Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, October 06, 2008
Stock Market Rebounds from Crash Low Amidst Extreme Volatility / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The markets had another historic day today with extreme volatility both up and down, mostly to the downside early. The indices opened sharply lower on a gap-down and slid hard, had a sharp morning bounce that took the NDX from 1358 back to 1406 , nearly a 50-point rally. At the same point the SPX went from 1027 to 1056, but they were unable to sustain.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Bailout Plan Continuation of a Corrupt Banking System / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
Welcome to the Weekly Report. A couple of weeks ago one of my subscribers asked me this question: "Does your scenario change of how you think things will play out i.e. bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.......Deflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Global Credit Freeze Prompts Panic Bailouts to Prevent Financial Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
In a sea of red, government bonds and are gold both rising as the world's banking system cracks under the weight of the biggest debt expansion in history.Credit Freeze Prompts New Bailouts
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Monday, October 06, 2008
The Big Bailout of 2008 Will FAIL to Rescue Crashing Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
The chickens come home to roost - You get a sense that America's chickens have come home to roost. Instead of learning from our past mistakes though, as the idiom above is meant to suggest, the nation appears intent on compounding them. The Great American Bailout of 2008 is simply more of the same -- more debt, more easy money, more moral hazard, more taxpayer responsibility, and more government intervention. Quite literally, the government has once again applied a band aid, papered the problem over and delayed once more what will certainly be an even worse day of reckoning. Yes, the chickens have come home to roost, but for all the roosting all we have gotten is more chickens.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Crashing Nasdaq QQQQ Have Unfinished Business on the Downside / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
While the cash SPX violated its 62% support level of the 2002-2007 bull phase, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have just tested the similar level at 33.33, which thus far has held the selling onslaught. In that my weekly RSI momentum gauge is making new lows, coupled with breakdown of the SPX, suggests strongly that the Q's still have some unfinished biz on the downside. My next near-term optimal targets are 31.70/50 and then 30.00-28.90.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Bailout Dramas Generate More Stock Market Black Mondays / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Another dramatic weekend saw four banks receive government bail outs, not to mention the further file sales and mergers. Mondays have been chaos for the last few weeks, as governments on both sides of the pond prefer to work through major announcements, mergers, and bailouts, over the relative calm of the weekend. Although Bradford and Bingley grabbed the headlines in the UK, governments in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxemburg had to throw billions at Fortis, while Germany guaranteed loans to Hypo Real Estate. In the US, investors waved goodbye to Wachovio as a takeover by Wells Fargo pleased traders, in part as it indicated further mergers and acquisitions might be on the cards.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Nasdaq Break Below 2000 Confirms Severe Collapse of the Economy / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Before I get in to what took place today I want to discuss a very important breakdown in the Nas today. If we go back to late 2005 and again late 2006 there is a very nice double bottom at Nas 2000. Yes, we closed below it yesterday but only by 1% and with the House decision on the bill today, it was an important day to see if the Nas could get itself back above that critical 2000 level. The fact that it feel more than 1% to 1947 confirms officially that 2000 break. A triple bottom breakdown. Nasty stuff. When an index retests a low as the Nas did late in 2006 in is very important that this level gets defended on any future selling.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Stock Market Approaching Significant Low for a Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Current Position of the Market
Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over earlier than anticipated and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2012-2014.
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Sunday, October 05, 2008
Credit Chaos Next– The Mother of all Bank Runs? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Nouriel Roubini: Next – the mother of all bank runs?“It's plain that the current financial crisis is worsening in spite of – or perhaps because of – the Treasury rescue plan. “The strains in financial markets are becoming more, rather than less, severe in spite of the nuclear option of a $700 billion package: Interbank spreads are widening and are at a level never seen before; credit spreads are widening to new peaks; short-term Treasury yields are going back to near-zero levels as there is flight to safety; credit default swap (CDS) spreads for financial institutions are rising to extreme levels as the ban on shorting of financial stock has moved the pressures on financial firms to the CDS market; and stock markets around the world have reacted very negatively to this rescue package.
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Sunday, October 05, 2008
Fear Grips Stock Markets as Economies Tip Into Recession / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
Whew – what a wild week! Global stock markets and commodities tumbled, whereas government bonds and the US dollar surged amid mounting fears that the ongoing turmoil in financial markets was foreshadowing a hard landing for the US and Europe.
The first-ever trillion-dollar loss (as measured by the Dow Jones Willshire 5000 Index) on Wall Street came on Monday in the wake of the US House of Representatives failing to gather enough votes to pass the $700 billion bank rescue package. Globally, more than $1.7 trillion got wiped off the MSCI World Index.
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Sunday, October 05, 2008
Stock Markets Oversold Due for a Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: We are probably near a tradable rally.
