Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 16, 2024
Is Stocks Rally Showing Signs of Exhaustion? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks further accelerated their uptrend yesterday, with the S&P 500 index closing 1.61% and reaching new local highs above the 5,500 level. The market has retraced almost all of its declines from the August 1 local high of 5,566.16. The rebound surprised a majority of traders and the question is: Will the market go straight to new highs, or will it reverse at some point and retrace the rally? For now, there have been no confirmed negative signals; however, this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 0.6% lower, as indicated by futures contracts.
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Thursday, August 15, 2024
We got the Stock Market Selloff — Now what? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Submissions
Editor’s note: Today, RiskHedge Executive Editor Chris Reilly sits down with Stephen McBride to discuss the recent market selloff and what investors should expect leading up to the US presidential election...
***
Chris Reilly: Stephen, we got the selloff you’ve been anticipating.
Here’s your warning from June:
Markets aren’t usually this easy or consistent. And remember, in an average year, the S&P 500 suffers a decline of 14%. My guess is we’ll get a correction in that ballpark sometime before November’s election.
Thursday, August 15, 2024
BRICS, Inflation, Turmoil, and CDBC – What to DO? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Andy_Sutton
Our column last week prompted so many questions from new readers that we decided to start from scratch. Long-time readers will recognize much of what we’re about to say, but we ask that you take the time regardless since we’re adding in valuable context that has been provided over time. Just looking at the world today, your first thought might be: crazy! However, compared with even a few years ago, things are much clearer. So, without further ado…
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Tuesday, August 13, 2024
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply Vs House Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This graph shows the US stock market total market cap divided by M2 money supply as a measure of relative valuations which shows stocks in October 2022 were just as cheap as they were during the depths of the 2000 pandemic crash, remember October 2022? When most feared much lower prices and thus failed to buy when stocks were cheap, as is usually the case at every market bottom!
Also whilst stocks are nowhere at the bubble territory of the dot com bubble they are definitely not cheap hence why I am currently approx 70% invested in stocks after taking off the 10% invested in cyclical crypto's that I will probably completely disinvest from over the next 12 months.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Mainstream Financial Media Narratives vs Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So much for the "Sell in May and go Away" narrative that gets peddled out each year. Near term the S&P has basically traded sideways for the past 3 weeks nevertheless the stock market has delivered opportunities galore to both trim and accumulate in key target stocks such as buying the dips in ADSK, DIOD, and GPN and selling the rips in TSM, Qualcom and WDC, whilst seeking to capitalise on opportunities presented by the plunge in cloud computing stocks such as CRM, VEEV, Adobe, and SNOW of which SNOW is the bigger gamble of the bunch.
Current state of the stock market is that the S&P put in a new all time high of 5373, which is what tends to happen during a bull market as I often state that the risk is to the upside.
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Monday, August 12, 2024
Stock Market Rollercoaster: Analyzing the Recent Meltdown and Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The financial landscape experienced a seismic shift last week, reminiscent of hitting rumble strips on the interstate—jerking investors awake to the underlying economic dangers.
Monday’s drastic stock market selloff, triggered by various catalysts, left investors reeling, though the panic seemed to abate by week's end. But is everything truly back to normal, or was this a premonition of more significant issues to come?
Monday, August 12, 2024
Stocks Rebounded: What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday's trading session was mixed; stock prices bounced, but they closed well below the daily highs. The S&P 500 reached a local high of 5,312.34 but closed more than 70 points below that level, gaining 'just' 1.04%. Overnight, calming words from the Bank of Japan were released, and this morning, the S&P 500 is likely to open 1.0% higher in another attempt to retrace more of its recent sell-off.
Before the current turmoil, investor sentiment had slightly improved last week, as indicated by the last Wednesday's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 44.9% of individual investors are bullish, while only 25.2% of them are bearish – down from 31.7% last week.
Saturday, August 10, 2024
AI Will Turn Everyone Into Gamblers! The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History is Coming.. Part 1/2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Have you managed to capitalise on the stock market correction as many patrons have in key target AI tech stocks?
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Plunging Stocks, Gold Miners, and Lucrative Implications / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The stock markets around the world are sliding, and so does bitcoin – just as I warned.
Miners invalidated their tiny breakout, closed below the July low on Friday, and they are poised to slide even more.
That’s just the beginning.
Let’s start with a quote from my Friday’s Gold Trading Alert:
Stocks might have had their “oops” moment this week. (…)
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Reasons For A CRASH / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recently, we have seen a 10% drop in the S&P500. And, there is no shortage of reasons that the financial media pundits have ascribed to that decline. While many point to the bad jobs data, we have to at least be honest in recognizing that the market began this decline well before those poor jobs numbers were announced. So, we can easily dismiss that superficial reason.
But, the most common reason for the market decline to which the pundits point was the unwinding of the yen carry trade. In fact, I counted at least 3 articles on Seeking Alpha alone with that reason in their title, with at least another 5 or 6 proffering that reason within the heart of their articles.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Financial Markets Attempting To Find Its Footing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
USD dollar index futures are higher (+0.24%) this morning, and bond yields are also higher.
