Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Next Great War and the 24-Year Stock Market Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

The threat of war against the United States is making headlines and roiling investors' nerves. While full-scale war is likely not imminent, it's something worth considering in light of where we stand in the long-term War Cycle.

North Korea has stolen the geopolitical spotlight in recent weeks after making military threats against both the U.S. and South Korea. North Korea is the target of UN sanctions in response to a nuclear weapons test performed by the country in February. In reference to the test a spokesman for North Korea's Foreign Ministry declared the nation has a right to initiate "a preemptive nuclear attack to destroy the strongholds of the aggressors."

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Stock Market Enters Flash Crash Territory / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX just declined through Intermediate-term support this morning, raising the probability of a Flash Crash to 50% or more, IMO. The chances rise to 90% when SPX falls through its 50-day moving average at 1541.42 and the lower trendline of its Broadening Top at 1535.00.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Hindenberg Omen For Gold, Death Bell For Overpriced Assets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Omen, largely based on Norman G. Fosback's High Low Logic Index is rarely applied by analysts to commodities, but applying the Omen's method to equities, bonds and other assets can identify probable future violent downward price movement affecting all markets. Basically, the method sets out to identify if markets are undergoing a period of extreme divergence — many assets at new highs and many at new lows. When this happens, pricing is evidently haywire or "stochastic-oriented", and this divergence is very rarely conducive to future rising prices. Conversely, a healthy market needs a semblance of internal coherence and uniformity whether the uniformity is down tilted, toward declining prices, or the opposite.

Monday, April 15, 2013

This is a Great Ponzi Scheme - Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Videos

Sometimes I am shocked at what leaks out over the mainstream media. Two days ago, former White House Budget Director in the Reagan Administration, David Stockman, dropped some financial bombs in an interview on FOX. He said the Social Security Trust Fund was “filled with confetti.” This was not included in the cut I posted. What is included in the clip is Stockman saying if the Fed was “gone fishing” for six weeks (meaning it would stop the $85 billion a month ”open-ended” money printing), “there would be calamity in the markets.” I think if the Fed stopped its $85 billion a month money printing, there WOULD be “calamity in the markets” in six minutes.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Stock Market Fractured Extension - Getting Close to Intermediate Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.

Intermediate trend - The uptrend from 1343 appears to be topping. Russell lagging.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Stock Market FTSE 100 Sending Red Warning Flag Signals / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market

By: Michael_Noonan

One of the best aspects of reading developing market activity is that it reduces any market to the opposing forces of supply and demand. It can be any organized market, anywhere. The factors of fear and greed universally apply to all investors/traders.

Reading developing market activity, in context with past price behavior, is a short- hand way to follow what smart money is doing. Smart money represents the controlling influences behind price movement. We recently did an analysis on the German DAX, [Different Country, Different Culture. People Are People, Charts Are Charts, http://bit.ly/ZDvxeg]. What held true for that analysis equally holds true for the FTSE 100.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Stock Market Uptrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Tony_Caldaro

The five month Intermediate iii of Major 3 of Primary III uptrend continued its relentless ways this week, carrying the SPX to all time new highs. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.95%. Asian markets gained 1.1%, European markets soared 4.3%, and the DJ World index gained 2.5%. Economic reports, however, were mostly to the downside for the first time in many weeks. On the uptick: business inventories, the M1 multiplier, plus both weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, retail sales, the PPI, consumer sentiment and the WLEI declined. Next week we get a look at Industrial production, Housing, the NY/Philly FED, the CPI and the FED’s Beige book.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Stock Market Little Selling.... Commodities Crushed.....Again.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jack_Steiman

If you want to try to understand on a deeper level what it means to have a disconnect just look at the behavior of the commodity stocks. If the world was really in good shape, and we had real growth everywhere, then these stocks would be on fire to the upside. They are acting as if there's major deflation going on. And in the real world we do have deflation. Mr. Bernanke's liquidity supply is keeping the market up, but that's not the real world folks. It's so hard to wrap your head around the bigger-picture market action when you consider that things really are in bad shape globally, especially throughout Europe. We have had a plethora of terrible reports over the past two weeks. Again, let's go over all of them.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Surmounting Mainstream Financial Media Spin, Distortion & Censorship / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: DeepCaster_LLC

“Since the Financial Crisis erupted in 2007, the US Federal Reserve has engaged in dozens of interventions/ bailouts to try and prop up the financial system. Now, I realize that everyone knows the Fed is “printing money.” However, when you look at the list of bailouts/ money pumps it’s absolutely staggering how much money the Fed has thrown around….

“The Fed is not the only one. Collectively, the world’s Central Banks have pumped over $10 trillion into the financial system since 2007. This money printing has resulted in a massive expansion of Central Bank balance sheets ….

“This money printing has unleashed inflation in the financial system. In the emerging markets, where consumers can spend as much as 50% of their income, this has resulted in food riots and even revolutions as we saw with the Arab Spring in 2011.”

Friday, April 12, 2013

How to Protect Yourself From the Biggest Threat to Your Wealth / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Casey_Research

Doug Casey on Internationalizing Your Assets : In a wide-ranging interview with Casey Research editor Louis James, Doug Casey discusses why it's imperative to start diversifying one's assets today, and provides some guidance in considering countries to diversify into.