Short Term - Last Monday the financial system bailout was rejected for lack of pork, that oversight was corrected Friday. News of the bailout failure sent volume ratios on both the NYSE and NASDAQ to extremes not seen since October 19, 1987. Other breadth ratios hit extremes rarely seen.
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Saturday, October 04, 2008
Stocks Secular Bear Market Immune to Bailout Government Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By every historical measure the equity markets slipped into a secular bear market in 2000. As a result, we began to see efforts by the powers that be to keep the market afloat. I have stated all along that manipulation, will ultimately not work. I have also stated all along that all this will do is make matters worse in the end. Well, I would think that everyone can now see, matters are indeed much worse. Yet, the Fed, the Treasury and the politicians continue to think that they can “fix” the problem by throwing more money at it. They do not understand that they can't “fix” this economic crisis. They also do not understand that it is their trying to “fix” things in the past that has created the current situation. All markets as well as the economy must both inhale and exhale. They are trying to prevent the exhaling and it ain't gonna work.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 04, 2008
Profiting Amid Financial Markets Chaos / Stock-Markets / Credit Crunch
The Greatest Lie Ever Told
Now that the authorities essentially have received what they asked for, it will be with great interest that we will observe the equity market reaction. Given the potential response to mass recognition that the entire financial system may be nothing more than a gargantuan sham, it would not surprise us in the least to witness a four-digit one-day decline in the Dow before this bear is over.
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Saturday, October 04, 2008
Bailout Does Not Change Bearish Stock Market Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Oink, oink! While attempting to craft a bill that would supposedly restore confidence in the financial markets, lawmaker just couldn't help not putting in goodies that have nothing to do with the bailout. This bill started with three pages of text. It has now expanded to over 400 pages. A partial list of earmarks in the 451-page bill includes a $2 million tax benefit for makers of wooden arrows for children; a $100 million tax break to benefit auto racetrack owners; $192 million in rebates on excise taxes for the Puerto Rican and Virgin Islands rum industry; $148 million in tax relief for U.S. wool fabric producers; and a $49 million tax benefit for fishermen and other plaintiffs who sued over the 1989 tanker Exxon Valdez spill.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
Nasdaq Q's Recover / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
After pressing beneath the lower channel line yesterday, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have recovered and now are trading above the lower support plateau (37.00) in what so far is classic reversal behavior using channel analysis. Now the Q's need to hurdle and sustain above the first important resistance level at 38.00/20 to elevate my technical confidence for a meaningful upside reversal. However, to trigger significant reversal signals, the Q's must hurdle and sustain above 39.00/30 to complete a Sept-Oct double bottom at 36.75 (9/29) and 37.02 (10/2). For now, ahead of the "The Vote," I am still watching the unfolding micro pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
Bailout Plan Bullish for Stock Market? What Happens Next? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
One major international bank after the other is collapsing and is either being nationalized or sold off in sections. Although passed by the US Senate, the House of Representatives has yet to approve a bail-out plan for beleaguered banks.
Globally there is a sudden shortage of US dollars in money markets. Central banks of major powers are injecting enormous amounts of money into money-market systems worldwide.
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Friday, October 03, 2008
Deleveraging Markets Demand Active Investors / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Jay Matulich writes: What do you see happening with the markets?
What's going on with the markets is what I've been talking with you about for the last year -- that there's a great unwinding of leverage going on, and it's going to continue until at the earliest the middle of next year. What that has done is put a tremendous amount of pressure on selling all asset classes. This winding down of leverage has gone from subprime into other mortgage products and mutated into other areas of the debt market. This has caused all asset classes to be under pressure, since basically all the asset classes from March 2003 went up together, a correlation of 1.0, except for the dollar. As leverage gets unwound all positions get taken off, and it's been very vicious.
Friday, October 03, 2008
Wall Street Black Monday 1500 Point Crash Prevented by "Specialists" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Martin Hutchinson writes: The 777.68-point nosedive in the Dow Jones Industrial Averageon Monday was the single-biggest point drop ever, eradicating $1.2 trillion in shareholder wealth, and leaving mainstream investors feeling shell-shocked after the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion banking bailout bill.
But here's what most people don't know.
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Friday, October 03, 2008
Time for Investors to Panic! SEC Abandons Sound Accounting Practices / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
The SEC about-face on Mark to Market…the lunacy continues. This means it's time to run away.
I was not the only one who has been saying that the accountancy rules that mandated Mark to Market valuation of assets caused the Credit Crisis. And that this was making things worse.
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Thursday, October 02, 2008
Stock Market Monthly Trend Analysis- October 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
This is a free monthly newsletter on stock market trends to help you to learn to invest. Following the trend is a proven way to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Basic technical analysis provides the tools to identify and follow the trends of the market as determined by the S&P 500.
It is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.
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