Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Fed Raises US Interest Rates 25bp – Where Are We In The Stock Market Cycle? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
With the news today from the US Fed and the rate hike, we should all be asking ourselves “where are we in the market cycle” so that we can prepare for and identify proper trades that may set up in our future. One thing is for sure; we are not in the perpetual easing environment of the past 7+ years. The Fed indicated they are expecting at least two more rate increases are expected this year and also hinted that a forth may be possible depending on the economic activity.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Stock Markets Are Flat-to-lower Before the FOMC / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are trading within a 10.5 point range around the flat line this morning. As I write it remains under mid-Cycle resistance at 2718.90 which proved to be resistance yesterday, as well. Note that the chart contains a double death cross as both Short-term and mid-Cycle resistances are beneath the 52-day Moving Average.
ZeroHedge reports, “Global shares traded in the red, and the dollar slumped before a hike in US interest rates, while awaiting key guidance on how many more to expect for this year. S&P futures were little changed, while markets in Europe and Asia dropped; Japan’s Nikkei was closed for holiday.”
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Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Will Powell’s Actions Pop Stock Market Perfection / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
March 21st will be the first FOMC release under Chairman Powell. 3-month Treasury yields have risen 80-basis points since October 1st when the Fed started reducing its balance sheet for the first time since QE 1 launched in 2009. Chairman Powell has stated future hikes are in store for the rest of 2018. Based on these patterns, we should see the 6th rate hike from the Fed since December 2015 on March 21st. Yet as markets closed on March 20th, US stock indices gave stock investors the view of “still rising, all is calm”.
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Wednesday, March 21, 2018
This Stock Market "Illusion" Can Destroy Once-Vibrant Portfolios / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Virtually all stock market forecasting is based on the fallacy of linear extrapolation
Those who've invested solely in the stock market during the past several years have seen the value of their portfolios increase.
As of June 30, 2017, the average 401(k) balance stood at $97,700, according to Fortune magazine. That was a 9.6% increase from a year earlier. Average IRA balances were even higher at $100,200.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Stocks Appear to be Under Pressure / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has bounced off the 2-year trendline (not shown) yesterday. Overnight futures have only made a half-hearted rally, so we may see SPX remain under the mid-Cycle resistance at 2722.23. The 38.2% retracement level is at 2720.30. Should that be the case, the decline may resume after a brief probe to that level.
ZeroHedge reports, “After yesterday's violent selloff which was sparked by a series of negative tech stories including Facebook’s escalating data scandal and a fatal accident involving an Uber self-driving car, Tuesday trading has so far been relatively calm and muted with Europe bourses paring early gains and Asian stocks trading slightly lower...
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Monday, March 19, 2018
Stocks Set to Open Lower, Should You Buy? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their short-term consolidation on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following Tuesday-Wednesday move down. The broad stock market failed to continue its rebound from February 9 low last week despite technology stocks reaching new record highs. There are still two possible future scenarios. Or maybe three, but the third one is the worst.
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.3% on Friday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors were undecided after recent move down. The S&P 500 index gained 0.2% and it remained at the support level of previous Friday's daily gap up. It currently trades 4.5% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it gained 0.3%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged.
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Monday, March 19, 2018
Do Stocks Bull Market Tops Need Breadth Divergences? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Despite what some bearish investors might say, the U.S. stock market’s breadth is IMPROVING right now. Here’s the NYSE’s Advance-Decline Cumulative Line. It is leading the S&P 500 higher.
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Monday, March 19, 2018
Bonds, Inflation & the Market Amigos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for a good piece of the picture: Silver’s Equal and Opposite Symmetry to 2016 Indicates Future Sustainable Rally. On to the Bonds segment…
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Stock Market Bulls Last Stand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2872 could nowcontinue until May-June.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 18, 2018
Return of Stock Market Volatility Amidst Political Chaos and Uncertain Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
Buildadv writes: For stock market investors, the coming week is likely to see the Federal Reserve move back into focus, stealing the spotlight back, at least briefly, from worries about tariffs and political turmoil. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which will conclude Wednesday and is widely expected to deliver the first rate increase of 2018, will be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s first as chairman of the central bank, and investors will be eager to find out just how much he deviates from the legacy of Janet Yellen, whom he succeeded in early February.
While market participants have fully priced in a quarter-percentage point rate increase on Wednesday, investors will parse the wording of the accompanying statement and Powell’s subsequent news conference. According to Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, the U.S. economy is estimated to have expanded at a 1.8% clip during the first quarter of this year, which is twice the average rate for this period throughout the recovery. But higher rates are still likely to dent some industries that are seen as bond proxies, such as utilities, telecoms or consumer staples. These sectors have already been underperforming and may continue to do so for some time, according to Jaffee. Since the start of the year, telecoms, utilities and consumer staples are down between 4.5%-6.5%.
