Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, April 24, 2010
Another Bubble in Stocks and Housing? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Compare the U.S. Census Report… “New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $2.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $176.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed three consecutive monthly increases, including a 1.1 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2 percent.”
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Saturday, April 24, 2010
Stock Market Late Day Rally Again... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is common in bull markets, especially when the market won't sell off when everyone is expecting it to. We are overbought. We do have some negative divergences on the daily chart and we do have eroding sentiment figures. This equates to pullback. However, when a market can't sell when it supposedly should, the bears start to cover and the bull get braver and thus later day action becomes one in which markets move upward. Sort of the give up affect. It's a bull market. It won't sell on a given day thus the masses move towards the direction of the trend and simply buy equities. Today we had weaker futures to deal with due to poor earnings from Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) and Amazon.com (AMZN).
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Saturday, April 24, 2010
Gold, HUI and Stocks On the Brink of an Asset Explosion II / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Let me start off by saying the market should be correcting. Sentiment has reached ridiculous bullish extremes, the kind of extremes that led to the January /February correction.That correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third. But let’s face it, sentiment has been in this condition for several weeks now and the best we could muster was a minor correction of 30 points on the news the SEC was filing charges against Goldman Sachs for fraud.
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Saturday, April 24, 2010
Goldman who? Fuhgeddaboudit! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Greece what? Oh we fixed that thing last week! Yeah, the Germans (who are $4.5Tn in debt), the French (who are $4.4Tn in debt), the English ($9.2Tn) and, of course, the Italians ($4Tn in debt) are gonna give the Greeks a little something to keep the lights on until Christmas. Hey the world’s supposed to end in 2012 anyway so it’s not like we gotta keep worrying about this stuff, capiche? See Merkel tells me she knows a guy who knows a guy who’s got the green to keep this whole scam going until then and, after that--who cares? It’s gonna be somebody else’s problem…
Friday, April 23, 2010
Mendacity Antidotes for Investor Profit and Protection / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2010
“The European Central Bank used the proceeds from gold sales to boost its U.S. dollar reserves in 2009, helping lift the dollar…
The ECB also confirmed it had not intervened in currency markets in 2009. The last time it intervened was in 2000.”
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Why Are U.S. Stocks and The U.S. Dollar Rising? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Is the US dollar fundamentally flawed? We think so.
Is the US economy fundamentally in trouble? We think so.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Stocks Secular Bear Market Rally, Trees Meet the Forest / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Many people like to look at Japan as instructive relative to the current situation facing the United States (and most of Europe). The current strong up move in stocks has been relentless. It has been no fun and of no use lately to eruditely point out how bad the underlying economy is and how bad the housing market and banking system is. There is little point of understanding the economy as an investor if you cannot make money using the information. Being a general stock market bear has been an incorrect and painful position since the March 2009 lows in many global stock markets.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Stock Market Trading Lessons From the 1998 Russian Debt Default / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I remember the 1998 Russian debt default crisis and the associated Long Term Capital Management collapse very well. I was a novice trader who found the bearish arguments of the time convincing. It was evident, they said, that the market was in a massive bubble based on debt and loose money and that it couldn't go on much longer before the whole thing blew up. All that was needed was the right catalyst. Not knowing yet that the trend is your friend, I lost money continually trying to short every rally.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Stock Market 20's Hold.....MSFT/AMZN Crushed After Hours..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Last night I talked about the area of critical support on the S&P 500 being the 20-day exponential moving average or 1187. 1185 also being strong horizontal support. We got down to 1190 today on the lows after some very bad earnings reports last night. We basically got to those 20-day exponential moving averages and blasted up once again. This is the sign of a very healthy market overall. Yes, we could use some deeper selling but, yes, this is a very powerful bull market that continues to be under rated in my eyes. This is why we've only had long exposure since being lucky enough to call the bottom. No shorts. We gapped down on those numbers from last night and continued to run lower.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Stock Market Indices Rally After Sharp Opening Down-Gap / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices staged a fantastic late rally in the afternoon, taking back all the morning losses from the sharp gap-down at the opening and downside follow-through early on.
