Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 03, 2024
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?
This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 02, 2024
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 02, 2024
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Not satisfied with just seasonal swings I've continued to evolve my near term seasonal swings analysis by comparing the year on year change of the past 5 years which resolves in the following recency bias pattern. Which is very similar to the above monthly seasonal analysis and only really differs to last years analysis in terms of the correction during May and June.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 31, 2024
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a brief rally into late July /. Early August before a deep correction into Mid October, resolving in a sharp reversal to end October higher, which would set the scene for a bull run into the end of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 25, 2024
Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock 2021 market top, since which closely tracked the markets decline into the bear market bottom, flashing relative strength during the bull market, the only false signal was the sell off into late October. Presently is showing divergence to the S&P i.e. suggesting a downtrend is imminent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Stephen_McBride
As I write, it’s currently the 15th anniversary of the 2009 stock market low.In March '09, US stocks were trading at levels not seen since 1996. Investors had suffered more than a lost decade.
Fast-forward to today, and the S&P 500 has surged 650% off those generational lows.
It’s easy to look at the S&P’s 650% rise and scream “bubble!”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
Here are details of "The Great Cash-Out"
Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.
In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 24, 2024
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
The money supply continues to fall, but investors don’t seem to care. They are convinced that their success is connected to a potential Fed shift in interest rate policy. Nothing else seems to matter. That is partially attributable to the fact that, as the financial markets continue their upward trajectory, less and less attention is paid to the deteriorating economy. And, the deterioration is getting worse.
When worsening economic conditions – especially in the labor market – are pointed out, it is either not noticed or ignored. The wealthy and well-connected don’t care; and others don’t know enough to care. If stocks are up, things must be okay.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 09, 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: EWI
"The total easily exceeds the prior net long extreme"
When most everyone agrees on the future trend of a market, it's almost guaranteed that the market will go in the other direction -- sooner rather than later.
The reason why is that there is no one left to convince, hence, the market in question will likely have difficulty going in the predicted direction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 04, 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! you get access to my latest market brief posted to patrons this morning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 01, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The crypto bull market is under way! For just $5 bucks you could have accumulated Bitcoin at $27k instead of at the current price of $62k. Still not to late to captialise on the great crypto bull market of 2024! Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 01, 2024
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield curve now inverted for 21 months so where's the recession? An inverted yield curve is supposed to predict an recession, however as I pointed out months ago for why I was accumulating long-bonds is that the US Treasury NEEDS LOWER long-term interest rates for it's flood of debt issuance during 2024, it does not want to pay 5% interest on this debt that continues to inflate the debt interest spiral. So the Fed will engineer LOWER long term yields whilst maintaining higher short-term rates so as to continue to suppress INFLATION! Which is what has come to pass, long rates are now 1% lower whilst the Fed fund rate remains at 5.25%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 29, 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield / Stock-Markets / Earnings
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the years that spiked lower below 0 into 2022 before bouncing. during 2023. Of note is the fact that every spike below zero is accompanied by a recession. So where's the recession? Answer it HAPPENED during 2022! It's just that the econofools had talked themselves out of recognising the fact that a recession had taken place.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets / Stock-Markets / HyperInflation
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. equities market was strong in 2023, and after a decline in 2022, rose by 20% last year as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In addition, that index rose above 5,000 for the first time ever in the early part of the 2024 year. Surely, it must be because our economy is strong - as key government officials including our president have assured us. Or maybe not?! You can decide for yourself as key issues are evaluatedherein. We will compare our current equity market performance with a period 100 years ago with its implications for our future financial markets. We will look at the concept of self-custody for assets from gold to bank money deposits, to a securities stock and bond account and the custody of digital assets. We examine how America’s proxy war efforts are affecting our budget deficit, and the dire need for additional debt/money issueance promoting product price inflation, and asset inflation. We examine America’s profligate spending challenging a growing BRICS coalition promoting global de-dollarization, and its effects on our fiat currency’s value, alternative currencies and implications for adoption and value of Web 3 digital assets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 19, 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My focus for much of 2023 was to what degree one would get lucky in ones target stocks during the year, as it can be a case of playing with fire to heavily trim ones holdings, especially the primary and secondary AI tech stocks, all because one thinks one can then rebuy on the next dip. In which respect 2023 proved to be a great year because we got lucky TWICE during the year! Firstly March's correction to S&P 3800, can you imagine that the S&P traded down to 3800 in March! And then again following the July high of 4600 all the way down to 4100! Which even I had started to give up on happening given support at 4200.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 17, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CP LIE Inflation has been moderating, largely due to the base effect as surge in inflation a year ago leaves the annual inflation indices thus giving the illusion of inflation being under control hence the focus of econofools. Whilst there is also real world impact of weak European and Chinese economies, that and the effect of base rate rises feeding through should continue to put downward pressure on CPI until at least release of Feb data in March 2024, after which inflation could tick higher to back over 3% for the rest of the year.
Read full article... Read full article...