Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Top Financial Markets Stories of 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
2008 will likely go down in history as the year when all those dire predictions made by Austrian thinkers over the past few years finally came to pass. Decades of excesses finally caught up to America, and in traditional fashion, those in authority tried valiantly to negate those excesses with even more of the same. So, to conclude the year, we'll dig into some of the top stories of 2008. Next week we'll discuss the top stories of 2009 and how they are likely to shape our country and world moving forward.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Stock Markets Still Waiting for Santa Claus Rally / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
The markets started out with a nice push higher early on, as futures were higher before the opening. They stair-stepped up in a small 5-wave advance and reached 1205 on the Nasdaq 100 and 880 on the S&P 500, but weren't able to do much more after the first hour. They then rolled over hard in the morning, bounced around during mid-day, couldn’t mount an advance, and then rolled over and made session lows with about an hour to go. Over the last hour they did come back a bit, but not enough to save the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
U.S. Fed Destined To Become World's Largest Auto Dealership / Stock-Markets / US Auto's
Not content with merely throwing money at the automakers, the Fed has new plans to become the world's largest auto dealership. Details of the plan were buried in this announcement: Fed Opens TALF Loans to All Borrowers, Extends Term .
The Federal Reserve revised its $200 billion program aimed at reviving credit to consumers and small businesses, extending the term of loans to three years from one year.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Market Forecasts 2009- Gold to Soar, U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds Crash / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
The way things look it will soon be impossible - or very difficult and expensive - to obtain physical gold and silver. The first major wave of physical buying has bought up all of the coins and small bar gold and silver available on the market, with the result that if you want any, you must pay a large premium. Right now, the second wave is underway, with astute investors forcing the Comex to deliver, which is having the effect of drawing down their warehouse stocks at a rapid rate. As the Comex is massively leveraged and trades hundreds of times more gold and silver than it has in its possession, it is clear that immediately their warehouse stocks are completely depleted, there will be a mad scramble to buy physical gold and silver in order to meet contract obligations.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Mike Paulenoff Forecasts for Gold, Oil & Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds
Technical strategist Mike Paulenoff, author of MPTrader.com, shares his chartwork early Tuesday on gold, oil, and equity indices ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Gold: Although I have no desire to be exposed to the gold market over the holiday week, my work is setting up for a continuation to the downside of last week's initial pullback from 86.91 to 81.74 in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD). At the very least, the GLD should retest 81.74, which if violated will trigger additional weakness that presses the ETF towards key near-term support at 80.00-79.00. That also happens to coincide with the area that is first of a series of unfilled up-gaps left behind during the early December upmove from 72.91 to 86.91.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Stock Markets in Christmas Wind Down Mode / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Markets are ending this awful year with a whimper as they drift lower in thin volume. Investors are taking some money off the table to buy better (heavily discounted) last minute presents. Sentiment has been further soured by more bad news from the auto sector. The previously immune Toyota have warned on profits for the second time in seven weeks. The market is left to wonder what is the point of spending billions of taxpayer's wedge on basket case Detroit if Toyota can't even win. Then we have the hurdle of all those Madoff redemptions to cope with in early '09.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Financial Markets Review 2008 and Forecasts For 2009 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
What a year! Where are we?
Financial advice - Everyone’s saying ‘thank goodness that year’s over! Phew! That was terrible’. Of course, they’re also saying ‘No-one could possibly have predicted the downturn, the housing crash, the stock market collapse etc’.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
Stock Market Late Snapback Rally Pares Losses / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The markets had another negative session to start the week. They were down for most of the session and stair-stepped lower until about a half hour to go. Then they staged a very strong snapback rally, taking back half the losses on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and three-quarters of the losses on the Dow.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Stock Market Dangerous Developments as Corporate Earnings Contract / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
“One swallow does not a summer make”. (Aristotle) That may be true, but it’s possible that I saw two swallows today, and “summer” is not the season occupying my mind at present.
First, there were reports from across the Northern Hemisphere (USA, Canada, Europe and China) that the sudden cold weather “shouldn’t” be as cold as is being experienced. Commentators are clearly surprised by the ferocity of the savagely cold weather in an era of so-called “man-made global warming”.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
Why Credit Crisis Bail-outs are Bad News for Investors / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
The banks were too big to fail. Everyone agreed on that, it seemed.