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Friday, April 23, 2010
Greek Debt Crisis Tragedies and Wall Street Worries / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Obama is coming to Wall Street.
The President will laying out his case for legislation at 11:55 to crack down on Wall Street with new regulations. "One of the most significant contributors to this recession was a financial crisis as dire as any we’ve known in generations," Obama will say, according to excerpts from his speech released by the White House.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Trend Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil ETFs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
It’s been, an interesting week as stocks and commodities claw their way back up after the end of week sell off on Friday. Most of the chart technical are pointing to another wave lower for gold, silver, oil and the broad market.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Stocks Bull Market Continues to March Ahead towards Dow 14,000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The upward pulse of the bull trend that commenced in March of 2009 continues to forge ahead with considerable power. Both the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials gave new buy confirmation signals last week. That this happened in the middle of an earnings season is most encouraging. Thus it would appear that the probability of the Industrials hitting the 14,000 level without significant difficulty is high, allowing for the odd pullback.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Retailers Make a Surprising Comeback / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
Jon D. Markman writes: You may be hearing a lot of bearish commentary centering on the premise that the market's advance is unsustainable because it has benefited so much from government spending.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Marc Faber Warnings on China, Industrial Commodities and Australian Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Marc Faber talks about growth in lending and increases in property prices in China. Faber also discusses his caution about buying industrial commodities and Australian stocks. He speaks with Bloomberg's Liza Lin in Singapore.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
MortiES’ EOD Analysis 21April2010 ~ Timid Bulls Pocketing Some Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
A little about myself. My name is John Trapp and I write for the "Value of Perfect Information" exclusively. Trading didn't look too difficult to me 22 years ago, so I began trading October 1987. After that experience and a break from trading, I tried again. This time I was going to be a Bear. Perfect for the 90's. So I didn't have a great start as a trader. I paid a lot for my trading education. I was thrilled when I could finally break even on a regular basis. Trading is an avocation for me - one that I take seriously, and one that I consider the most difficult endeavor I have ever undertaken.
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Thursday, April 22, 2010
Is the Stock Market Correction Over or Just Beginning? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Equities markets are trading near the highs but a short term lateral correction seems to be in progress.
I like to monitor how the market responds to the stimulus of news items. We have not seen an emergence of the earnings season "sell the news" phenomenon as a general rule so far and that is bullish. Select issues have been hit hard if results have disappointed but others have rallied sharply on positive results and the gains have held.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Short the S&P500, The Pain Trade / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
A trading buddy and I frequently talk about the markets, and as always, the conversation turns to the "hardest trade". The "hardest trade" is that trade that has the potential to inflict a lot of pain, but ultimately in the end, it is the right trade. The pain trade is the hardest trade and the trade that yields the best results.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Stock Market Whipsaw Wednesday - Is Los Angeles Burning? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Is Los Angeles Burning?
Well, if not, it may be soon as 3,500 city jobs go on the chopping block including 61 firefighters in an area that routinely bursts into flames. Los Angeles County seeks to eliminate an additional 1,400 positions with both the County and the City looking to trim their budgets down from last year. “The mayor’s budget plan will make it harder to do business here, harder to raise a family and harder to keep neighborhoods safe,” the Coalition of Los Angeles City Unions said on April 16. The group represents 22,000 workers. The mayor’s proposed budget includes $63 million in savings from forcing some employees to take as many as 26 days off without pay.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Rally Looking Toppy / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
From a big-picture perspective, the stock market’s advance off the March 2009 low is nothing more than a huge, bear market rally.
To understand how I come to that conclusion, just look at two classical valuation measures, price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields, in the chart below. You can easily see how this stock market bear, which started in 2000 at record overvaluations, still has a lot of work to do …
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