Gold (+0.49%) and silver (+0.08%) are rallying a tad, while copper and oil are flat.
Stock futures are rallying, with risk barometer Bitcoin up 1.39%.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The big US stocks dominating markets and investors’ portfolios just reported a truly-spectacular quarter. Their collective revenues neared record levels, driving their highest earnings ever witnessed. Yet despite all that, risks abound. The US stock markets have never been more concentrated, relying on fewer and fewer companies. Valuations remain deep into dangerous bubble territory, and market fragility signs are mounting.
The flagship US S&P 500 stock index has enjoyed a banner 2024, blasting up 18.8% year-to-date in mid-July! Traders’ fascination with mega-cap techs involved in artificial intelligence fueled fully 38 new record-high closes this year, over 1/4th of all trading days. The resulting greed and euphoria have left the SPX chronically- and extremely-overbought, mostly stretching far above its baseline 200-day moving average.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
U.S. Trilogy: debt-based dollar and economy, stablecoin digital currency, BRICS new world. / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Debt-based dollar and economy
Over a century ago the United States Congress approved a deceitfully promoted Federal Reserve Central Bank, which then established a new debt-based monetary system. Its concept of creating and introducing ever more currency into a country which had little debt, initially worked well to create economic stimulus at the time, and currency available to participate in WWI and WWII. That stimulus also bought forth the wild market speculation of the 1920s, the necessary precursor for tightening of credit and the Great Depression. Outlawing citizen ownership of real money (Constitutionally designated as gold and silver coins) in 1934, it required citizens to turn in their gold coins to banks, which were complicit with government to steal money from citizens as gold was then revalued by from $20.63 to $35.00 an ounce.
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Thursday, July 04, 2024
Stocks Correct into Bitcoin Happy Thanks Halving - Earnings Season Buying Opps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's 4th July 2024 Britains Independance Day from Clown Sunak.
The polls will be opening at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.
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Sunday, June 30, 2024
Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region's Stock Market Indexes / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: EWI
By Mark Galasiewski | Elliott Wave International
The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how tensions between China and the United States could lead to open conflict, specifically over Taiwan.
The likelihood of conflict depends in part on the region's social mood, as reflected in Asia's stock market indexes. When social mood is negative, countries are more likely to behave aggressively.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Can Stock Market Bad Breadth Be Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
In a word, yes. But first, bad market breadth will likely be… bad
A subscriber sent me analysis calling for a “Monster [bullish] reversion trade for the ages” based on the extreme under-performance of the Equal Weight SPX (RSP) to the Headline SPX. The writer’s conclusion is that after such an extreme divergence the spring back in RSP vs. SPY/SPX is strong and the broader market is the place to be for out-performance.
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Sunday, June 16, 2024
Investors Are Forever Blowing Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Blowing soap bubbles is child’s (investor’s?) play, but surprisingly, physicists (economists?) haven’t worked out the details of the phenomenon.” (source)
After all-time closing highs in both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday, investors drove both indexes higher again today following the release of the latest CPI number and the Fed’s decision to leave their target Fed funds rate unchanged for now. The bond market followed suit with bond prices increasing and the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest level in more than two months.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -
a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
Gold Price Consolidating at High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has generally drifted sideways for a couple months now, consolidating high. That lack of progress has significantly eroded sentiment, bleeding off greed and stoking bearishness. But this healthy process is exactly what gold needed to rebalance sentiment. After soaring to extremely-overbought levels in April, greed grew excessive. The high consolidation since is bleeding that off, readying gold for another surge higher.
From mid-February to mid-April, gold blasted a powerful 20.0% higher in a remarkable breakout surge. Fully 19 new nominal record closes were achieved in that short span, which really excited traders! The lion’s share of that upside wasn’t fueled by gold’s usual primary drivers, speculators buying gold futures and American stock investors buying gold-ETF shares. Chinese investors and central banks took the helm.
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Saturday, June 15, 2024
When Will the Boom/ Bust Rollercoaster End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
How can we know for sure the stock market is in a bubble? NVIDIA (NVDA) has been up 155% year to date; its market cap is over $3 trillion. The company has gained the equivalent of Amazon in just six months. And it is responsible for just over half of the S&P 500 gains this year. For comparison, the equal-weight S&P is up just over 4% this year. NVDA has added the equivalent of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) valuation in 6 weeks. BRK is the empire legendary investor Warren Buffet spent his entire lifetime building. NVDA is now worth over 10% of US GDP. That means AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA are now worth more than 1/3rd of our nation's entire economic output. All previous stock market bubbles share the following in common: a narrow stock market rally that focuses on a small group of stocks in a small sector of the economy that Wall Street is working overtime on promoting. AI fits this profile perfectly. I am not disputing that AI is going to be a productivity boom. Nevertheless, NVDA is now in a bubble. The stock is predicated on spurious and ephemeral demand for its chips, which will collapse in the economic downturn ahead.
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