But once you give one lot of badly run, bust companies a bail-out, it becomes a lot harder to justify knocking back the rest. And soon everyone has their hand out.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
Auto Bailout Fails To Cheer the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
So the US auto industry is the latest in the seemingly endless stream of disasters that has resulted in a temporary TARP plaster being applied to a haemorrhaging wound . Indices failed to bounce on the bailout news as they have seen all of this before.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Why Falling VIX Could Mean NO Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The answer to a subscriber's puzzling question: "The VIX goes down, and the S&P moves up. The VIX goes up, and the S&P goes down. But, sometimes the VIX goes down and instead of going up, the S&P moves in a sideways trading range . Can you tell me why?" Thanks, DJ
Thanks for the question, it is an important one because if you don't understand why, then you will not trust the VIX (Volatility Index) as an indicator. Investors need to trust their indicators, and when they can't trust them, they need to know why.
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Sunday, December 21, 2008
Gold and Stock Market Bear Attack Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Broad Market Outlook: - Friday the market closed mixed with light volume due to the holiday season. I always use the DOW (DIA) as a market indicator for the overall strength. The chart below shows a simple chart on where the market stands. Currently all the moving averages are trending down or sideways as the market trades at resistance. Prices have been drifting higher on light volume which is not a good sign for the bulls (longs). We are at a point now where the market is going to make a nice run higher or possibly another leg lower.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Zero Interest Rates, Plunging Bond Yields, Slumping Oil Price, Stocks Santa Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
“Americans have always been able to handle austerity and even adversity. Prosperity [greed!] is what is doing us in,” said James Reston , former New York Times journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner.
Another chapter in dealing with the current credit and economic adversity was written on Tuesday when the US Federal Reserve announced a no-holds-barred set of measures in a determined attempt to fix the broken credit machine, revive economic activity and stem the deflationary tide.
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Saturday, December 20, 2008
Stock Market Santa Rally Due to Begin / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: A Santa Clause rally is due to begin Wednesday.
Short Term - Seasonal considerations overwhelm everything else.
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Saturday, December 20, 2008
Stock, Commodities, and Bond Markets 2008 Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
A high altitude view of global markets can be gleaned from monitoring a relatively small group of broad index funds. We think these ten asset categories and related proxy ETFs, provide a quick summary overview of world markets.
Certainly, more granularity could be more helpful, but these ten major asset categories are a good place to start.
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Stock Market, Gold and Oil Fall on Auto Bailout News / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
GM and Chrysler will get $13.4 billion in loans. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC will get $13.4 billion in initial government loans to keep operating in exchange for substantially restructuring their businesses under a rescue plan announced by President George W. Bush. The money will be drawn from the Troubled Asset Relief Program set up to bail out financial institutions. An additional $4 billion would be allocated in February provided the second half of TARP's authorized $700 billion is released by Congress. The funds would allow GM and Chrysler to keep operating until March.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
How to Play the Obama Infrastructure Building Boom / Stock-Markets / Infrastructure
U.S. infrastructure is crumbling... trillions could be spent in the next few years... and President-elect Obama has told the states to “Use It or Lose it.” Here's how to profit. If you drive on U.S. roads, you probably don't need to be told – the country's infrastructure is in pretty bad shape.
As a nation, Americans like to look forward. We prefer to spend our money building new things (rather than fixing up old things). Issues like repair and maintenance are back burnered for other priorities in state and federal budgets. Over time, the cost of neglect rises.
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Stock Market Crash Wave Count Update / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
Catch A Wave - Brian Wilson, Beach Boys: Catch a wave and you're sittin' on top of the world.There is another interpretation of "catch a wave". That interpretation is Elliott Wave. I talked about waves at length on October 10th in S&P 500 Crash Count .
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Extreme Technical Levels Point to Stocks and Crude Oil Snapback Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
As we speak, the VIX is trading BELOW its 11/04 low at 44.25, which COULD imply that the e-SPH (890.25) and cash S&P 500, including the SPDRs (AMEX: SPY), are about to take off to the upside. As I noted on Thursday while the VIX was at 44.62 and the e-SPH at 903.50: "Purely from a chart perspective, the pattern that has developed-- and its near-future implications-- suggests that the VIX has lower values directly ahead-- possibly acutely lower when compared to where it has come from since late-October.Read full article... Read full article...