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Saturday, March 17, 2018
Strong Earnings Growth is Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500’s earnings growth is projected to be very strong in 2018: mid-high teens (i.e. 15-18%). Growth tends to come down as the year goes on, but even then the earnings growth rate will still exceed 10% for this year.
This is the second year in a row in which the S&P 500’s earnings growth exceeded 10%. The S&P’s earnings growth in 2017 was 13.1%.
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Saturday, March 17, 2018
Forget the CPI, Inflation is Here. And the Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The attempts to mask inflation are reaching truly ludicrous proportions.
Bloomberg reports that the “guts of the US CPI show key inflation weakest in years.”
What are the “guts?”
Housing rents… which the CPI claims are falling.
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
Stock Market Downward Pressure Mounting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their short-term losses on Wednesday, as they retraced most of last week's Friday's rally. The broad stock market failed to continue its rebound from February 9 low despite technology stocks reaching new record highs. Investors' sentiment worsened again following economic news, trade war fears. There are still two possible future scenarios. Or maybe three, but the third one is the worst.
The main U.S. stock market indexes extended their Tuesday's losses, as they closed 0.2-1.0% lower yesterday. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% following Tuesday's bounce off resistance level at 2,800. However, it remained at the support level of last Friday's daily gap up. It currently trades 4.6% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker than the broad stock market, as it lost 1.0% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost just 0.2%.
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
The Stock Market Trend is Your Friend ’til the Very End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
If you’ve been following me for any length of time you know I’ve been a major bull when it comes to the stock markets. The last two years were some of the best years to be a bull in one of the greatest bull markets of all time and I don’t say that lightly.
A little over a month ago we got our first correction of 12% in over two years on the SPX. Everyday the SPX would be up four or five points on the open, nothing major, and then move slowly higher in a non threatening way which made it fairly easy to stay on trend. Impulse moves like that are the easiest part to trade as the corrections, when they came, were very small of only 3% to 5%.
That all changed a little over a month ago when it was time for the stock markets to correct that two year impulse leg up. When it’s time to correct the markets don’t need an excuse they just do it and it usually comes out of nowhere. The initial leg down is usually the hardest followed by counter trend moves that eventually build out some type of pattern.
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
Eye Opening Stock Market Index, Volatility, Charts and Predictions / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Volatility setting up like 2014/2015, Get ready for some interesting range rotation and price swings.
Our recent research shows that the current US markets are setting up for what could become a very interesting price range rotation as well as increased volatility. Our team of researchers at Technical Traders Ltd. have identified a number of key elements that appear to be in place similar to 2014/2015 where the market setup an initial deep price rotation, followed by a deeper price rotation only to end with an advanced price rally on the news that the US Fed would continue buying US debt.
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
Stock Market March Madness / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Denali_Guide
Who will survive the cuts, the semi's, the finals ? So where to begin?
So will the DOW top 26.6 K in any reasonable time frame, say before August?
Or in the other sectors, will we see copper, energy, cannabis, lithium, cobalt, graphite or energy give us a run? I'd have to say this is rather suspicious, averages running up but NOT topping their All Time Highs.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Will the Stock Market Make Another Correction this Year? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P made an 11.8% “small correction” from January – February 2018.
When the stock market begins and finishes a “small correction” in the first quarter (January-March) of a year, it ALWAYS makes another correction that year. Hence, we can expect that there will probably be another 6%+ “small correction” sometime later this year. The U.S. stock market will be much choppier in 2018 than in 2017. This is not a “goldilocks” year.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Stock Market Direction Is No Longer Important / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Raymond_Matison
In February of 2018 the financial dam welling up all asset prices sprang a leak, demonstrating to newer investors that markets can actually go down – a lot, and fast. However, the FED’s derivative finger was quickly applied to plug up the hole, and financial waters again started to rise toward their previous level. With a current change in Federal Reserve’s leadership and direction, we are likely to experience increased market volatility with attendant significant and frequent fluctuations in asset values.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Stock Market Crash is Underway and Cannot be Stopped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Enda_Glynn
There was an intriguing headline on Bloomberg today,
Here it is;
Investors Hate Leverage Like It’s 2009, According to This Metric.
Heres the main chart of the blomberg pure leverage portfolio.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: GoldCore
– Recent stock market selloff showed gold can deliver returns and reduce portfolio risk
– Gold’s performance during stock market selloff was consistent with historical behaviour
– Gold up nearly 10% in last year but performance during recent selloff was short-lived
– The stronger the market pullback, the stronger gold’s rally
– WGC: ‘a good time for investors to consider including or adding gold as a strategic component to their portfolios.’
– Gold remains one of the best assets outperforming treasuries and corporate bonds