- in the $730 range (intraday Comex). In January, 2007, when gold was trading in the $625 range, in a forecast published in a NewsGroup Market Update through our USAGOLD website, I made $715 my minimum upside target and suggested that gold could hit the $800 level, or go as high as $875 if tensions escalated in the Persian Gulf; or if the quid pro quo with China broke down; or if the new Congress proved as anti-market as advertised; or if we got some surprises. Gold hit $840 in November and is trading at the $810 level as this is written. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
The Best and Worst Commodity Performers of 2007 and Outlook for 2008 / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: George_Kleinman
The S&P 500 began 2007 at 1,428. On Friday, Dec. 21, it closed at 1,498 for a respectable, if unexciting, 4.9 percent return for the year.
Were there better places to be over this past year? You bet.
When trading futures, we use leverage. In many cases, all that's required is a 5 percent margin deposit of a contract's value. Under this scenario, just a 5 percent raw price move results in a 100 percent return on the initial margin deposit.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Contracting Credit Cycle and Monetary Debasement During 2008 Equals Commodities Super Cycle / Commodities / Money Supply
By: Captain_Hook
The Need For Speed – Part Deux : The credit crunch continues to worsen , where very soon attempting to paper over all problems with more derivatives and bailouts will no longer work, and authorities will be compelled to increase currency (just another derivative) debasement rates to higher thresholds around the world. Correspondingly then, and as was the case in the early to mid-80's to stimulate the US economy, expect Money At Zero Maturity (MZM) growth rates to top 40-percent in coming days as authorities are forced to monetize increasing bank failures and facilitate ‘price stability'. The technical underpinnings associated with this condition can be viewed here in Figure 6 , where if history is a good guide, year-over-year growth should continue to accelerate higher in coming days. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Agricultural Foods and Commodities 2008 Investment Opportunities / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
With the demise of 2007, investors are looking to a new year and new opportunities. Some investors continue to hope collapse of housing and financial sectors will suddenly be reversed. Market strategists have called how many bottoms in housing sector? Which U.S. financial giant will be next to sell out to a foreign investor? Bubbles, or market sectors, do not reinflate, or reemerge. As shrewd investors move on to next stock market leadership, Agri-Food sector will be an obvious play. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 24, 2007
Uranium Stocks - This is Still a Gamblers Market / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
It's been a great week for some uranium stocks and still a bummer for others. The Merv's Weekly Uranium Index closed the week at 9398.03, up 582.27 points or 6.60%. Of the 50 component stocks, 29 were winners while 20 were losers. There was one stock unchanged on the week. As for the five largest stocks, they were mixed. Cameco gained 7.4%, Denison gained 0.5%, Paladin lost 5.2%, UEX lost 7.7% and Uranium One gained 4.3%. The best weekly performer was Alberta Star with a gain of 84.0% while the worst performer was Triex Minerals with a loss of 14.3%.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Agriculture Prices Continue Upward Trajectory, Present Investment Opportunities / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Joseph_Dancy
Prices remain elevated and the long term global price and demand trends remain upward for agricultural products. We continue to find the global trends in supply and demand compelling for firms in this sector.
Recent developments include:
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Sunday, December 23, 2007
US Congress Passes Energy Bill That Boosts Ethanol Commitment / Commodities / Ethanol
By: Roger_Conrad
Is it a giant leap forward toward America's energy independence or a grab bag for corporations and campaign contributions? Did Congress and the president cave in to big business, or did it stick big government's nose in yet again where it can only do harm? In the final analysis, the energy bill passed this week in Washington probably comes down somewhere in between. Like every other government bill, it was more the result of compromise and negotiation than hard science. The solution reflects the balance of power more than a debate on the merits to society.
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Saturday, December 22, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Bull Trap in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
“If the triangle is going to prove correct, the question becomes whether the e wave low is in place or is another small low to come. Either scenario would be bullish for gold as it would make imminent the start of a 5th wave move to new highs, which a move back above the 5-week sma at $800 would tend to confirm. An alternate that keeps the recent selling corrective … looks for a lower low in the $750-775 range. The question from a fundamental standpoint will be whether the forces causing this consolidation in metals will persist enough to take gold to it's lower target, or strengthen enough to take the bullish shine off silver and metals altogether.” ~Precious Points: More Tough Love from Bernanke and Co. December 15, 2007 Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Gold Gaps UP, Targeting Trend to $850 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The streetTracks GOLD ETF (NYSE: GLD) gapped up this morning and has pushed up through its Nov-Dec resistance line at 80.00, which if sustained should trigger upside acceleration from the bullish triangle pattern that has developed during the past 7 weeks, and which projects an optimal target zone of 85.00-86.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Gold Stock Sentiment Paradox - HUI/Gold Ratio Trends / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
If you are a gold-stock investor, the dark cold days surrounding the winter solstice seem exceptionally fitting this year. As the warm sunlight has largely fled the northern hemisphere, so has bullish sentiment largely fled the gold stocks. Thankfully as inevitably as sun returning to the north, gold-stock sentiment too will thaw.
Today's terrible gold-stock sentiment is really something of a paradox. The gold price is the primary long-term driver of gold miners' profits and hence their stock prices. And gold is really looking good these days. After powering over $800 nominal for the first time in a quarter century in early November, gold has since casually meandered near $800 like it was born to trade here.
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Friday, December 21, 2007
Gold Whats Driving it Higher? and Forecast for 2008 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
As we approach the end of 2007 and a time when gold looks poised to move through its record high, and a time when global financial volatility and uncertainty have never been higher, it is time to look at what's driving the gold market now and what lies ahead in 2008.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Gold Remains in Tight Trading Range over Christmas Holidays / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Gold_Investments
Gold was down $2.60 to $798.50 per ounce in New York yesterday but silver was up 14 cents to $14.21 per ounce. Gold traded sideways in Asia and ticked up in Europe and the London AM Fix was at $803 (up from $799.50). At the London AM Fix gold was trading at a new all time record in British pounds at £404.68 GBP (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at £401.62). Gold went up to €558.88 EUR (up from yesterday's London AM Fix at €557.30 ). Gold has again increased in sterling and in euros. Gold thus surpassed it's all time record high in british pounds with news of the horrendous current account deficit and deteriorating UK economy (see below). Gold will likely reach it's non inflation adjusted highs in euros and dollars early in the New Year.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 21, 2007
Uranium Stocks Short-term Trend Improves / Commodities / Uranium
By: Merv_Burak
Well, that's two days in a row. Maybe we have the start of a rally. The Merv's Daily Uranium Index closed up for another day, up 0.106 points or 2.69%. There were a few more winners and a few less losers as requested yesterday. 34 stocks ended the day on the up side while 13 stocks ended the day on the down side. 3 stocks didn't go either way. Unfortunately, we had a mixed day for the five largest stocks. Cameco closed higher by 4.6%, Denison closed higher by 1.2%, Paladin closed lower by 0.4%, UEX closed lower by 0.6% and Uranium One closed higher by 1.2%.Read full article... Read full article...