L: Doug, we're getting a lot of questions from readers on how to follow your advice to diversify assets politically. I know it's a prickly subject, but what can you tell us about getting our money out from behind the new iron curtain that seems to be descending?

Friday, April 12, 2013

U.S. Dollar to Become Next Japanese Yen? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Gold prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange have jumped 7.8% since April 4, when the central bank of Japan announced its new and aggressive round of asset purchases. (Source: Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2013.)

The Bank of Japan has become notorious for printing extreme amounts of paper money. It wants to end the economic misery the country has faced for many years.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Russia: A Dirt-Cheap Investor Profit Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Russia

By: Investment_U

Carl Delfeld writes: Russia is one big country.

With 6.6 million square miles inside its borders, it is the world’s largest sovereign landmass. Giant companies such as Lukoil dominate the Russian economic landscape. The big bosses in Moscow control these behemoths.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Stock Market Getting Deep Into Euphoria Phase, Looking for the Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Toby_Connor

We are now at the point in the bull market where traders think that stocks are bullet proof. Back in December I warned this was coming. I said at the time that this round of QE was going to be different. That it would have a much bigger effect on the market than the analysts were expecting. I remember at the time analysts were claiming each round of QE was having less and less effect.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Why Bank Bail in and Bail out Wont Work. Case study Iceland and Greece / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

As most of us can remember that Iceland was the first country that went down during the last Global Financial Crisis in 2008. During that time Iceland had done something remarkable and that is during the five years prior to the crisis, managed to transform its economy from a fishing industry to a mega hedge fund country. Many of its citizens left their traditional trade which is fishing to become fund managers and salesman. As a result Iceland’s banking assets (physical assets + Loans + Reserves + Investment securities) grown to more than 10x its GDP of $14 billion.  With such high leverage, when the financial crisis struck it is unable to defend its economy and hence its house of cards collapsed.

The purpose of this article is a post-event analysis of the performance of the Icelandic economy that refuses a bailout as compared to Greece which went for a bailout with the injection of funds from Troika. To simplify matters, we shall coin the bail-in and bail-out as (BIBO) for short. Of course in the short term it helped stabilized the Greek economy for a while but we want to know to what extent it had transformed the Greek economy in the long run with the accompanying terms and conditions and austerity measures. In this article we shall compare the performance of both the economies of Iceland and Greece with the economic indicators or metrics below from the year 2002 to the present. We believed we have been fed with too much toxics by the mainstream medias which are also own by them that capitalized on the age old investment axiom of good-to-good.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Stock Market SPX Final Thrust Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Several EW analysts have taken a stab at labeling the wave structure on the SPX. Every one has completely missed the Broadening Top structure. As a result, they are mis-labeling the waves, IMO. Broadening Tops are known to be completely populated with corrective, a-b-c waves. That is still so, especially in the final thrust, which I have labeled.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

German DAX – Different Country, Different Culture. People Are People / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets

By: Michael_Noonan

The one common denominator that crosses all cultures, even religions, is money. It is the global equalizer. We take a look at the DAX, Germany’s stock market. Do the “precise” Germans fare any better at investing than at, say, building cars?. Likely not. Money goes to the core of the human psyche as the fundamental driver for tapping into the fear/greed element from which few escape, at least when it comes to investing.

Unfortunately, DAX does not have volume, a vital element that shows the ebb and flow of two incredibly important principles, supply and demand. Why it volume so important? It shows the effect from the cause factor of investors/traders making buy/sell decisions.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Taking Economic and Market Statistics and Data Distortion at Face Value / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: John_Mauldin

Last Friday I was in Sonoma, California, for Mike Shedlock’s investment conference. The weather was grey and gloomy, but the conversation was animated and bright. I was fully engaged the whole day and never more than when John Hussman was speaking, commenting, or asking tough questions. John and I have talked on the phone and corresponded for years but had never met. What a consummate gentleman and scholar. We felt like we had been old friends for years and committed to finding opportunities in the future to get together and compare notes in person.

John is no stranger to long-time readers of Outside the Box, as he has probably been the source of more OTBs than any other writer. John and I share a common foe that focuses our attention: a weekly deadline that we sometimes battle long into the night. This week John shares with us some of the insights he presented in Sonoma. One quick quote that I bet will spark your interest:

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Stock Market Long Cycle- Part II / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Ed_Carlson

In last week's Commentary I showed how Lindsay's long cycle divided the historical chart of the Dow into what we normally refer to as secular bull and bear markets and noted how closely related each cycle was in its time duration. I also pointed out how the cycle lows Lindsay identified were somewhat different than what other analysts use but that he did so using very specific, rules-based methods to identify those cycle lows rather than just "eye-balling" a chart. These rules are explained in the book An Aid to Timing. Using this approach enables us to forecast the low of the current secular bear market (2023).

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Euro and Gold Topping, Japan Not in Control of its Destiny / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that XEU has finally completed its Intermediate Wave [2] and is ready for a strong Wave [3]. XEU has both a Broadening Top and a Head & Shoulders pattern to help Wave [3] along.

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Stock Market Head and Shoulders Pattern Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX extended a bit more than I had anticipated, but my “irregular correction” label stuck.

SPX now has a small Head & Shoulders formation with a Minimum target of 1505.34. That may just be a start, IMO. The February low was 1485.01 and the SPX may be more apt to match that low. This may set up a new Head & Shoulders patterm with a target of 1390 or lower.